Who is most and least vulnerable? Least vulnerable: Russia, Brazil, Philippines, South Africa, Indonesia, India, and Malaysia. Most vulnerable: Vietnam, Taiwan, Mexico, Thailand, and the EU.
In this analysis, we examine 16 economies—including the EU, Canada, Mexico, Japan, eight additional Asian countries, and the BRICS. Each is ranked from 1 (least vulnerable) to 16 (most vulnerable) based on four key variables:
1. US reciprocal tariff rates 2. The US trade deficit with each country 3. Dependency on exports to the US 4. Overall economic dependency on exports
An aggregate vulnerability score is calculated by summing the rankings across these metrics. A higher total score indicates greater vulnerability to US trade actions. Investment recommendations are drawn from both a country's exposure to US tariffs and its business cycle fundamentals. While the framework may initially appear complex, its logic becomes clearer through the analysis.
Tariff Exposure
Figure 1 illustrates the total tariff increases—both proposed and enacted—by the US on a country-by-country basis. This includes the reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2 and previous measures such as the 25% duties on imports from Mexico and Canada. The effective US tariff rate on imports from China now stands at a staggering 145%.
China ranks as the most exposed (rank 16), followed by Vietnam (46% tariffs, rank 15), Thailand (37%), and Taiwan and Indonesia (32%). Russia evaded Trump's 10% global US import duty, primarily due to the existing sanctions framework. It is also likely that, in a bid to facilitate a Ukraine-Russia peace deal and negotiate a minerals agreement, Trump chose not to further antagonise Putin. Brazil and the Philippines have also seen relatively modest tariff hikes.