U.S. Housing Starts Strengthen Unexpectedly in July
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Increase brings starts to five-month high.
- Multi-family starts surge while single-family starts rise moderately.
- Building permits decline is led by multi-family.
Total housing starts increased 5.2% (12.9% y/y) in July to 1.428 million (SAAR) after rising 5.9% in June to 1.358 million, revised from 1.321 million, and falling 8.3% to 1.282 in May, revised from 1.263 million, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Total starts in July remained 21.5% below their peak of 1.820 million units reached in April 2022. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 1.30 million starts in July.
Single-family starts in July rose 2.8% (7.8% y/y) to 939,000 after falling 3.8% in June to 913,000, revised from 883,000, and edging 0.1% higher in May to 949,000, revised from 926,000. Multi-family starts surged 9.9% (24.1% y/y) in July to 489,000 after strengthening 33.6% in June to 445,000, revised from 438,000, and declining 26.0% to a little-revised 333,000 units in May.
Housing starts in the Midwest surged 33.3% (40.8% y/y) in July to 252,000 after rising 3.3% in June. Adding to this increase, starts in the South rose 19.2% (29.5% y/y) to 833,000 after holding steady in June. Offsetting these gains, starts in the West declined 27.5% (-14.4% y/y) to 232,000 after rising 8.1% in June. Housing starts in the Northeast declined 26.0% (-35.5% y/y) to 111,000 after increasing 44.2% in June.
Building permits declined 2.8% (-5.7% y/y) last month to 1.354 million after easing slightly in June. It was the fourth consecutive monthly decline. Single-family permits rose 0.5% (-7.9% y/y) in July to 870,000 after weakening for four straight months. Multi-family permits fell 8.2% (-1.4% y/y) to 484,000 after rising 6.5% in June. Building permits in the Northeast rose 25.2% (-7.9% y/y), and they edged up 0.5% (12.9% y/y) in the Midwest. In the South, building permits declined 4.6% (-6.1% y/y) while in the West, building permits weakened 10.1% (-15.2% y/y).
The housing starts and building permits figures can be found in Haver’s USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
