Global| Jul 17 2008U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Up Moderately
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose a moderate 5.4% last week to 366,000 from a little revised level during the week prior. The increase fell short of Consensus expectations for a larger rise to 380,000 claims. The latest [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose a moderate 5.4% last week to 366,000 from a little revised level during the week prior. The increase fell short of Consensus expectations for a larger rise to 380,000 claims.
The latest figure is for the survey week for July nonfarm payrolls. Jobless claims were down 18,000 (4.7%) from the June survey period.
A claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated with growth in nonfarm payrolls. During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment. Over the longer period of time, the level of claims for jobless insurance has not trended higher with the size of the labor force due to a higher proportion of self-employed workers who are not eligible for benefits.
As a result of the latest weekly decline in initial claims, the four-week moving average fell to 376,500 (+20.5% y/y). During June claims averaged 391,000.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance during the latest week fell by 81,000 and reversed about all of the prior week's rise. The decline, nevertheless, left the four-week average of continuing claims still rising. It increased 16,500 to another cycle high of 3,142,750 which was roughly a quarter higher than a year ago and the highest level since early 2004.
Continuing claims provide some indication of workers' ability to find employment and they lag the initial claims figures by one week.
The insured rate of unemployment fell back to 2.3%.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 07/12/08 | 07/05/08 | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 366 | 346 | 18.4% | 322 | 313 | 331 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 3,122 | 21.9% | 2,552 | 2,459 | 2,662 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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