Global| Dec 13 2004U.S. Inventories Rose Slightly
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total business inventories rose 0.2% in October following a downwardly revised, slight decline in September. Wholesale inventories jumped 1.1%. During the last ten years there has been a 63% correlation between the y/y change in [...]
Total business inventories rose 0.2% in October following a downwardly revised, slight decline in September.
Wholesale inventories jumped 1.1%. During the last ten years there has been a 63% correlation between the y/y change in wholesale inventories and the change in imports of merchandise.
Retail inventories fell another 0.6% as motor vehicle inventories fell sharply for the second consecutive month, down 2.3% (+7.9% y/y). Non-auto retail inventories advanced 0.3% but meaningful gains were limited to building materials (+15.7% y/y) and food (2.7% y/y). Elsewhere, inventories of furniture & home furnishings (+2.5% y/y) fell for the second consecutive month. Apparel inventories rose 0.1% (1.3% y/y) and general merchandise inventories fell 0.1% (+3.2% y/y).
Overall business sales surged 1.2% (+11.0% y/y) driven by the 1.2% spike in factory shipments (10.6% y/y).
The ratio of inventories-to-sales fell back to the historic low of 1.30.
| Business Inventories | Oct | Sept | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.2% | -0.0% | 7.1% | 1.9% | 1.5% | -4.5% |
| Retail | -0.6% | -0.5% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.0% | -2.8% |
| Retail excl. Autos | 0.3% | 0.1% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.6% | -1.1% |
| Wholesale | 1.1% | 0.6% | 10.6% | 2.2% | 0.4% | -4.5% |
| Manufacturing | 0.5% | 0.1% | 5.9% | -1.3% | -1.8% | -6.1% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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