U.S. Trade Deficit Widened in November

The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services (BOP basis) widened to $56.8 billion in November from $29.2 billion in October, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The goods deficit increased to $86.9 billion from $59.0 billion while the services surplus widened slightly to $30.1 billion from $29.8 billion. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a deficit of $43.2 billion. The real (inflation-adjusted) trade deficit in goods widened to $87.1 billion (2017$) in November from $63.6 billion in October. When the November reading is combined with the much lower-than-usual October reading, the narrowing of the real trade deficit in the first two months of Q4 puts it on course to add around 0.5%-point to overall real GDP growth.

Exports of goods and services fell 3.6% m/m (+5.9% y/y) in November, more than reversing a 3.0% m/m gain in October. This was the first monthly decline in six months. Goods exports (Census basis) plunged 5.7% m/m in November after monthly increases of 4.3% in October and 5.6% in September. The November weakness was widespread. “Other” exports slumped 13.5% m/m; exports of consumer goods ex autos fell 12.9% m/m; industrial supplies exports declined 7.9% m/m (with nonmonetary gold exports falling $4.2 billion); auto exports slumped 5.8% m/m; food exports decreased 4.0% m/m. A 1.2% monthly gain in capital goods exports was the only major end-use category to report an increase in November. Services exports edged up 0.2% m/m with travel rising 1.4% m/m.

Imports of goods and services rebounded 5.0% m/m (-1.9% y/y) in November, more than reversing their 3.0% monthly decline in October. Goods imports (Census basis) surged 6.5% m/m after tumbling 4.1% m/m in October. Imports of non-auto consumer goods jumped 17.6% m/m but failed to reverse the 20.4% plummet in October. Imports of “other goods” soared 16.1% m/m, its largest monthly gain since July 2020. Capital goods imports rose a solid 7.9% m/m on top of a 7.8% monthly gain in October. Food imports gained 3.8% m/m, their first monthly gain in four months. By contrast, imports of industrial supplies fell 5.0% m/m, their third monthly decline in the past four months. Auto imports edged down 0.6% m/m, their third consecutive monthly decline. Service imports slipped 0.1% m/m in November, their first monthly decline in three months. Travel imports fell 1.4% m/m; charges for imported intellectual property decline 1.3% m/m; imported maintenance and repair services fell 3.6% m/m, their first monthly decline since March 2025.

By country, the goods trade deficit with China widened to $14.7 billion in November from $13.7 billion in October. US exports to China slumped 19.4% m/m, the fourth monthly decline in the past five months. Imports from China declined 2.3% m/m, their third monthly decline in the past four months. The trade deficit with the European Union widened markedly to $14.5 billion in November from $6.3 billion in October. The deficit with Japan widened slightly to $4.7 billion from $4.2 billion.

The international trade data can be found in Haver’s USECON database. Detailed figures on international trade are available in the USINT and USTRADE databases. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in AS1REPNA.