Global| Mar 30 2020U.S. Pending Home Sales Improve Ahead of Coronavirus
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales increased 2.4% in February (9.4% y/y) to the highest level since February 2017. Lower mortgage rates helped fuel the increase with the 15-year fixed-rate [...]
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales increased 2.4% in February (9.4% y/y) to the highest level since February 2017. Lower mortgage rates helped fuel the increase with the 15-year fixed-rate declining to 3.00%, the lowest level since late-2016.
The number of signed contracts in February increased in every region of the country. Pending home sales increased 4.6% (10.8% y/y) in the West and 4.5% (14.9% y/y) in the Midwest. Sales in the Northeast sales rose 2.8% (5.9% y/y) while in the South they edged 0.1% (7.1% y/y) higher.
The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for an existing home is signed, analogous to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity anticipates the level of closed existing home sales in the following two months. The series dates back to 2001, and the data are available in Haver's PREALTOR database. Mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the SURVEYW database.
| Pending Home Sales (SA, % chg) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y % | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 2.4 | 5.3 | -4.3 | 9.4 | 1.1 | -4.1 | -0.8 |
| Northeast | 2.8 | 2.2 | -2.7 | 5.9 | 0.8 | -5.0 | 0.6 |
| Midwest | 4.5 | 7.4 | -3.4 | 14.9 | -0.3 | -4.6 | -2.5 |
| South | 0.1 | 8.7 | -3.8 | 7.1 | 1.8 | -1.9 | 0.6 |
| West | 4.6 | -0.9 | -7.1 | 10.8 | 1.3 | -7.3 | -2.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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