Tom Moeller

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At today's meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed indicated it will continue to reduce the stimulus it has been providing to the economy.

The Fed announced that it will lessen its planned purchases of Treasury securities to $20 billion per month from $40 billion as indicated at the last meeting, and to pare purchases of agency securities to $10 billion per month from $20 billion.

The meeting statement indicated that the federal funds rate target will remain in a range of 0.0% to 0.25%, where it has been since March 2020, "but the Committee expects it will soon be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate."

Specifically addressing inflation, the Fed indicated, "Supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and the reopening of the economy have continued to contribute to elevated levels of inflation."

The Fed went on to state, "Progress on vaccinations and an easing of supply constraints are expected to support continued gains in economic activity and employment as well as a reduction in inflation."

The statement issued following today's meeting can be found [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20220126a.htm).

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FOMC Will Further Lessen Liquidity and Raise Rates Soon

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The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.5% (2.2% y/y) during April after easing 0.1% in March, revised from a 0.2% increase, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. A 0.3% gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The PPI excluding food and energy strengthened 0.5% (2.4% y/y) after easing 0.1% in March. It was the largest increase in three months. A 0.2% rise had been expected. Producer prices excluding food, energy & trade services rose 0.4% (3.1% y/y) in April following increases of 0.2% and 0.4% in the prior two months.

Final demand energy prices rose 2.0% last month (1.0% y/y) after a 1.3% decline. Gasoline prices rose 5.4% (-1.9% y/y) after falling 3.0% in March. Electric power prices rose 0.3% (4.5% y/y) following a 0.7% increase. Food prices were off 0.7% (+0.5% y/y) after increasing 0.4% in March. The gain reflected a 7.3% increase (-7.5% y/y) in fruit & melon prices as well as an 11.2% increase (21.7% y/y) in fresh egg prices. Offsetting these increases, beef & veal costs fell 5.9% (+10.8% y/y) and fresh & dried vegetable prices eased 18.7% (NSA, -23.9% y/y). Grain prices weakened 4.5% (-35.6% y/y).

Prices for goods less food & energy rose 0.3% (1.6% y/y) in April after holding steady in March. Finished consumer goods prices increased 0.1% (1.9% y/y) for a second straight month. Core nondurable goods prices rose 0.1% (2.4% y/y) after holding steady in March. Durable consumer goods prices also edged 0.1% higher (1.1% y/y) after rising 0.3% in March. Capital equipment prices rose 0.2% (2.8% y/y), the weakest increase in four months, while government purchased goods prices rose 0.3% (2.1% y/y).

Prices for final demand services increased 0.6% last month (2.7% y/y) after easing 0.1% in March. Trade services prices strengthened 0.8% (-0.3% y/y) after a 1.0% decline. Prices for final demand transportation and warehousing services fell 0.6% (+0.3% y/y) after a 0.2% increase. Services prices less these costs increased 0.6% (4.4% y/y) following two straight 0.3% increases. Prices of travel accommodation services strengthened 2.4% (-1.2% y/y).

Construction costs rose 0.1% in April (-0.8 y/y) for the second consecutive month.

Prices for intermediate demand processed goods increased 0.6% (-0.5% y/y) in April after falling 0.5% in March. Processed energy goods prices rose 1.6%, while food prices were off 0.2%. The index for intermediate demand unprocessed goods jumped 3.2% (-4.6% y/y).

The PPI data are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Further detail is contained in **PPI** and **PPIR**. The expectations figures are available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Core goods prices rise moderately.
- Services prices surge after a slight decline.
- Energy prices jump, but food prices decline.

U.S. Producer Price Strength in April is Pronounced; March Revised Lower

Winnie Tapasanun

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The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rebounded to 89.7 in April, the first monthly increase since December, from 88.5 in March, according to the April 2024 Small Business Economic Trends survey conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business. The index, while slightly up from a low of 89.0 in April 2023, had been below the 50-year average of 98 for the 28th straight month; it was also down from a high of 102.5 in June 2021. Seven of the 10 index components rose, two fell, and one was unchanged. The NFIB Small Business Uncertainty Index increased to 78 in April, the highest level since September, from 77 in March; it was up from 72 in April 2023 and a low of 55 in June 2022.

The outlook for business conditions in the next six months remained deeply negative in the latest survey. The net balance of respondents expecting the economy to improve fell to -37% in April, the third monthly fall in four months, after increasing slightly to -36% in March, but it was up from a record-low -61% in June 2022. Expected real sales improved to a net -12% in April after falling 8 pts. to -18% in March, indicating continued pessimism at a less severe pace. The latest reading was up from a low of -21% in May 2023 and a low of -29% in July 2022. A net -13% of respondents reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, down from -10% reported in March; these numbers were up from a low of -17% in November.

Plans to make capital outlays rose to 22% in April, the first m/m rise in four months, from 20% in March. These readings were up slightly from a low of 19% in April 2023 but down from a high of 27% in July 2023 and a high of 31% in October 2021. Plans to expand the business registered at 4% in April and March, the lowest reading since May 2023. The latest figure, while slightly up from a low of 2% in March 2023, was below a high of 11% in December 2021 and a high of 15% in June 2021. Meanwhile, expected credit conditions declined to -9% in April, the lowest reading since November, after falling 2 pts. to -8% in March; the latest figure was also down from a high of -4% in May 2022 and a high of -3% in November 2021.

Labor markets remained tight but seemed to ease slightly. Fifty-one percent of respondents reported that qualified workers to fill job openings were hard to find in April, following 48% in March and 51% in February. These figures, however, were below a high of 57% in September 2023, a high of 61% in May 2022, and a peak of 62% in September 2021. A net 12% planned to increase employment in April, slightly up from 11% in March, but it was down from a high of 26% in May 2022 and well below a high of 32% in August 2021. Notably, 40% reported positions not able to be filled in April, the highest reading since December, following 37% in March and February (37% was the lowest reading since January 2021). These figures were historically high; however, having remained below a high of 51% in May 2022. Overall earnings trends increased slightly to -27% in April, still a poor reading, from -29% in March; these numbers were below a high of -18% in March 2023.

On the pricing front, inflation pressures, while trending down, remained at an inflationary level. The net percent raising their average selling prices eased to 25% in April after rising 7 pts. to 28% in March; it was meaningfully down from 33% in April 2023 and a high of 66% in March 2022. The percentage planning to raise prices fell to 26% in April after a three-point rise to 33% in March, registering the lowest reading since April 2023’s 21%; these figures were well below a high of 52% in March 2022.

Wage inflation remained high as a net 38% of respondents raised compensation during the last three months, unchanged from 38% reported in the previous survey. Nevertheless, it was down from a high of 46% in February 2023 and a peak of 50% in January 2022. A net 21% of firms planned to raise worker compensation in the next three months, unchanged from 21% in the previous survey. However, it was down from a high of 30% in November and a high of 32% in October 2022.

Inflation continued to be an issue facing small businesses, as reported by 22% of NFIB members in April as the single most important problem. It was down from 25% in March and well below a peak of 37% in July 2022. The quality of labor was the second important concern with 19% in April, up from 18% in March. Other concerns (in April vs. March) included taxes (15% vs. 14%), the cost of labor (11% vs. 10%), and government requirements (8% vs. 6%).

According to the Small Business Administration, there are 33 million small businesses in the United States, which employ 62 million workers. The NFIB surveys anywhere from 500 to 2000 respondents each month and the typical firm employs 10 people and reports gross sales of about $500,000 a year. The NFIB figures can be found in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

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- Apr. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index inches up 1.2 pts. to 89.7, the first m/m gain since December.
- Expected real sales increase to -12% after falling to -18%, still indicating pessimism.
- Business conditions in the next six months decline to -37%, down for the third month in four.
- Inflation (22%) is top business problem, followed by Quality of Labor (19%).

U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Edges Up in April While Inflation Remains the Number One Problem

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Retail gasoline prices for all grades declined to $3.73 per gallon (+2.3 y/y) in the week ended May 13 from $3.77 in the prior week. It was the lowest price in five weeks and compare to a low of $3.18 in the middle of January. The recent high stands at $4.00 per gallon in the third week of September, and the all-time high was $5.11 in the week ended June 13, 2022. Retail prices for on-highway diesel fuel slipped to an average $3.85 per gallon (-1.3% y/y) last week from $3.89 in the prior week. A recent low of $3.77 per gallon occurred in the week ended July 3, 2023.

The average price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil declined to $79.32 per barrel (+10.1% y/y) in the week ended May 7 from an average $81.07 in the prior week. It remained well above its low of $69.37 per barrel in the week of June 30, 2023. The price remained below a high of $91.45 in the week of September 29, 2023. The all-time high was seen in the week of July 4, 2008 at $142.46 per barrel. Yesterday, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was $79.12 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude oil declined to $83.36 per barrel (+9.9% y/y) in the week ended May 10 compared to $84.82 in the prior week. The price of Brent has recently ranged from a low of $73.55 in the week ended June 30, 2023 to a high of $127.40 in the week ended June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $83.06 per barrel.

Natural gas prices strengthened to an average of $2.00/mmbtu (-4.8% y/y) in the week ended May 10 from $1.64/mmbtu in the prior week. These compare to a high of $3.20 averaged in the week of October 13, 2023. Yesterday, the natural gas price was $2.11/mmbtu.

Gasoline demand fell 4.0% y/y in the four weeks ended May 3 after declining 3.6% y/y in the four weeks ended April 26. Demand for all petroleum products was little changed y/y for the second consecutive four-week period. Crude oil input to refineries rose 0.3% y/y in the four weeks ended May 3, the same as during the previous four week period.

Gasoline inventories rose 3.8% y/y in the week of May 3 after rising 1.9% y/y in the prior week. Inventories of residual fuel oil fell 14.8% y/y in the week of May 3 after declining 9.8% y/y in the previous week. Crude oil inventories, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, improved 0.3% y/y in the week of May 3, the same as in the prior week.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories eased w/w to 26.4 days in the week of May 3. The recent low was 23.4 days in the week of June 30, 2023. Crude oil inventories fell to 29.0 days of supply in the week of May 3 from 29.2 days in the prior week. These compare to a recent high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023 and a low of 25.0 days in the week of September 1, 2023.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** & **USENERGY** database.

- Gasoline prices fall for third straight week.
- Crude oil costs decline sharply.
- Natural gas prices strengthen.

U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Decline in Latest Week

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The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) fell 0.9% (+3.3% y/y) during the four weeks ended May 10, 2024, after rising during April. The index remained 20.1% below the cycle peak in the second week of March 2022. During most of that period of time, U.S. factory output has been little changed.

Prices in the miscellaneous group fell 3.5% during the last four weeks and weakened 0.5% y/y. Plywood prices fell 7.8% in four weeks, rising 2.3% y/y. The cost of natural rubber fell 10.3% in four weeks but rose by roughly one-quarter y/y.

Prices in the crude oil & benzene group were off 2.7% (+7.7% y/y) in the last four weeks. The cost of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 8.5% in four weeks to $78.64 per barrel, up 9.3% y/y. Prices hit a low of $70.42 in the third week of December. The cost of the petro-chemical benzene, used for making plastics & synthetic fibers, increased 3.0% (+23.3% y/y) in four weeks. Excluding crude oil, the industrial commodity price index eased 0.5% (+2.9% y/y) in the latest four-week period.

Textile group prices declined 1.7% (-1.0% y/y) in the latest four weeks but had been rising since their low in the second week of November. Cotton prices weakened 10.6% (-10.5% y/y) in the last four weeks, falling to the lowest level since December 2020. The cost of burlap posted a 0.7% (7.8% y/y) four-week increase.

Offsetting these declines, metals group prices increased 4.0% (9.7% y/y) over the most recent four weeks. Zinc prices rose 8.0% (10.1% y/y) while tin prices improved 5.2% in four weeks, strengthening 22.2% y/y. Copper scrap prices increased 5.1% (15.1% y/y) in the last four weeks and aluminum prices improved 3.9%, rising 9.7% y/y. Lead prices increased 2.6% (2.4% y/y) in four weeks but the cost of steel scrap eased 0.5% (+1.5% y/y).

The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's **DAILY**, **WEEKLY**, **USECON** and **CMDTY** databases.

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- Lumber costs continue to weaken.
- Crude oil prices fall and reverse earlier gains.
- Cotton prices exhibit notable decline.
- Most metals prices strengthen.