Global| May 02 2019U.S. Factory Orders Rise as Durables Strengthen
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Manufacturers' orders surged 1.9% (2.0% y/y) during March following a 0.3% February decline, revised from -0.5%. A 1.3% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Orders for durable goods rose 2.6% (2.1% y/y), [...]
Manufacturers' orders surged 1.9% (2.0% y/y) during March following a 0.3% February decline, revised from -0.5%. A 1.3% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Orders for durable goods rose 2.6% (2.1% y/y), revised from the advance report of a 2.7% gain issued last week. Transportation equipment orders jumped 7.0% (1.2% y/y) paced by a one-third surge in civilian aircraft & parts orders which more than recaptured February's decline. Factory orders excluding the transportation sector improved 0.8% (2.1% y/y), the largest increase since May 2018. Electrical equipment & parts orders rose 0.5% (2.6% y/y) after two months of stronger gains, but machinery bookings improved just 0.1% (3.6% y/y) after a 0.9% decline.
Orders for nondurable goods, which equal shipments, increased 0.7% in March (3.5% y/y) following a 0.5% rise. Shipments outside of the transportation sector rose 0.7%, with y/y growth of 2.7%, down from 8.8% y/y in June 2018. A 6.3% increase (4.3% y/y) in petroleum shipments powered the rise as prices strengthened. Food product shipments eased 0.3% (-0.9% y/y) and apparel demand inched 0.1% higher (1.3% y/y). Shipments of textile products fell 0.7% (+4.1% y/y) and basic chemical shipments rose 0.4% (3.8% y/y). Shipments of durable goods improved 0.5% (5.1% y/y). Computer & electronic product shipments eased 0.4% (+6.9% y/y) but electrical equipment shipments rose 0.4% (3.5% y/y). Transportation equipment shipments rose 1.1% (7.2% y/y) following two months of decline.
Order backlogs in the manufacturing sector rose 0.2% (2.9% y/y) and recovered February's drop. Transportation equipment backlogs rebounded 0.4% (2.5% y/y) after a 0.3% fall. Unfilled orders outside of transportation eased 0.1% (+3.8% y/y) following a 0.2% decline. The backlog of orders for electrical equipment & appliances was little changed (0.7% y/y) while computer & electronic component backlogs rose 0.5% (4.1% y/y). Unfilled orders for primary metals strengthened 0.2% (9.2% y/y) for a second month. Unfilled orders for fabricated metals fell 0.6% (+5.5% y/y). Machinery order backlogs eased 0.2% (+1.4% y/y).
Factory inventories increased 0.4% (3.9% y/y) after rising 0.3% during February. Transportation sector inventories nudged 0.1% higher (4.8% y/y) and inventories outside of transportation rose 0.5% (3.7% y/y). Electrical equipment inventories rose 0.5% (9.5% y/y) following four straight months of even stronger increase. Computer & electronic product inventories improved 0.4% (0.5% y/y) after three months of little change. Machinery inventories strengthened 1.0% (5.8% y/y). Primary metals inventories declined 0.6% (+6.9% y/y) while electrical equipment inventories rose 0.5% (9.5% y/y).
The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Factory Sector (% chg) - NAICS Classification | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | 1.9 | -0.3 | -0.0 | 2.0 | 7.2 | 5.7 | -2.9 |
| Shipments | 0.7 | 0.5 | -0.3 | 3.5 | 6.8 | 5.0 | -3.2 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.2 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.0 | -1.2 |
| Inventories | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 4.5 | -0.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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