Global| Jun 30 2015U.S. Consumer Confidence Nears Expansion High
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index increased 7.2% this month to 101.4 from 94.6 during May, revised from 95.4. It was the second firmest reading during the economic expansion and stronger than forecasts for 96.8 in the [...]
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index increased 7.2% this month to 101.4 from 94.6 during May, revised from 95.4. It was the second firmest reading during the economic expansion and stronger than forecasts for 96.8 in the Action Economics Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 45% correlation between the level of confidence and the three-month change in real personal consumption expenditures.
The consumer expectations component improved 9.7% to 94.6 (9.5% y/y) and attained the highest level in three months. The present situations figure gained 4.2% to 111.6 (29.3% y/y), the highest level in four months.
The percentage indicating that business conditions would get better rose to 18.5%, the highest level since January. Eighteen percent of respondents thought there would be more jobs, the most since last August. The expected inflation rate ticked up to 5.1%, its highest level in three months and 5.9% planned to buy a home, the most since November. Moving the other way, 46.5% planned to purchase a major appliance, the fewest since January.
Respondents indicating that current business conditions were good rose to the highest level in three months. Jobs were viewed as hard to get by a reduced 25.7% of respondents, just above the recovery low of 24.6%. Jobs were viewed as not so plentiful by 52.9% of respondents, down from the high of 55.5 six months ago.
Confidence rose in the two older age groups. Those over age 55 logged a 10.5% improvement, 22.9% y/y. Respondents between the ages of 35 to 54 showed greater confidence by 5.4% (15.7% y/y). In the younger age bracket 1.0% fewer respondents (+10.0% y/y) were confident.
The Consumer Confidence data is available in Haver's CBDB database. The total indexes appear in USECON and the market expectations are in AS1REPNA.
The Simulative Effect of Redistribution from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.
| Conference Board (SA, 1985=100) | Jun | May | Apr | Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence Index | 101.4 | 94.6 | 94.3 | 17.4 | 86.9 | 73.2 | 67.1 |
| Present Situation | 111.6 | 107.1 | 105.1 | 29.3 | 87.3 | 67.6 | 49.8 |
| Expectations | 94.6 | 86.2 | 87.1 | 9.5 | 86.6 | 77.0 | 78.6 |
| Consumer Confidence By Age Group | |||||||
| Under 35 Years | 116.1 | 117.3 | 115.1 | 10.0 | 106.6 | 93.1 | 86.5 |
| Aged 35-54 Years | 105.5 | 100.1 | 96.2 | 15.7 | 92.4 | 76.8 | 68.5 |
| Over 55 Years | 90.3 | 81.7 | 80.7 | 22.9 | 73.8 | 61.2 | 56.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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