Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
Global| Jul 29 2008

U.S. Chain Store Sales Surged To New High

Summary

Chain store sales were reported by the International Council of Shopping Centers to have surged last week. The 1.2% w/w jump was the strongest since early June. It lifted the level of sales to a record high and sales for most of this [...]


Chain store sales were reported by the International Council of Shopping Centers to have surged last week. The 1.2% w/w jump was the strongest since early June. It lifted the level of sales to a record high and sales for most of this month by 0.5% versus June. During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.

The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

Showing weakness, however, was the leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS which fell 0.9% (-4.0% y/y) after a 0.3% decline during the week prior. The chain store sales figures are available in Haver's SURVEYW database. Monetary Policy and Asset Markets: Conference Summary from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.

Research on the Effects of Fiscal Stimulus: Symposium Summary, also from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, is available here.

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 07/26/08 07/19/08 Y/Y 2007 2006 2005
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 499.2 493.4 2.6% 2.8% 3.3% 3.6%
  • Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

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