Global| Nov 15 2016U.S. Business Inventories Inch Higher
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total business inventories increased 0.1% during September (0.6% y/y) following an unrevised 0.2% August gain. Total business sales improved 0.7%, and were up 0.8% y/y. The inventory-to-sales ratio eased to 1.38, down sharply from [...]
Total business inventories increased 0.1% during September (0.6% y/y) following an unrevised 0.2% August gain. Total business sales improved 0.7%, and were up 0.8% y/y. The inventory-to-sales ratio eased to 1.38, down sharply from 1.41 during Q1.
New data in this report showed that retail inventories rose 0.2% (3.9% y/y) following a 0.6% increase, revised from a 0.7%. The gain was powered by a 0.7% surge (9.0% y/y) in motor vehicle inventories. Excluding autos, retail inventories were little changed (1.4% y/y). Furniture inventories declined 0.6%, (-1.5% y/y). Building material inventories grew 0.1% (4.0% y/y), but clothing inventories eased 0.1% (+1.0% y/y). Food & beverage store inventories gained 0.2% (2.3% y/y), but general merchandise store inventories fell 0.6% (-2.7% y/y). As reported earlier, wholesale inventories rose 0.1% (-0.1% y/y) while factory inventories were little changed (-1.9% y/y).
Business sales increased 0.7% in September (0.8% y/y) after a 0.3% gain. Retail sales increased 1.0% (2.9% y/y) while factory sector shipments improved 0.8% (-0.6% y/y) after a 0.2% rise. Wholesales trade sales increased 0.2% (0.4% y/y) after a 0.7% rise.
The overall business inventory-to-sales ratio eased m/m to 1.38, but was stable versus one year earlier. The retail I/S ratio fell to 1.49, while the ratio excluding autos also eased to 1.26. The wholesale sector I/S ratio remained steady at 1.33, and it eased to 1.34 in the factory sector.
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database.
| Manufacturing & Trade | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Inventories (% chg) | 0.1 | 0.2 | -0.0 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 3.7 | 3.9 |
| Retail | 0.2 | 0.6 | -0.2 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 7.4 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | -0.0 | 0.3 | -0.4 | 1.4 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 4.8 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 1.9 | 6.5 | 4.0 |
| Manufacturing | -0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | -1.9 | -2.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Business Sales (% chg) | |||||||
| Total | 0.7 | 0.3 | -0.3 | 0.8 | -2.6 | 2.8 | 2.9 |
| Retail | 1.0 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 3.9 | 3.8 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.7 | -0.1 | -0.4 | 2.6 | 0.2 | 3.2 | 2.6 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 0.2 | 0.7 | -0.6 | 0.4 | -4.3 | 3.6 | 3.1 |
| Manufacturing | 0.8 | 0.2 | -0.4 | -0.6 | -4.4 | 1.2 | 2.1 |
| I/S Ratio | |||||||
| Total | 1.38 | 1.39 | 1.39 | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.31 | 1.29 |
| Retail | 1.49 | 1.50 | 1.49 | 1.48 | 1.46 | 1.43 | 1.41 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.26 | 1.27 | 1.27 | 1.28 | 1.27 | 1.24 | 1.23 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.34 | 1.33 | 1.32 | 1.21 | 1.18 |
| Manufacturing | 1.34 | 1.35 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.31 | 1.30 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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