Global| Aug 17 2017U.S. Industrial Production Increases Modestly; Factory Output Slips
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Industrial production improved 0.2% during July (2.2% y/y) following an unrevised 0.4% June gain. A 0.3% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. A 1.6% rise (-0.7% y/y) in utilities output accounted for [...]
Industrial production improved 0.2% during July (2.2% y/y) following an unrevised 0.4% June gain. A 0.3% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. A 1.6% rise (-0.7% y/y) in utilities output accounted for most of the total increase. Factory output slipped 0.1% (+1.3% y/y), down for the third month in the last five. Mining production rose 0.5% (10.2% y/y) after a 2.0% jump.
The decline in factory sector production occurred as business equipment production fell 0.5% (+0.8% y/y). Transit equipment output declined 2.9% (-3.0% y/y) but production of information processing equipment rose 0.6% (4.5% y/y). Consumer products production improved 0.2% (0.3% y/y). Nondurable goods output increased 0.8% both m/m and y/y. A 1.4% jump (0.3% y/y) in chemical products output accompanied a 1.0% rise (-7.0% y/y) in clothing production. Paper products production fell, however, by 0.2% (+1.4% y/y). Production of durable consumer products declined 1.9% (-1.5% y/y) as motor vehicle production dropped 3.2% (-4.0% y/y). Appliance and furniture output also fell 2.1% (-0.5% y/y), but computer video & audio product production rose 2.4% (1.8% y/y). Construction supplies production fell 0.4% (+2.3% y/y).
Materials production rose 0.3% (3.5% y/y) reflecting a 0.2% gain (3.6% y/y) in nondurable consumer goods materials output. Durable materials production declined 0.3% (+1.1% y/y). Production of energy materials jumped 0.9% (5.6% y/y), up from declines during the last two years.
In the aggregate groupings, selected high-technology product production declined 0.1%, pulled lower by a 2.0% drop (+14.7% y/y) in computer & peripherals production. Communication equipment production rose 0.7% (-0.7% y/y). Factory production excluding both motor vehicles and high-tech products rose 0.3% (1.6% y/y).
Capacity utilization held steady m/m at 76.7%, but that was up from 75.9% last July. Factory sector utilization eased m/m to 75.4%, up slightly y/y from 75.1%. Factory sector capacity rose 0.7%, while excluding the high-tech sector it gained 0.5% y/y.
Industrial production and capacity data are included in Haver's USECON database, with additional detail in the IP database. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
The minutes to the latest FOMC meeting can be found here.
| 0Industrial Production (SA, % Change) | Jul | Jun | May | Jul Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Output | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 2.2 | -1.2 | -0.7 | 3.1 |
| Manufacturing | -0.1 | 0.2 | -0.6 | 1.3 | -0.0 | 0.1 | 1.2 |
| Consumer Goods | 0.2 | -0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| Business Equipment | -0.5 | 0.5 | -1.9 | 0.8 | -1.8 | -0.9 | 1.9 |
| Construction Supplies | -0.4 | 0.0 | -0.8 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 3.4 |
| Materials | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 3.5 | -2.3 | -1.4 | 5.1 |
| Utilities | 1.6 | -1.2 | 2.8 | -0.7 | -0.3 | -0.7 | 1.4 |
| Mining | 0.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 10.2 | -9.1 | -4.3 | 10.7 |
| Capacity Utilization (%) | 76.7 | 76.7 | 76.5 | 75.9 | 75.7 | 76.8 | 78.6 |
| Manufacturing | 75.4 | 75.5 | 75.4 | 75.1 | 75.1 | 75.5 | 75.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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