Global| Nov 17 2011U.S. Housing Starts Firm
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
In a somewhat confusing housing starts report, the latest indication is that activity continues to improve. The level of starts overall slipped to 628,000 (AR) during October from 630,000 in September, revised down from 658,000 [...]
In a somewhat confusing housing starts report, the latest indication is that activity continues to improve. The level of starts overall slipped to 628,000 (AR) during October from 630,000 in September, revised down from 658,000 reported last month. Offsetting this negative tone, the overall trend in starts continued to gradually improve from the lows of Q4'10 and the latest beat expectations for 610,000 units.
Starts of single-family homes rose to 430,000 units from a downwardly revised 414,000 in September. The increase pulled the level 20% above the recession low but starts still were down from the incentive-fueled levels of early last year. Starts in the multi-family sector fell moderately to 198,000 following their September jump, which also was downwardly revised. By region, housing starts in the Northeast, Midwest & South improved last month, offset by deterioration in the West.
Building permits jumped 10.9% last month (17.7% y/y) to the highest level since March 2010. Single-family starts rose 5.1% and were up 6.6% y/y while multi-family permits jumped nearly one-quarter m/m and were roughly one-half higher y/y.
The housing starts figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
| Housing Starts (000s, SAAR) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Y/Y % | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 628 | 630 | 585 | 16.5 | 585 | 554 | 900 |
| Single-Family | 430 | 414 | 425 | -0.9 | 471 | 442 | 616 |
| Multi-Family | 198 | 216 | 160 | 88.6 | 114 | 112 | 284 |
| Starts By Region | |||||||
| Northeast | 68 | 58 | 57 | -17.1 | 72 | 61 | 120 |
| Midwest | 102 | 93 | 86 | 7.4 | 98 | 95 | 134 |
| South | 326 | 321 | 301 | 23.0 | 296 | 281 | 451 |
| West | 132 | 158 | 141 | 36.1 | 120 | 117 | 195 |
| Building Permits | 653 | 589 | 625 | 17.7 | 603 | 582 | 896 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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