Global| Jun 22 2005Mortgage Applications Retraced Prior Week's Jump
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that last week, total mortgage applications retraced more than half of the prior week's surge and fell 11.3% w/w. Nevertheless, applications so far in June remain 11.0% ahead of the May [...]
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that last week, total mortgage applications retraced more than half of the prior week's surge and fell 11.3% w/w. Nevertheless, applications so far in June remain 11.0% ahead of the May average which rose 6.5% versus April.
Purchase applications retraced all of the prior week's surge and fell 9.4% w/w. In June, applications are 2.2% ahead of May which rose 3.1% from April. During the last ten years there has been a 50% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing single family home sales.
Applications to refinance reversed about one third of the prior week's 25.6% w/w jump. In June refis are 22.4% ahead of May.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage was about unchanged w/w at 5.86% and remained down from the 5.92% averaged during May. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage rose to 5.54%.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site here.
The latest National Delinquency Survey from the the Mortgage Bankers Association can be viewed here.
Is the Bond Market Irrational? from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available here.
Social Security, Saving, and Wealth Accumulation also from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.
| MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100) | 06/17/05 | 06/10/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Market Index | 786.8 | 887.0 | 30.9% | 735.1 | 1,067.9 | 799.7 |
| Purchase | 479.4 | 529.3 | 5.5% | 454.5 | 395.1 | 354.7 |
| Refinancing | 2,575.0 | 2,967.4 | 77.0% | 2,366.8 | 4,981.8 | 3,388.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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