Global| Sep 04 2015U.S. Payroll Employment Increase Weakens; Jobless Rate Falls to 2008 Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Last month's increase in payroll employment disappointed expectations and rose 173,000 (2.1% y/y), the weakest increase since March. A gain of 215,000 had been expected in the Action Economic Forecast Survey. The July increase was, [...]
Last month's increase in payroll employment disappointed expectations and rose 173,000 (2.1% y/y), the weakest increase since March. A gain of 215,000 had been expected in the Action Economic Forecast Survey. The July increase was, however, revised upward to 245,000 from 215,000 and the June gain was revised higher as well, also to 245,000. Private sector employment rose 140,000 after a 224,000 increase. Government hiring strengthened 33,000, its best in two years. Average hourly earnings posted a 0.3% rise (2.2% y/y), above expectations for a 0.2% increase. The unemployment rate fell to 5.1%, its lowest since April 2008. A 5.2% rate had been expected. The overall unemployment rate, including marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons, fell to 10.3%.
The labor market data is contained Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are in the EMPL and LABOR databases. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
The Cyclicality of the Opportunity Cost of Employment from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis can be found here.
| Employment: (SA M/M Change, 000s) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Employment | 173 | 245 | 245 | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% |
| Previous | -- | 215 | 231 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Manufacturing | -17 | 12 | 1 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| Construction | 3 | 7 | 1 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 2.1 |
| Private Service Producing | 164 | 211 | 221 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Government | 33 | 21 | 27 | 0.6 | 0.0 | -0.3 | -0.8 |
| Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector | 34.6 | 34.5 | 34.5 | 34.5 (Aug.'14) |
34.5 | 34.5 | 34.4 |
| Private Sector Average Hourly Earnings (%) | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 6.1 (Aug.'14) |
6.1 | 7.4 | 8.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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