Global| Mar 12 2010U.S. Retail Sales Firm; "Core" Sales Rise To Highest Since 2008
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The gain in February sales, while small, was impressive. Retail sales rose 0.3% after a 0.1% January uptick that was revised down from the 0.5% increase reported last month. A 0.2% decline had been expected for February sales. On a [...]
The gain in February sales, while small, was impressive. Retail sales rose 0.3% after a 0.1% January uptick that was revised down from the 0.5% increase reported last month. A 0.2% decline had been expected for February sales. On a three-month basis, sales rose at a 1.2% rate. Beyond the total, however, the numbers look better. Nonauto sales rose 0.8% after a 0.5% January increase that was little-revised. On a three-month basis nonauto sales rose at a respectable 4.8% annual rate, though that was less than half the peak rate of growth last November. These numbers were, of course, influenced by recently weak gains in gasoline prices. Nonauto retail sales less gasoline, a better measure of "core" spending, continued to improve last month at a 4.6% annual rate which was just off its November high of 7.2%. The growth returned the level of sales to its highest since August 2008.
"Core" discretionary spending improved as furniture, home furnishings & electronics sales rose 2.2% and at a 9.8% annual rate over the last three months. That's improved from the 9.6% decline during all of last year and raised sales to the highest level in twelve months. Though furniture sales alone rose just 0.7% (-2.1% y/y), sales of electronics & appliances surged 3.7% (-1.6% y/y) after a 2.2% January increase. General merchandise store sales followed with a 1.0% gain (3.2% y/y) after a 1.3% January jump. Finally, apparel store sales gained 0.6% (-0.7% y/y) on the heels of a 1.5% January increase.
Motor vehicle sales have been the drag on recent spending. A 2.0% (+2.1% y/y) February slip was the third consecutive monthly decline which mirrored lackluster unit sales. Finally, growth in sales at gasoline service stations also has eased after last spring's surge with higher prices. February sales rose just 0.3% (24.0% y/y) and at a 6.3% rate during the last three months.
Earlier strength in internet & catalogue sales eased last month. Sales were unchanged but were still 11.8% higher than last year. The three-month rate of gain also eased off to 17.6%.
| February | January | December | Y/Y | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services (%) | 0.3 | 0.1 | -0.2 | 3.9 | -6.0 | -0.8 | 3.3 |
| Excluding Autos | 0.8 | 0.5 | -0.1 | 4.2 | -4.8 | 2.4 | 3.9 |
| Non-Auto Less Gasoline | 0.9 | 0.5 | -0.2 | 2.0 | -1.9 | 1.6 | 3.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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