Global| Apr 16 2015U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Trend Lower
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for jobless insurance in the week ended April 11 nudged up to 294,000 (-3.5% y/y) from 282,000 in the prior week, revised from 281,000. Despite the rise, the four-week moving average of claims of 282,750 was nearly the [...]
Initial claims for jobless insurance in the week ended April 11 nudged up to 294,000 (-3.5% y/y) from 282,000 in the prior week, revised from 281,000. Despite the rise, the four-week moving average of claims of 282,750 was nearly the lowest since June 2000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 280,000 claims in the latest week. During the last ten years, there has been a 76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
The insured rate of unemployment held at 1.7%, its lowest level since November 2000.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance in the week ended April 4 declined to 2.268 million (-16.8% y/y). The four-week moving average fell to 2.329 million, the lowest level since December 2000.
By state, in the week ended March 28, the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary greatly with Florida (0.81%), Tennessee (1.02%), Louisiana (1.14%), Texas (1.44%), Ohio (1.57%) and New Mexico (1.92%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were New York (2.29%), Nevada (2.33%), California (2.62%), Massachusetts (2.91%), New Jersey (3.17%) and Alaska (3.88%). These data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 04/11/15 | 04/04/15 | 03/28/15 | Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 294 | 282 | 267 | -3.5 | 309 | 343 | 374 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,268 | 2,308 | -16.8 | 2,599 | 2,978 | 3,319 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.1 (04/14) |
2.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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