Global| Jul 28 2016U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Rise
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial unemployment insurance claims increased to 266,000 (-1.1% y/y) during the week ended July 23 from 252,000 in the prior week, revised from 253,000. Claims remained near the lowest level since 1973. The four-week moving average [...]
Initial unemployment insurance claims increased to 266,000 (-1.1% y/y) during the week ended July 23 from 252,000 in the prior week, revised from 253,000. Claims remained near the lowest level since 1973. The four-week moving average eased to 256,500. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 260,000 claims in the latest week. During the last ten years, there has been a 75% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for jobless nudged higher to 2.139 million (-5.8% y/y) from 2.132 million. The four-week moving average declined to 2.135 million, also near a four-decade low.
The insured rate of unemployment ticked up to 1.6% from 1.5%.
Insured rates of unemployment continued to vary across states. Near the low end of the range were South Dakota (0.42%), Nebraska (0.58%), Florida (0.69%), North Carolina (0.69%), Indiana (0.77%) and Virginia (0.85%). At the high end of the scale were Texas (1.68%), Nevada (1.92%), Illinois (1.97%), Massachusetts (1.99%), Pennsylvania (2.49%) and New Jersey (2.78%). The state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 07/23/16 | 07/16/16 | 07/09/16 | Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 266 | 252 | 254 | -1.1% | 277 | 307 | 342 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,139 | 2,132 | -5.8 | 2,268 | 2,607 | 2,978 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.6 | 1.5 |
1.7 |
1.7 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
