Global| Jun 23 2009U.S. Existing Home Sales And Prices Rise
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes rose 3.6% from May to the highest level since last October. Recent sales have been helped by a tax credit for first-time home buyers. The latest increase to [...]
The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes rose 3.6% from May to the highest level since last October. Recent sales have been helped by a tax credit for first-time home buyers. The latest increase to 4.89M (AR) units beat Consensus expectations for sales of 4.85M homes. Total sales include sales of condos and co-ops. Sales of existing single-family homes alone increased 2.4% last month and they were up 6.7% from the January low. Despite the recent gains, however, sales remained near the lowest level since July 1997. (These data have a longer history than the total sales series).
The recently enacted tax credit is for first-time home buyers of either a new or a pre-owned home. The credit of up to $8,000 extends through the rest of this year. The full details of the home-buyer tax credit can be found hereHome affordability fell somewhat from its record high to the lowest level this year. The decline was the result of the second consecutive, 4%+ m/m increase in home prices to a median $181,800. Nevertheless, affordability remained up by one-third from the year ago level as home prices remained down 20% from the 2007 peak. The series dates back to 1971.
The number of unsold homes (condos & single-family) on the market fell again, posting a 0.7% decline during June. Year-to-year inventories are down 14.9%. At the current sales rate there was a 9.4 months' supply on the market which was near the lowest since late-2007. For single-family homes the inventory was unchanged m/m (-17.9% y/y). At the current sales rate there was an 8.9 month's supply of homes on the market, near the lowest since 2007.
The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability can be found in Haver's USECON database. The regional price, affordability and inventory data is available in the REALTOR database.
What Do We Know (And Not Know) About Potential Output from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.
| Existing Home Sales (Thous) | June | May | Y/Y | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 4,890 | 4,720 | -0.2% | 4,893 | 5,674 | 6,516 |
| Northeast | 820 | 800 | -4.7 | 845 | 1,010 | 1,093 |
| Midwest | 1,100 | 1,090 | -1.8 | 1,130 | 1,331 | 1,494 |
| South | 1,810 | 1,740 | -3.7 | 1,860 | 2,243 | 2,577 |
| West | 1,160 | 1,090 | 11.5 | 1,064 | 1,095 | 1,357 |
| Single-Family | 4,320 | 4,220 | 0.2 | 4,341 | 4,960 | 5,712 |
| Median Price, Total, $ | 181,800 | 174,700 | -15.4 | 197,250 | 216,633 | 222,042 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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