Global| Feb 20 2014U.S. Consumer Price Inflation Remains Muted
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Consumer prices nudged 0.1% higher (1.6% y/y) during January following a 0.2% December rise. The increase matched consensus expectations in the Action Economics survey. Consumer prices excluding food and energy also gained 0.1% [...]
Consumer prices nudged 0.1% higher (1.6% y/y) during January following a 0.2% December rise. The increase matched consensus expectations in the Action Economics survey. Consumer prices excluding food and energy also gained 0.1% followed a like increase in December. The rise matched consensus expectations. Earlier figures were revised due to new seasonal factors.
A 0.6% rise (2.1% y/y) in energy prices provided modest of the upward pressure to last month's CPI. Fuel oil prices rose 6.8% (2.0% y/y) and natural gas costs increased 3.6% (4.9% y/y). Electricity prices also firmed 1.8% (4.4% y/y) but gasoline prices were off 1.0% (+0.1% y/y. Food price inflation remained tame and costs nudged 0.1% higher (1.1% y/y). Cereals & bakery product costs rose 0.5% (0.8% y/y) while dairy product prices also rose 0.5% (-0.4% y/y). Working the other way, fruit & vegetable costs dropped 0.3% (-0.6% y/y) and nonalcoholic beverage prices fell 0.2% (-1.5% y/y).
Consumer prices for goods less food and energy fell 0.1% (-0.3% y/y) as appliance prices slipped marginally (-4.0% y/y) and apparel prices declined 0.3% (-0.2% y/y). New vehicle prices also were off 0.3% last month (0.0% y/y) and educational books & supplies prices fell 1.9% (+2.5% y/y). Offsetting this weakness was a 0.5% rise (0.8% y/y) in medical care commodity prices.
Core services prices increased 0.2% (2.3% y/y). Shelter costs (32% of the CPI) gained 0.3% (2.6% y/y) as owners equivalent rent of primary residences rose 0.2% (2.5% y/y). Recreation services prices gained 0.4% (2.0% y/y) and medical care services prices rose 0.2% (2.5% y/y). Tuition prices were unchanged (3.0% y/y). To the downside, public transportation prices were off 1.4% (-2.4% y/y).
The minutes of the latest FOMC meeting can be found here.
The consumer price data is available in Haver's USECON database while detailed figures can be found in CPIDATA. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and is found in the AS1REPNA database.
| Consumer Price Index (%) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 3.2 |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.7 |
| Goods less Food & Energy | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.3 | -0.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Services less Energy | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.8 |
| Food | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 3.7 |
| Energy | 0.6 | 1.6 | -0.4 | 2.1 | -0.7 | 0.9 | 15.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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