Global| Sep 26 2011U.S. New Home Sales Slip But Prices Plummet
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The sales market for new homes remained weak last month, and that greatly depressed home pricing power. Total new home sales decreased 2.3% to 295,000 after a downwardly revised 0.3% July slip. The latest was the fourth consecutive [...]
The sales market for new homes remained weak
last month, and that greatly depressed home pricing power. Total
new home sales decreased 2.3% to 295,000 after a downwardly
revised 0.3% July slip. The latest was the fourth consecutive
monthly decline and it matched the Consensus expectation. But that's
not all that was down last month. The median price of a new
single family home dropped 8.7% m/m to $209,100 (-7.7% y/y). The
average dropped by the same amount m/m to $246,000 (-8.5% y/y).
Measured either way, prices were near their lowest since the middle
of 2003.
As has been the case recently, sales performance varied by region of the country. The Northeast saw a 13.6% m/m decline and sales fell by slightly more than one-third y/y. Sales in the West saw a more modest 6.3% m/m drop followed by the South which had a 2.4% m/m decline. Sales in the Midwest rose 8.2% and by two-thirds y/y. Home sales remained down by three-quarters from the record 1,279,000 during all of 2005.
The inventory of unsold homes fell to a new low for the series (-21.4% y/y) and it remained near the cycle-low at 6.6 months of sales. This story of a low inventory of unsold homes doesn't vary across the country.
The data in this report are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the AS1REPNA database
| U.S. New Home Sales | Aug | Jul | Jun | Y/Y % | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total (SAAR, 000s) | 295 | 302 | 303 | 6.1 | 321 | 374 | 482 |
| Northeast | 19 | 22 | 14 | -36.7 | 31 | 31 | 35 |
| Midwest | 53 | 49 | 43 | 65.6 | 45 | 54 | 69 |
| South | 164 | 168 | 174 | 9.3 | 173 | 202 | 265 |
| West | 59 | 63 | 72 | -10.6 | 74 | 87 | 113 |
| Median Price (NSA, $) | 209,100 | 228,900 | 238,400 | -7.7 | 221,242 | 214,500 | 230,408 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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