Global| Apr 08 2010U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Increase
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Earlier improvement in the labor market paused last week, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Initial claims for jobless insurance rose 18,000 to 460,000, the highest level in five weeks. The increase followed a 3,000 decline [...]
Earlier improvement in the labor market paused last week, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Initial claims for jobless insurance rose 18,000 to 460,000, the highest level in five weeks. The increase followed a 3,000 decline during the prior week which was half that reported initially. Nevertheless, the latest level is down from the recession peak of 651,000 reached in March of 2009. Last week's level exceeded Consensus expectations for 435,000 new claims but the four-week moving average of initial claims rose just slightly to 450,250.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance during the latest week fell to a new cycle low and are down by one-third since the late-June peak. The overall decline is a function of the improved job market but also reflects the exhaustion of 26 weeks of unemployment benefits. Continuing claims provide an indication of workers' ability to find employment. The four-week average of continuing claims also fell to a cycle low of 4.648 mil. This series dates back to 1966.
Extended benefits for unemployment insurance rose by more-than-one half w/w to 214,393. Nevertheless, they were down by two-thirds from a peak of 597,688 reached in November.Each state administers a separate unemployment insurance program within guidelines established by Federal law. Benefit amounts and the length of time benefits are received are determined by state law. For example, in Michigan and New York, an additional 73 weeks of benefits are available while in California an additional 79 weeks are available.
The insured unemployment rate slipped to 3.5% after five weeks at 3.6%. The rate reached a high of 4.9% during May. During the last ten years, there has been a 96% correlation between the level of the insured unemployment rate and the overall rate of unemployment published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending March 19 were in Alaska (7.1% percent), Oregon (6.0), Wisconsin (5.7), Pennsylvania (5.4), Michigan (5.4), Nevada (5.3), North Carolina (5.0) and Connecticut (5.0). The lowest insured unemployment rates were in Virginia (2.0), Texas (2.3), Georgia (3.0), Florida (3.2), Wyoming (3.4), Maryland (3.4), Ohio (3.5), New York (3.9) and Maine (4.2). These data are not seasonally adjusted but the overall insured unemployment rate is.
The unemployment insurance claims data is available in Haver's WEEKLY database and the state data is in the REGIONW database.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 04/02/10 | 03/26/10 | 03/19/10 | Y/Y | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 460 | 442 | 445 | -28.5% | 572 | 419 | 321 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 4,550 | 4,681 | -22.1% | 5,809 | 3,340 | 2,549 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 3.5 | 3.6 | 4.6 (4/2009) | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
