Global| Apr 30 2015U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Plumb a New Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The labor market continues to improve as evidenced by the downward trend in initial unemployment insurance claims. In the week ended April 25, they hit the lowest level since April 2000. Initial claims declined to 262,000 (-22.3% y/y) [...]
The labor market continues to improve as evidenced by the downward trend in initial unemployment insurance claims. In the week ended April 25, they hit the lowest level since April 2000. Initial claims declined to 262,000 (-22.3% y/y) after 296,000 during the prior week, revised from 295,000. The four-week moving average of claims slipped to 283,750. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 289,000 claims in the latest week. During the last ten years, there has been a 76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
The insured rate of unemployment held at 1.7% in the week ended April 18 for the fifth straight week, its lowest level since November 2000.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance declined to 2.253 million (-17.9% y/y) in the latest week. The four-week moving average fell to 2.291 million, the lowest level since December 2000.
By state, in the week ended April 11 the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary greatly with South Dakota (0.53%), South Carolina (0.85%), Tennessee (0.96%), New Hampshire (1.07%), Alabama (1.23%) and Texas (1.48%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were Nevada (2.29%), New York (2.34%), Massachusetts (2.54%), California (2.60%), Pennsylvania (2.64%) and New Jersey (3.14%). These data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 04/25/15 | 04/18/15 | 04/11/15 | Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 262 | 296 | 295 | -22.3 | 309 | 343 | 374 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,253 | 2,327 | -17.9 | 2,599 | 2,978 | 3,319 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.1 (04/14) |
2.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
