Global| Nov 21 2011U.S. Existing Home Sales Tick Higher As Affordability Jumps
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The National Association of Realtors reported that October sales of existing homes rose 1.4% last month to 4.970M (AR, +13.5% y/y) following a 3.2% September decline, last month reported as -3.0%. The y/y comparison remained sharply [...]
The National Association of Realtors reported that October sales of existing homes rose 1.4% last month to 4.970M (AR, +13.5% y/y) following a 3.2% September decline, last month reported as -3.0%. The y/y comparison remained sharply positive because of last year's decline after the ending of the first-time home buyers tax credit. The latest reading beat Consensus expectations for 4.80M, according to Action Economics. Sales of existing single-family homes alone rose 1.6% m/m to 4.380M, up 13.8% y/y. (These data have a longer history than the total sales series). Sales of condos and co-ops rose 1.8% m/m to .560M (8.3% y/y).
The months' supply of homes on the market fell sharply to 8.0, the lowest since January. The months' supply of single-family homes on the market fell to 7.8 but for condos & coops it was a greatly-lessened 9.5 months. The total number of homes on the market fell 13.8% y/y. Inventories of single-family homes fell 12.2% but multi-family home inventories were off nearly twice that.
The median price of all existing homes fell another 2.0% m/m to $162,500 (-4.7% y/y), the lowest level in six months. In the Northeast, the median sales price of $224,400, down -5.5% y/y, compared to a price in the West of $207,500, off 1.6% y/y. In the South, the price of $145,700 was down 1.6% y/y and in the Midwest the price of $132,800 fell 4.7% y/y. As a result of price weakness, the composite index of home price affordability rose 6.6% y/y. Mortgage payments as a percent of income were 13.1% versus the high near 25% in 2006.
The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability can be found in Haver's USECON database. The regional price, affordability and inventory data are available in the REALTOR database. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Existing Home Sales (Thous, SAAR) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Y/Y% | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 4,970 | 4,900 | 5,060 | 13.5 | 4,918 | 5,149 | 4,894 |
| Northeast | 750 | 790 | 770 | 1.4 | 825 | 863 | 848 |
| Midwest | 1,100 | 1,070 | 1,100 | 19.6 | 1,076 | 1,168 | 1,128 |
| South | 1,940 | 1,900 | 1,940 | 14.1 | 1,861 | 1,907 | 1,857 |
| West | 1,190 | 1,140 | 1,250 | 15.5 | 1,155 | 1,214 | 1,062 |
| Single-Family Sales | 4,380 | 4,310 | 4,490 | 13.8 | 4,311 | 4,559 | 4,337 |
| Median Price, Total, ($, NSA) | 162,500 | 165,800 | 171,200 | -4.7 | 172,442 | 172,742 | 197,233 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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