Introducing

Sharmila Whelan

The founder of Westbourne Research (www.westbourne-research.com), Sharmila Whelan is a seasoned Global Geopolitical-Macro Strategist with nearly three decades of experience advising buy-side clients on multi-asset investment strategies and asset allocations. Her career has been defined by her differentiated thinking, a deep understanding of the intricate connections between global geopolitics, macro and policy dynamics, and the Austrian business cycle approach to economic analysis. She has counseled governmental bodies such as the CIA, the US State Department, the British High Commission, DFID, and China’s NDRC.

Sharmila has held prominent roles in both London and Hong Kong, serving as Managing Director at Aletheia Capital, Director at Merrill Lynch Bank of America, Senior Economist at CLSA, and Asia Regional Economist at BP Plc. In 2022, Bloomberg recognised her as one of the UK's "12 New Expert Voices." She is a frequent media commentator on Bloomberg TV and radio, BBC World Business News, and CNBC, and is a sought-after speaker at high-profile events such as the Financial Times Wealth Summit and CFA UK & India conferences. Sharmila also contributes opinion pieces to Financial Times Professional Wealth Management and the Economist Group’s EIU.

Publications by Sharmila Whelan

• Global| May 05 2025

  Trump’s Trade Tariff War: Winners and Losers

  Who is most and least vulnerable? Least vulnerable: Russia, Brazil, Philippines, South Africa, Indonesia, India, and Malaysia. Most vulnerable: Vietnam, Taiwan, Mexico, Thailand, and the EU.

  In this analysis, we examine 16 economies—including the EU, Canada, Mexico, Japan, eight additional Asian countries, and the BRICS. Each is ranked from 1 (least vulnerable) to 16 (most vulnerable) based on four key variables:

  1. US reciprocal tariff rates 2. The US trade deficit with each country 3. Dependency on exports to the US 4. Overall economic dependency on exports

  An aggregate vulnerability score is calculated by summing the rankings across these metrics. A higher total score indicates greater vulnerability to US trade actions. Investment recommendations are drawn from both a country's exposure to US tariffs and its business cycle fundamentals. While the framework may initially appear complex, its logic becomes clearer through the analysis.

  Tariff Exposure

  Figure 1 illustrates the total tariff increases—both proposed and enacted—by the US on a country-by-country basis. This includes the reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2 and previous measures such as the 25% duties on imports from Mexico and Canada. The effective US tariff rate on imports from China now stands at a staggering 145%.

  China ranks as the most exposed (rank 16), followed by Vietnam (46% tariffs, rank 15), Thailand (37%), and Taiwan and Indonesia (32%). Russia evaded Trump's 10% global US import duty, primarily due to the existing sanctions framework. It is also likely that, in a bid to facilitate a Ukraine-Russia peace deal and negotiate a minerals agreement, Trump chose not to further antagonise Putin. Brazil and the Philippines have also seen relatively modest tariff hikes.

  by:Sharmila Whelan

  |in:Viewpoints
• Malaysia| Apr 02 2025

  Malaysia At Turning Point

  Malaysia’s business cycle indicator assessment doesn’t make cheerful reading. Among eight Asian countries in our analysis, Malaysia’s overall indicator score ranks second lowest, just above Indonesia.

  The profit cycle remains in a downswing. Since 2015, the return on equity for listed companies has stayed below the pre-pandemic (2013–2019) average of 10.8%. However, returns have improved for the second consecutive year, reaching just under 10% in 2023. Corporate balance sheets remain healthy, despite modest declines in cash flow and retained earnings per share. The credit cycle has yet to turn, with the two-year real cost of borrowing rising to 2.8%, exceeding the upper 2% threshold—an indication that monetary policy remains tight.

  That said, Malaysia is in a stronger position than Indonesia, and we are overweight on Malaysian equities. The stabilisation of the profit cycle signals that the Malaysian business cycle is approaching a sustainable upswing. The key reason for our overweight stance this year lies in Figure 1.

  by:Sharmila Whelan

  |in:Viewpoints
• Global| Mar 07 2025

  Global Foreign Direct Investment – Drivers & Beneficiaries

  Historically investment has gone where economic incentive and returns are best, which in turn has driven specialisation, innovation and trade.

  Venice, the richest and most successful European economy from the 11th to the 16th century, used economic incentives to attract foreign investment. Venice created the institutional foundations for commercial capitalism by guaranteeing property rights and the enforceability of contracts. This combined with an efficient fiscal system that was favourable to merchant profits encouraged capital accumulation and specialisation while keeping costs low.

  The Dutch Republic’s ascent in the 14th century was underpinned by the same model as Venice’s, as was the industrialisation of countries that followed. Each became a magnate for FDI. In early 1500 England adopted the Dutch economic model of industrial specialisation supported by a sound legal, financial and tax system.

  Historically, foreign capital and entrepreneurs have played crucial roles in transferring technology and in helping drive local innovation. Britain is credited as the father of the industrial revolution but all the major innovations that drove the initial British industrial expansion came from the technically more advanced countries at the time - Germany, The Netherlands, Italy and France.

  In the United States, the rapid transfer of technology from Britain, along with expanding trade and inward investment—coupled with America's abundant land and mineral resources—accelerated its industrialisation. By 1913 it was the US not Britain that operated closest to the technological frontier.

  The rest is history – the rise of Japan, starting 1868, the Asian Tigers and China in the late 1970s.

  Foreign direct investment flows

  Figure 1 shows that while global FDI tend to be volatile from year-to-year, FDI as a share of global GDP, has risen through recessions, crises, geopolitical tensions, trade battles and wars. The exceptions are the Global Financial Crisis, the worst financial market meltdown since the 1929 crash, and the pandemic, when economies ground to a halt.

  by:Sharmila Whelan

  |in:Viewpoints
• China| Feb 03 2025

  China: Yet to Bottom

  The Chinese corporate profit cycle is worsening, which together with risk aversion in the household sector, signal the economy is yet to bottom.

  Manufacturing is struggling

  In business cycle analysis framework the profit cycle is the single most important business cycle indicator. Profits are the core driver of economic activity. It underpins investment decisions, drives innovation and the fluctuations in economic activity. The profit cycle is the leading indicator of the business cycle and marks the tipping points. Moreover in a downturn the stabilisation of the profit cycle precedes the bottoming of the economy. The Chinese corporate profit cycle downswing deepened through the first three quarters of 2024 (Figure 1).

  by:Sharmila Whelan

  |in:Viewpoints
• Global| Jan 13 2025

  Headwinds and Tailwinds in 2025

  A soft landing has been achieved, and the world economy is in the expansion phase of the business cycle. There will be greater geopolitical and pollical stability. However it is important to understand the headwinds and tailwinds that will shape the global economy in 2025.

  by:Sharmila Whelan

  |in:Viewpoints
• Global| Dec 16 2024

  Globalisation: Same, same but different

  Globalisation is not going backwards. Figure 1 is a case in point. The chart illustrates the remarkable growth in global exports. By the end of 2023, global exports had increased 459-fold compared to 1948, reaching an impressive $24 trn. The global financial crisis (GFC), the US led trade war, the pandemic, the cost-of-living crisis, China’s economic malaise and conflicts have disrupted rather changed the trend. Again while global trade-openness, calculated as the sum of global exports and imports expressed as a percentage of world GDP, has been volatile, there is no sign of trade openness reversing decisively. Global trade openness has averaged, 46% since the GFC compared with 41% in the decade prior to GFC.

  by:Sharmila Whelan

  |in:Viewpoints
• Global| Nov 08 2024

  In The Era Of Fiscal Activism

  Regardless of who was going to become the next US President, Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, US debt is headed one way and that is up, it is only a question of magnitude. It is not just the US, globally public debt is rising, led by advanced countries and China. World public debt is forecast to exceed US$100trn in 2024, of which 35% will be accounted for by the US and 100% of GDP 2030 according to IMF forecasts (Figure 1).

  by:Sharmila Whelan

  |in:Viewpoints
• India| Oct 04 2024

  India’s Economic Rebound and Growth Prospects

  India’s economy is rebounding, with the business cycle upswing becoming more pronounced and widespread. Although GDP growth slowed slightly in the second quarter, moderating to 1.1% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) from 1.3% QoQ, this was largely due to a contraction in government spending, inventories, and exports. Importantly, both consumption and investment spending grew robustly, marking the fastest pace since late 2021 and early 2022, respectively. Leading indicators remain positive, and the economic fundamentals are supportive of continued growth.

  The corporate profit cycle is in full swing, with company balance sheets in rude health, positioning businesses to increase investment. Corporate debt-to-equity ratios have declined significantly, and corporate debt as a percentage of GDP is well below global averages. Consequently, the debt service-to-equity ratio is now below the 2007-2023 average, and the interest coverage ratio remains stable—44x for IT, 7.5x for manufacturing, and 1.7x for non-IT services. Infrastructure companies, buoyed by optimism, are increasing their spending, according to the RBI’s Q1 FY24/25 Services and Infrastructure Outlook Survey. Capacity utilisation is tight, and order backlogs are rising. Additionally, monthly data shows upward trends in the capital goods sector and the eight-core industry infrastructure index.

  Public sector banks, which dominate the financial sector, have never been stronger. Non-performing loans (NPLs) are at a 12-year low due to a sustained reduction in new NPLs and higher write-offs. Provisioning levels are at their highest since 2007, and asset quality among large borrowers continues to improve. The sector is well-capitalised, with average capital adequacy ratios of 16.8%, comfortably above the RBI’s 11% regulatory minimum. Private credit is growing at double-digit rates, with strong borrowing demand across industries, services, small and medium enterprises, large corporations, mortgages, and big-ticket consumer goods.

  by:Sharmila Whelan

  |in:Viewpoints