Global| Jan 16 2013U.S. Consumer Prices Are Roughly Unchanged M/M And Slow Y/Y
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The December consumer price index matched expectations and was roughly unchanged following a 0.3% November decline. During the last twelve months prices rose 1.7%, roughly half the 2011 twelve month increase. Prices in December [...]
The December consumer price index matched expectations and was roughly unchanged following a 0.3% November decline. During the last twelve months prices rose 1.7%, roughly half the 2011 twelve month increase. Prices in December excluding food and energy again ticked higher by 0.1%. That increase was half the expected rise. It pulled the y/y advance down to 1.9% compared to a 2.2% rise in 2011.
Energy prices again were weak last month and fell 1.2% (+0.5% y/y). The drop owed to a 2.3% fall (+1.7% y/y) in gasoline prices though fuel oil prices were unchanged (+3.6% y/y). Natural gas costs jumped 1.3% (-2.9% y/y) while electricity prices ticked up 0.2% (-0.5% y/y). Food prices rose 0.2% (1.8% y/y) for the third straight month. That reflected a 0.6% rise (1.7% y/y) in fruit & vegetables but no change (1.4% y/y) in meats, poultry, fish and eggs.
Moderate growth in demand fostered a 0.2% decline (+0.3% y/y) in goods prices less food and energy. The y/y increase compares to a 2.2% rise at the end of 2002. Furniture & bedding prices fell 0.4% y/y but appliance prices costs rose 1.9% y/y. Apparel prices rose 1.8% y/y and that compared to a 5.1% y/y rate of increase early last year. New vehicle prices rose 1.6% y/y, half the rate of gain at the end of 20011. Recreational goods prices fell 2.0% last year after a 1.2% fall during 2011. Prices of educational books and supplies jumped 7.0% y/y adding to a 5.2% twelve month rise in 2011.
Core service prices increased another 0.2% and the y/y gain was roughly stable at 2.4%. Shelter costs (32% of the CPI) increased 0.1% (2.2% y/y) as did owners equivalent rent of primary residences (2.1% y/y). This y/y increase compares to a low of -0.3% in early 2010. Public transportation costs jumped 1.0% (2.4% y/y) following a 3.8% gain in 2011 and a 4.8% rise in 2010. Tuition costs rose a strong 3.6% y/y but the increase has been decelerating since the 13.3% jump in 1982. Recreation services prices increased 2.6% y/y, about the same as during 2011.
The consumer price data is available in Haver's USECON database while detailed figures can be found in CPIDATA. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and is found in the AS1REPNA database.
| Consumer Price Index(%) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | -0.0 | -0.3 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Goods less Food & Energy | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Services less Energy | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| Food | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 0.8 |
| Energy | -1.2 | -4.1 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 15.2 | 9.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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