Global| Mar 08 2019U.S. Employment Brakes Suddenly as Wages Accelerate; Jobless Rate Declines
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The job market during February was filled with contrary indications. Nonfarm payrolls increased 20,000 last month (1.7% y/y) following a 311,000 gain, revised from 304,000. December's increase was revised up slightly to 227,000 from [...]
The job market during February was filled with contrary indications. Nonfarm payrolls increased 20,000 last month (1.7% y/y) following a 311,000 gain, revised from 304,000. December's increase was revised up slightly to 227,000 from 222,000. February's increase fell short of expectations for a 188,000 improvement in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Average hourly earnings strengthened 0.4% and exceeded expectations for a 0.3% rise. The y/y increase strengthened to 3.4%, the strongest gain since April 2009.
The February unemployment rate declined to 3.8%, the lowest level in four months. A 3.9% rate had been expected. The overall jobless rate, including those who were marginally attached or working part-time for economic reasons, fell to 7.3%, a new low for the economic expansion.
The labor market data are contained in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are in the EMPL and LABOR databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Employment: (SA, M/M Change, 000s) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Employment | 20 | 311 | 227 | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% |
| Previous Estimate | -- | 304 | 222 | -- | -- | -- | |
| Manufacturing | 4 | 21 | 20 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| Construction | -31 | 53 | 16 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 4.1 |
| Private Service-Producing | 57 | 227 | 184 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Government | -5 | 3 | 3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector | 34.4 | 34.5 | 34.5 | 34.5 | 34.5 | 34.4 | 34.4 |
| Private Sector Average Hourly Earnings (%) | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 3.8 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 4.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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