Global| Aug 11 2015U.S. Wholesale Inventory Accumulation Continues to Strengthen
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Inventories at the wholesale level increased 0.9% during June (5.4% y/y) following a 0.6% May gain, revised from 0.8%. The rise was paced by a 2.0% jump (15.0% y/y) in automotive products inventories and a 1.5% rise in furniture (7.8% [...]
Inventories at the wholesale level increased 0.9% during June (5.4% y/y)
following a 0.6% May gain, revised from 0.8%. The rise was paced by a 2.0% jump
(15.0% y/y) in automotive products inventories and a 1.5% rise in furniture
(7.8% y/y). Computer & peripherals declined 2.1% (+1.8% y/y) but electrical
goods inventories improved 0.1% (+6.5% y/y. Nondurable goods inventories
increased 2.3% (5.4% y/y). The gain reflected a 3.6% rise (-17.7% y/y) in
petroleum and a 2.0% increase in apparel (12.1% y/y). Chemical inventories rose
1.8% (0.5% y/y).
Sales in the wholesale sector improved 0.1% last month (-0.5% y/y) after a 0.2% rise. Furniture sales increased 3.6% (13.6% y/y) but motor vehicle sales dropped 2.8% (+5.3% y/y). Machinery equipment sales were off 2.2% (-0.3% y/y). Nondurable goods sales increased 1.2% (-2.7% y/y) as petroleum sales strengthened 3.7% (-27.8% y/y). Chemical sales rose 1.4% (1.5% y/y) but apparel sales ticked just 0.1% higher (4.8% y/y).
The inventory to sales ratio recovered to 1.30 and equaled the Q1 average. The motor vehicle ratio jumped to 1.73, the highest level of the economic expansion. The ratio for furniture & home furnishings pulled back to 1.62 and has moved sideways this year. The nondurable goods ratio held fairly steady at 0.96 reflecting 2.07 in apparel and 0.40 in petroleum.
The wholesale trade figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
| Wholesale Sector - NAICS Classification (%) | Jun | May | Apr | Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inventories | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 5.4 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 6.6 |
| Sales | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.7 | -0.5 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 5.9 |
| I/S Ratio | 1.30 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.19 (June '14) | 1.20 | 1.18 | 1.16 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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