Global| Mar 09 2012U.S. Trade Deficit Widens With Higher Oil Values
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The U.S. foreign trade deficit in January widened to $52.6B versus $50.4B in December, revised from $48.8B. Expectations had been for a January deficit of $49.0B, according to Action Economics. Exports rose 1.4% (7.7% y/y) but imports [...]
The U.S. foreign trade deficit in January widened to $52.6B versus $50.4B in December, revised from $48.8B. Expectations had been for a January deficit of $49.0B, according to Action Economics. Exports rose 1.4% (7.7% y/y) but imports jumped 2.1% (8.4% y/y). In chained 2005 dollars, the overall deficit in goods deepened to $49.1B; real exports rose 1.1% (4.7% y/y) while real imports increased 1.3% (1.9% y/y).
Overall exports rose 1.4% while goods exports rose 1.5% (7.6% y/y), 1.1% (4.7% y/y) in real terms. The nominal gain was led by a 9.0% increase in automotive vehicles & parts (18.1% y/y). Exports of capital goods also posted a strong 3.1% (11.0% y/y) rise. Offsetting these gains was a 1.5% decline (+2.8% y/y) in nonauto consumer goods exports, while industrial supplies & materials fell 0.7% (+6.3% y/y). Services exports rose 1.4% (8.0% y/y). Travel exports rose 2.1% (6.3% y/y) as more individuals visited the U.S., while passenger fares gained 3.0% (10.9% y/y).
Total imports rose 2.1% in January as goods imports jumped 2.2% (8.4% y/y), 1.3% (1.9% y/y) in real terms. The gain was led by a 10.4% (15.6% y/y) increase in auto imports and a 4.8% rise (14.2% y/y) in imports of foods, feeds & beverages. Imports of nonauto consumer goods rose 0.4% (3.4% y/y) and capital good imports ticked up 0.1% (6.7% y/y). Imports of services increased 1.1% (7.8% y/y); travel imports fell 1.5% (+2.9%) as fewer U.S. citizens traveled abroad while passenger fares rose 4.0% (10.0% y/y).
The value of January petroleum imports jumped another 3.3% (11.5% y/y). The average cost of crude oil per barrel slipped m/m to $103.81, up from $84.34 a year earlier. During January, the quantity of energy-related petroleum imports fell 8.1% y/y.
By country, the January goods trade deficit with mainland China deepened m/m to $26.0B and was larger than the $23.0B twelve months earlier. Imports from China increased 9.7% y/y to $34.4B as U.S. exports rose 3.6% y/y to $8.4B. With Japan, the deficit eased to $6.2B as exports rose 12.4% y/y but imports increased 18.3% y/y. The deficit with the European Union eased to $8.5B with a 4.2% y/y rise in exports to Europe and a 14.4% jump in imports.
The international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics consensus survey, which is carried in the AS1REPNA
Why Is the U.S. Share of World Merchandise Exports Shrinking? from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found here
| Foreign Trade | Jan | Dec | Nov | Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Trade Deficit | $52.6B | $50.4B | $47.5B | $47.5B (1/11) |
$560.0B | $500.0B | $381.3B |
| Exports (%) | 1.4 | 0.4 | -1.1 | 7.7 | 14.6 | 16.7 | -14.5 |
| Imports | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 8.4 | 14.0 | 19.5 | -23.0 |
| Petroleum | 3.3 | 0.1 | 8.8 | 11.5 | 30.8 | 32.5 | -44.0 |
| Nonpetroleum goods | 1.8 | 2.1 | -0.2 | 7.6 | 12.1 | 20.8 | -20.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
