Global| Jan 22 2013U.S. Existing Home Sales Decline While Prices Increase
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes fell 1.0% (+12.8% y/y) during December to a 4.940M annual rate. The gain followed a downwardly revised 4.8% November rise to 4.990M, initially reported as [...]
The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes fell 1.0% (+12.8% y/y) during December to a 4.940M annual rate. The gain followed a downwardly revised 4.8% November rise to 4.990M, initially reported as 5.040M. The latest fell short of Consensus expectations for 5.10M sales. For the year, sales rose 9.0% to 4.666M following a 2.4% rise in 2011. Sales of existing single-family homes alone declined 1.4% to 4.350M, up 11.5% y/y. (These data have a longer history than the total sales series.) Sales of condos and co-ops rose 3.6% m/m to 0.570M, up 21.3% y/y.
Despite fewer sales, home pricing improved. The median price of an existing home rose 0.8% (11.5% y/y) to $180,800. For the year, prices rose 6.7% to an average $175,492. That rise followed five consecutive years of decline. In the West, the median price rose 17.3% y/y to $239,900. In the Northeast, the median sales price of $231,600 was up 5.3% y/y. In the South, the price of $161,100 was up 11.0% y/y and in the Midwest the price rose 12.3% y/y to $144,800.
The supply of homes on the market fell to a seven year low of 4.4 months. The months' supply of single-family homes on the market also fell to 4.4 months and for condos & coops it held at 4.6 months. The total number of homes on the market continued its steady decline and fell 8.5% m/m, down 21.6% y/y. Inventories of single-family homes fell 21.2% y/y while inventories of multi-family homes fell 23.0%.
Reported earlier this month, the composite index of home price affordability ticked up 0.8% y/y. Mortgage payments as a percent of income held roughly stable m/m at 12.6% versus the high of roughly 25.0% in 2006. The average monthly mortgage rate fell to 3.50%.
The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability can be found in Haver's USECON database. The regional price, affordability and inventory data are available in the REALTOR database. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Existing Home Sales (Thous, SAAR) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Y/Y% | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 4,940 | 4,990 | 4,760 | 12.8 | 4,666 | 4,283 | 4,181 |
| Northeast | 640 | 620 | 580 | 10.3 | 599 | 544 | 563 |
| Midwest | 1,120 | 1,190 | 1,110 | 15.5 | 1,067 | 920 | 908 |
| South | 1,950 | 2,010 | 1,890 | 14.7 | 1,834 | 1,685 | 1,626 |
| West | 1,230 | 1,170 | 1,180 | 8.8 | 1,166 | 1,133 | 1,083 |
| Single-Family Sales | 4,350 | 4,410 | 4,210 | 11.5 | 4,135 | 3,797 | 3,704 |
| Median Price, Total, ($, NSA) | 180,800 | 179,400 | 176,900 | 11.5 | 175,492 | 164,542 | 172,442 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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