Global| Feb 05 2015U.S. Initial Claims of Unemployment Insurance Remain Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 278,000 during the week ended January 31 from 267,000 in the prior week, revised from 265,000. Claims were at the lowest level since the end of October. The four-week moving [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 278,000 during the week ended January 31 from 267,000 in the prior week, revised from 265,000. Claims were at the lowest level since the end of October. The four-week moving average of initial claims declined to 292,750. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 285,000 claims in the latest week. During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance in the week ended January 24 notched up to 2.400 from 2.394 during the prior week, revised from 2.385 mil. The four-week moving average declined to 2.421 mil.
The insured rate of unemployment held at 1.8% for the fourth straight week.
By state, in the week ended January 17 the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary greatly with Virginia (1.09%), North Carolina (1.10%), Oklahoma (1.13%), Louisiana (1.16%), South Carolina (1.17%) and Texas (1.26%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were Vermont (2.49%), California (2.55%), Michigan (2.75%), Montana (3.28%), Pennsylvania (3.39%) and New Jersey (3.64%). These data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 01/31/15 | 01/24/15 | 01/17/15 | Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 278 | 267 | 309 | -15.2 | 309 | 343 | 374 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,400 | 2,394 | -17.7 | 2,599 | 2,978 | 3,319 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.2 (01/14) |
2.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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