Global| Dec 11 2012U.S. JOLTS: Job Openings Rate Improves While Layoffs Decline
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Labor market improvement continues according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). The October job openings rate rose to 2.7% from an unrevised 2.6%. That equaled the highest rate for the [...]
Labor market improvement continues according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). The October job openings rate rose to 2.7% from an unrevised 2.6%. That equaled the highest rate for the expansion and was improved versus the recession low of 1.6%. The job openings rate is the number of job openings on the last business day of the month as a percent of total employment plus job openings. The actual number of job openings rose 3.6% to 3,675 (7.8% y/y), nearly the highest level for the economic expansion..
The private-sector job openings rate rose to 2.9%, up versus the recession low of 1.7%. The job openings rate in professional & business services increased to 3.7% but remained below its December high of 4.3%. In leisure & hospitality, the rate recovered to 3.0% while the rate in education & health services fell to 3.1%. In manufacturing the rate improved from its recent low to 2.3%. The job openings rate in government was stable at a relatively low 1.7%.
Recovering a bit was the hires rate to 3.2%. However, it still was nearly the lowest level since July of last year but up from the recession low of 2.8%. The hires rate is the number of hires during the month divided by employment. The hires rate in the private sector rose slightly m/m to 3.6% while the government's rate held at a low 1.3%. In leisure & hospitality, the hiring rate continued quite firm at 5.5% and the factory sector hires rate improved slightly to 2.1%. In education & health services, the rate held at 2.4%. Overall hires in the private sector gained 3.4% (1.9% y/y) but have moved sideways this year. Professional & business services hires recovered 4.7% (-0.6% y/y) while leisure & hospitality hires increased 6.5% (4.9% y/y).
The job separations rate of 3.1% remained nearly the lowest in fourteen months. The actual number of separations was roughly unchanged y/y. Separations include quits, layoffs, discharges, and other separations as well as retirements. The layoff & discharge rate fell m/m and equaled its five year low of 1.2%. The private sector layoff rate was 1.4% while in government it was a lower 0.5%.
The JOLTS survey dates only to December 2000 and the figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
| JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct'11 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Job Openings, Total | |||||||
| Rate (%) | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| Total (000s) | 3,675 | 3,547 | 3,661 | 3,408 | 3,540 | 2,902 | 2,432 |
| Hires, Total | |||||||
| Rate (%) | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 38.0 | 37.4 | 35.5 |
| Total(000s) | 4,339 | 4,204 | 4,220 | 4,276 | 50,006 | 48,647 | 46,386 |
| Layoffs & Discharges, Total | |||||||
| Rate (%) | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 15.6 | 16.7 | 20.5 |
| Total (000s) | 1,660 | 1,728 | 1,848 | 1,740 | 20,678 | 21,737 | 26,731 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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