State Coincident Indexes in September 2022
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The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's state coincident indexes in September were again somewhat softer than earlier, and somewhat dispersed. 11 states report declines from August to September, with Montana down .59 percent. On the plus side, both Hawaii and New Jersey clocked increases above 1 percent and New York was just shy at .99 (the Northeast was strong, with Massachusetts and Maryland both comparable to New York, and Pennsylvania at .59 percent). At the three-month horizon, six states declined, with West Virginia and Montana, as in the initial August report, both off by more than one percent. Hawaii and Indiana both had increases above 2 percent. Over the past 12 months, Massachusetts's index was up more than 9 1/2 percent, and 25 other states had increase of at least 5 percent. Four states (Arizona, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, and Mississippi) had increases of less than 3 percent over this period.
As always seems to be the case, the independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 (1.02 percent) and 12 (4.98 percent) months look weaker than the state figures would imply.
Connecticut and Hawaii remain under-by very small margins--their pre-pandemic peaks in this series.
Charles Steindel
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Charles Steindel has been editor of Business Economics, the journal of the National Association for Business Economics, since 2016. From 2014 to 2021 he was Resident Scholar at the Anisfield School of Business, Ramapo College of New Jersey. From 2010 to 2014 he was the first Chief Economist of the New Jersey Department of the Treasury, with responsibilities for economic and revenue projections and analysis of state economic policy. He came to the Treasury after a long career at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he played a major role in forecasting and policy advice and rose to the rank of Senior Vice-President. He has served in leadership positions in a number of professional organizations. In 2011 he received the William F. Butler Award from the New York Association for Business Economics, is a fellow of NABE and of the Money Marketeers of New York University, and has received several awards for articles published in Business Economics. In 2017 he delivered Ramapo College's Sebastian J. Raciti Memorial Lecture. He is a member of the panel for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters and of the Committee on Research in Income and Wealth. He has published papers in a range of areas, and is the author of Economic Indicators for Professionals: Putting the Statistics into Perspective. He received his bachelor's degree from Emory University, his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and is a National Association for Business Economics Certified Business EconomistTM.