U.S. Consumer Price Inflation Firms in August

The Consumer Price Index increased 0.4% in August after rising 0.2% in July and 0.3% in June. The increase outpaced the 0.3% gain expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The 2.9% y/y increase in the headline CPI in August was the strongest since January and was increased from 2.3% in April. The y/y gain matched last year’s increase and remained below the 9.1% peak in June 2022. The CPI excluding food & energy increased an expected 0.3% last month after a 0.3% July rise and a 0.2% gain in June. The 3.1% y/y August rise compared to 3.1% in July. It remained below the 6.6% peak in September 2022.

Energy prices rose 0.7% (0.2% y/y) last month after falling 1.1% in July. Gasoline prices rebounded 1.9% (-6.6% y/y) after falling 2.2% in July. Fuel oil prices slipped 0.3% (-0.5% y/y) after rising 1.8% in July. Natural gas prices fell 1.6% (+13.8% y/y) following a 0.9% decline, and electricity prices edged 0.2% higher (6.2% y/y) after a 0.1% slip in July.

Food prices rose 0.5% (3.2% y/y) last month after holding steady in July. Egg prices were unchanged (+10.9% y/y), after falling 3.9%. Meat, poultry & fish prices strengthened 1.1% (5.4% y/y) after increasing 0.7%, while dairy product prices edged up 0.1% (1.3% y/y), after rising 0.7% in July. Cereal & bakery product costs also increased a minimal 0.1% (1.1% y/y) following a 0.2% decline while fruit & vegetable prices strengthened 1.6% (1.9% y/y), after holding steady in July. Nonalcoholic beverage prices increased 0.6% (4.6% y/y) in August after falling 0.5% in July.

Goods prices less food and energy rose 0.3% in August after two straight 0.2% increases. The 1.5% y/y price increase was increased from a 1.9% y/y decline in both July and August of 2024. Prices of used cars and trucks jumped 1.0% (6.0% y/y) last month, after rising 0.5% in July, while new vehicle costs improved 0.3% (-0.7% y/y) after holding steady. Apparel prices increased 0.5% (0.2% y/y) in August after rising 0.1%. Appliance prices rose 0.4% (0.3% y/y), after falling 0.9%. Home furnishings prices edged 0.1% higher (2.8% y/y) after rising 0.7% in July. Recreation product costs held steady (0.1% y/y) in August, after a 0.4% increase. Education & communication product costs declined 0.3% (-3.8% y/y) last month, after falling 1.3%. Medical care goods prices fell 0.3% (NSA, 0.0% y/y) after two months of 0.1% increase.

Services prices less energy strengthened 0.3% in August (3.6% y/y) after rising 0.4% in July. Shelter prices (35.5% of the CPI) rose 0.4% (3.6% y/y), after two months of 0.2% increase, as owners’ equivalent rent of primary residences increased 0.4% (4.0% y/y) after three straight months of 0.3% gain. The cost of lodging away from home rebounded 2.3% in August (-2.6% y/y), after five straight months of decline. Rents of primary residences gained 0.3% (3.5% y/y) in August for a second straight month. Transportation service prices jumped 1.0% (3.5% y/y) after gaining 0.8% and the cost of motor vehicle insurance held steady (4.7% y/y) in August, after rising 0.1%. Public transportation costs increased 3.6% (2.2% y/y) after rising 3.0% during July. The cost of medical services eased 0.1% (4.2% y/y) after a 0.8% rise, and the cost of recreation services fell 0.2% (3.6% y/y) after rising 0.4% in July. Education & communication services prices rose 0.1% (1.0% y/y) after increasing 0.2% in July.

The Consumer Price figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.