Global| Jun 18 2015U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Near Recovery Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The labor market remains on solid ground. Initial unemployment insurance claims declined to 267,000 (-14.3% y/y) during the week of June 13 compared to an unrevised 279,000 during the prior week. The four week moving average fell to [...]
The labor market remains on solid ground. Initial unemployment insurance claims declined to 267,000 (-14.3% y/y) during the week of June 13 compared to an unrevised 279,000 during the prior week. The four week moving average fell to 276,750. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 276,000 claims in the latest week. During the last ten years, there has been a 76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance eased to 2.222 million (-14.0% y/y) in the latest week from 2.272 million. The four-week moving average of 2.231 million was near the lowest level since November 2000.
The insured rate of unemployment held at 1.7%, just above the cycle low.
By state, the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary greatly with South Dakota (0.37%), Florida (0.80%), Virginia (0.82%), Georgia (0.98%), Ohio (1.16%) and Louisiana (1.34%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were Maryland (1.59%), Massachusetts (1.94%), Nevada (2.19%), Pennsylvania (2.22%), California (2.37%) and New Jersey (2.47%). These data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Confident about Quitting: Job Leavers and Labor Market Optimism from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City can be found here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 06/13/15 | 06/06/15 | 05/30/15 | Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 267 | 279 | 277 | -14.3 | 309 | 343 | 374 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,222 | 2,272 | -14.0 | 2,599 | 2,978 | 3,319 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 (6/14) |
2.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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