Global| May 28 2015U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Move Up
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The job market remains on a firm footing. Initial unemployment insurance claims increased to 282,000 during the week ended May 23 from 275,000 in the prior week, initially reported as 274,000. Despite the increase, the four week [...]
The job market remains on a firm footing. Initial unemployment insurance claims increased to 282,000 during the week ended May 23 from 275,000 in the prior week, initially reported as 274,000. Despite the increase, the four week moving average nudged up only to 271,500 and remained near the lowest level since April 2000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 271,000 claims in the latest week. During the last ten years, there has been a 76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
The insured rate of unemployment ticked up to 1.7% but remained at its lowest point since November 2000.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance improved to 2.222 million (-15.5% y/y) in the latest week. The four-week moving average fell to 2.221 million, the lowest level since December 2000.
By state, in the week ended May 9 the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary greatly with South Dakota (0.33%), Nebraska (0.64%), New Hampshire (0.78%), Indiana (0.81%), Georgia (0.93%) and Kansas (1.17%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were New Mexico (1.75%), Massachusetts (1.99%), Nevada (2.17%), Pennsylvania (2.19%), California (2.40%) and New Jersey (2.49%). These data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 05/23/15 | 05/16/15 | 05/09/15 | Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 282 | 275 | 264 | -8.7 | 309 | 343 | 374 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,222 | 2,211 | -15.5 | 2,599 | 2,978 | 3,319 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.7 | 1.6 | 2.0 (05/14) |
2.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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