Global| Jun 02 2016U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Ease
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 267,000, up 6.5% y/y, during the week ended May 28 versus an unrevised decline to 268,000 in the prior week. It was the third consecutive weekly shortfall, but it left the average so [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 267,000, up 6.5% y/y, during the week ended May 28 versus an unrevised decline to 268,000 in the prior week. It was the third consecutive weekly shortfall, but it left the average so far in May above April. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 270,000 claims. The four week moving average of claims eased to 277,000, still near the highest point since early February. During the last ten years, there has been a 74% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in payroll employment.
In the week ending May 21, continuing claims for unemployment insurance increased to 2.172 million (-2.1% y/y) from 2.160 million. The four-week moving average rose to 2.163 million, the highest level since early April.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 1.6%, the lowest level since 2000.
Insured rates of unemployment across states continued to vary. Near the low end of the range were South Dakota (0.32%), Florida (0.60%), North Carolina (0.64%), Tennessee (0.66%), South Carolina (0.76%) and Virginia (0.81%). At the high end of the scale were Rhode Island (1.78%), Massachusetts (1.92%), Illinois (1.93%), Connecticut (2.14%), Pennsylvania (2.31%) and New Jersey (2.39%). The state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 05/28/16 | 05/21/16 | 05/14/16 | Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 267 | 268 | 278 | 6.5% | 277 | 307 | 342 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,172 | 2,160 | -2.1 | 2,268 | 2,607 | 2,978 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.6% | 1.6 |
1.7 |
1.7 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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