Global| Sep 02 2016U.S. Payroll Increase Weakens Significantly
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Earlier strength in the job market subsided last month. Nonfarm payroll employment increased 151,000 (1.7% y/y) during August. That followed an upwardly revised 275,000 July rise, but June's gain was lessened to 271,000. A 180,000 [...]
Earlier strength in the job market subsided last month. Nonfarm payroll employment increased 151,000 (1.7% y/y) during August. That followed an upwardly revised 275,000 July rise, but June's gain was lessened to 271,000. A 180,000 increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. So far this year, payroll employment increases averaged 182,000 per month versus 229,000 averaged last year and 251,000 in 2014. Job market strength waned broadly across sectors last month. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.9%, where it's been for three months. Expectations were for a dip to 4.8%. The total unemployment rate, including those marginally attached or working part time for economic reasons, held steady at 9.7%. Average hourly earnings ticked 0.1% higher (2.4% y/y), a 0.2% rise was expected.
The labor market data are contained in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are in the EMPL and LABOR databases. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Employment: (SA, M/M Change, 000s) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Employment | 151 | 275 | 271 | 1.7 | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.6% |
| Previous | -- | 255 | 292 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Manufacturing | -14 | 6 | 8 | -0.3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Construction | -6 | 11 | -6 | 3.1 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 3.7 |
| Private Service-Producing | 150 | 214 | 243 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Government | 25 | 50 | 33 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.3 |
| Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector | 34.3 | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.6 | 34.5 | 34.5 | 34.5 |
| Private Sector Average Hourly Earnings (%) | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 7.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
