Global| Sep 30 2011U.S. Consumer Sentiment Recovers A Bit Further
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment for all of September rose to 59.4. That's versus its mid-September reading of 57.8 and versus August of 55.7. Regardless, that gain still left the Q3 average down sharply at [...]
The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment for all of September rose to 59.4. That's versus its mid-September reading of 57.8 and versus August of 55.7. Regardless, that gain still left the Q3 average down sharply at 59.6 versus the Q2 average of 71.9. Consumers' reading of current economic conditions as well as expectations improved slightly this month. During the last ten years there has been a 62% correlation between the level of sentiment and the three-month change in real personal consumption.
The Reuters/University of Michigan survey data are not seasonally adjusted. The readings are based on telephone interviews with just- over 300 households. Data are in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
| University of Michigan (Q1'66 = 100) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y |
2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment | 59.4 | 55.7 | 63.7 | -12.9% | 71.8 | 66.3 | 63.8 |
| Current Economic Conditions | 74.9 | 68.7 | 75.8 | -5.9 | 80.9 | 69.6 | 73.7 |
| Consumer Expectations | 49.4 | 47.4 | 56.0 | -18.9 | 66.0 | 64.1 | 57.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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