Global| Dec 22 2011U.S. Chicago Fed Index Backpedals
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell during November to -0.37 from -0.11 in October, which was little-revised. The three-month moving average was unchanged at -0.24, its lowest level since June. The figures have been [...]
The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell during November
to -0.37 from -0.11 in October, which was little-revised. The three-month
moving average was unchanged at -0.24, its lowest level since June. The
figures have been negative for most of this year. During the last ten
years there has been an 83% correlation between the Chicago Fed Index and
the q/q change in real GDP.
A decline in the Production & Income component reversed its earlier improvement while Employment, Unemployment & Hours Series added to its October uptick. Personal Consumption & Housing continued lower while Sales, Orders & Inventories remained unchanged. Thirty-four of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the index in October while 51 made negative contributions.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend. During August, 41 of the 85 component series made a positive contribution to the overall index while 44 made a negative contribution.
The Chicago Federal Reserve figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| Chicago Federal Reserve Bank | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov'10 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFNAI | -0.37 | -0.11 | -0.24 | -0.18 | -0.02 | -1.63 | -1.94 |
| 3-Month Moving Average | -0.24 | -0.24 | -0.14 | -0.26 | -- | -- | -- |
| Personal Consumption & Housing | -0.29 | -0.30 | -0.27 | -0.33 | -0.34 | -0.38 | -0.26 |
| Employment, Unemployment & Hours | 0.14 | 0.01 | 0.18 | 0.01 | 0.03 | -0.81 | -0.67 |
| Production & Income | -0.23 | 0.16 | -0.01 | 0.04 | 0.22 | -0.27 | -0.70 |
| Sales, Orders & Inventories | 0.00 | 0.01 | -0.13 | 0.10 | 0.07 | -0.16 | -0.31 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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