Global| Mar 13 2012U.S. JOLTS: Job Openings Ease
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Recent labor market improvement hesitated as indicated by the slip in the January job openings rate. The figure slipped to 2.5% from the recovery's high of 2.6%. The figures in the Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings & Labor [...]
Recent labor market improvement hesitated as indicated by the slip in the January job openings rate. The figure slipped to 2.5% from the recovery's high of 2.6%. The figures in the Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) were revised back three years. The latest reading remained improved versus the recession low of 1.6%. The job openings rate is the number of job openings on the last business day of the month as a percent of total employment plus job openings. The actual number of job openings in January fell 2.3% (+20.9% y/y) but still was near the highest level since June 2008.
The private-sector job openings rate slipped from its high to 2.7% but has moved steadily higher versus the recession low of 1.7%. The professional & business services job openings rate slipped from its high to 4.0%. It too remained near the recovery high. In manufacturing the rate rose to another recovery high of 2.3% and was more-than-double the mid-2009 low. Offsetting this strength was more-moderate improvement in education & health services. In leisure & hospitality businesses, the openings rate slipped m/m to 3.1% but was still near its recovery high. The job openings rate in government held for the third month at a low 1.6%.
In a sign that qualified job candidates are difficult to find, the hires rate slipped to 3.1%, its lowest in six months. The hires rate is the number of hires during the month divided by employment. The hires rate in the private sector held near a low 3.5% while the government's rate improved to the highest since the end of Census taking. The factory sector the hires rate fell to 2.1% and reversed most of this recovery's improvement. Overall hires in the private sector fell for the third month in the last four (+4.5% y/y) while in the public sector they jumped 8.0% (22.8% y/y). Leisure & hospitality business hires rose nearly one-quarter y/y while hires in education & health services rose 13.7% y/y. Hires in professional & business services weakened substantially and fell 5.8% y/y while in manufacturing they were off 5.0% y/y.
The job separations rate held steady at 3.0% but the actual number of separations rose 3.4% y/y. Separations include quits, layoffs, discharges, and other separations as well as retirements. The layoff & discharge rate alone remained at its all-time low of 1.2%. The private sector layoff rate fell to its recovery low of 1.2%; 1.4% in the private sector and 0.6% in government.
The JOLTS survey dates only to December 2000 and the figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
| JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan'10 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Job Openings, Total | |||||||
| Rate (%) | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| Total (000s) | 3,459 | 3,540 | 3,274 | 2,860 | 3,540 | 2,902 | 2,432 |
| Hires, Total | |||||||
| Rate (%) | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 38.0 | 37.4 | 35.5 |
| Total(000s) | 4,158 | 4,188 | 4,268 | 3,934 | 50,006 | 48,647 | 46,386 |
| Layoffs & Discharges, Total | |||||||
| Rate (%) | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 15.6 | 16.7 | 20.5 |
| Total (000s) | 1,646 | 1,685 | 1,770 | 1,659 | 20,678 | 21,737 | 26,731 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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