Louise Curley

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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/090825a.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Asian economies appear to be emerging from recession. Thailand
is the latest Far Eastern country to report growth in its second
quarter GDP.The second quarter was 2.32% above the first quarter.
Contrary to the experience of other Asian economies, the source of
growth in Thailand has not been exports, but the business sector.Gross
fixed capital formation increased 5% after declining almost 13% in the
first quarter and the rate of inventory liquidation declined sharply
from a liquidation of 75,380 million baht in the first quarter to one
of 4,394 million baht in the second quarter. Private consumption barely
increased while government consumption was up by 1.6%. Exports actually
declined by over 3% in the second quarter while imports increased by
almost 9%. Perhaps part of the increase in exports was due to the
increase in fixed capital formation that often entails some foreign
know how.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/090825b.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Earlier, Singapore, South Korea, Indonesia and Greater
China--China, Hong Kong and Taiwan--all reported growth in the second
quarter. (China does not report quarter to quarter growth rates, but
the increase in the second quarter year over year growth implies an
increase in the first quarter.) The two charts show the growth that has
taken place in these countries in the second quarter.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Q/Q
Percent Changes ex where noted</th>
<th scope="col">Q2 09</th>
<th scope="col">Q1 09</th>
<th scope="col">Q4&nbsp; 08</th>
<th scope="col">Q3 08&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Q2 08</th>
<th scope="col">Q1 08&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">GDP,Mil US$ 2008 </th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">China (Y/Y Percent Change)</td>
<td>7.9</td>
<td>6.1</td>
<td>6.8</td>
<td>9.0</td>
<td>10.1</td>
<td>10.6</td>
<td>4,415,884</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Hong Kong</td>
<td>3.82</td>
<td>-4.44</td>
<td>-2.50</td>
<td>-1.71</td>
<td>-0.74</td>
<td>1.21</td>
<td>215</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Taiwan</td>
<td>4.51</td>
<td>-2.46</td>
<td>-6.14</td>
<td>-2.79</td>
<td>0.13</td>
<td>0.33</td>
<td>392</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Singapore</td>
<td>4.82</td>
<td>-3.21</td>
<td>4.38</td>
<td>-0.52</td>
<td>-198</td>
<td>2.92</td>
<td>182</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">South Korea</td>
<td>2.33</td>
<td>0.12</td>
<td>-5.07</td>
<td>-0.52</td>
<td>-1.98</td>
<td>2.92</td>
<td>947</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Indonesia</td>
<td>1.37</td>
<td>0.88</td>
<td>0.20</td>
<td>1.49</td>
<td>1.82</td>
<td>1.65</td>
<td>510</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Thailand</td>
<td>2.32</td>
<td>-1.85</td>
<td>-5.89</td>
<td>0.55</td>
<td>0.07</td>
<td>1.15</td>
<td>273</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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Asian economies appear to be emerging from recession. Thailand is the latest Far Eastern country to report growth in its second quarter GDP.The second quarter was 2.32% above the first quarter. Contrary to the experience of other [...]

More Good News From Asia: Thailand's Q2 GDP Increases 2.32%

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Sandy Batten

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The employment cost index (ECI) for civilian workers, arguably the most accurate measure of labor compensation in the United States, rose 0.9% q/q (3.6% y/y) in Q1, the same quarterly increase as in last year’s Q4, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The quarterly gains have fluctuated between 0.8% and 1.0% for the past six quarters. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 0.9% q/q increase and a 3.5% y/y gain.

Wages and salaries for civilian workers rose 0.8% q/q (3.5% y/y) in Q1, down from 1.0% q/q in Q4. This tied the Q3 2024 quarterly rise as the smallest increase since Q2 2021. It was also the smallest y/y increase since Q2 2021. Benefits increased by an outsized 1.2% q/q (3.9% y/y) in Q1 versus 0.8% q/q in Q4. This is the largest quarterly gain since Q2 2022. In general, employment cost gains remain above the pace observed prior to the pandemic but are slowing gradually.

Private industry workers’ compensation rose 0.8% q/q (3.4% y/y) in Q1, down from 0.9% q/q (3.6% y/y) in Q4. Wages and salaries for private industry workers increased 0.8% q/q (3.4% y/y) in Q1 versus 0.8% q/q (3.7% y/y) in Q4. The quarterly gain in Q1 tied that in Q3 2024 as the smallest increase since Q4 2020. Benefits for private industry workers jumped 1.2% q/q (3.6% y/y). the largest quarterly gain since Q2 2022. The acceleration in benefits in Q1 was primarily in service-producing industries.

Compensation in private goods-producing industries increased 1.0% q/q (3.2% y/y) in Q1, the largest quarterly gain in five quarters, versus a 0.7% q/q increase in Q4. Compensation in construction jumped 1.3% q/q, its largest quarterly increase since Q2 2022, up from a 0.6% q/q gain in Q4. Manufacturing compensation growth slowed to 0.7% q/q, its slowest quarterly advance since Q4 2020, from 0.8% q/q in Q4. Compensation in private service-producing industries increased 0.8% q/q (3.5% y/y), down slightly from a 0.9% q/q gain in Q4. Compensation in education and health services jumped 1.3% q/q, its largest quarterly gain since Q3 2023. In contrast, compensation in other services edged up 0.1% q/q in Q1, its smallest quarterly advance since before the pandemic.

The employment cost index measures the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts across occupations and industries. It is provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is available in Haver’s **USECON** database. Consensus estimates from the Action Economics Forecast Survey are in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Compensation grew 0.9 q/q in Q1, the same pace as in Q4.
- Wage growth slowed to 0.8% q/q while benefits surged 1.2% q/q, their largest quarterly increase since Q2 2022.

Employment Cost Growth Steady in Q1 2025

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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The ADP National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls rose 62,000 (1.4% y/y) during April after increasing 147,000 (1.4% y/y) during March, revised from 155,000. A 124,000 April rise in ADP employment had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Growth in median annual pay for "job stayers" eased to 4.5% y/y during April, from 4.6% y/y in March and from 4.7% y/y in the prior two months. Manufacturing sector pay grew 4.6% y/y during April, down from 4.8% y/y in March. Construction sector pay was unchanged at 4.7% y/y. Natural resource & mining sector pay grew 4.4% y/y. Financial sector pay rose 5.1% y/y, while education & health services pay rose 4.7% y/y. Leisure & hospitality pay also increased 4.7% y/y. Professional & business service sector pay increased 4.3% y/y as did trade, transportation & utilities pay. Information pay rose 4.1% y/y. Median annual pay for “job changers” rose 6.9% y/y after 6.7% y/y in March.

Small business hiring (less than 50 employees) rose 11,000 (0.6% y/y) after rising 18,000 (0.6% y/y) in March, revised down from 52,000. Employment at medium-sized firms (50-499,000 employees) rose 40,000 (1.1% y/y) after rising 43,000 (1.1% y/y). Large business hiring (500+ employees) rose 12,000 (3.4% y/y) in April, after rising 61,000 (3.6% y/y) in March, revised from 59,000.

Goods-producing employment rose 26,000 (1.3% y/y) in April, after rising 16,000 (1.3% y/y) during March, revised from 24,000. Manufacturing jobs rose 4,000 (-0.2% y/y) after rising 17,000 (-0.3% y/y) in March. The number of construction sector jobs rose 16,000 (3.4% y/y) in April, following a 2,000 (3.6% y/y) March increase, revised from 6,000. Natural resources & mining jobs rose 6,000 (2.8% y/y) in April after falling 3,000 (+1.9% y/y) in March.

The number of service-producing jobs rose 34,000 (1.4% y/y) during April, following a rise of 131,000 (1.4% y/y) in March. Professional & business services employment fell 2,000 (0.6% y/y) after rising 46,000 (0.7% y/y) in the prior month, revised from 57,000. Employment in the financial industry rose 20,000 (2.1% y/y) in April, after rising 38,000 (2.0% y/y) in March. Leisure and hospitality employment increased 27,000 (3.0% y/y), following a 23,000 (2.9% y/y) March increase, revised from 17,000. The number of education & health care jobs fell 23,000 (1.6% y/y) in April, following a 15,000 (1.8% y/y) rise in March, revised from 12,000. Information sector employment fell 8,000 (-0.1% y/y) after a rise of 3,000 (0.2% y/y) in March. The number of jobs in trade, transportation & utilities rose 21,000 (0.4% y/y) in April, after falling 4,000 (+0.4% y/y) in March, revised from a 6,000 fall. Employment in “other” services rose fell 1,000 (+3.2% y/y) following a 10,000 (3.4% y/y) rise in March, revised from 11,000.

By region, employment in the Northeast increased 10,000 (1.9% y/y) in April, following an increase of 95,000 (2.0% y/y) in March, revised from 89,000. Employment in the Midwest rose 42,000 (1.5% y/y) after a gain of 84,000 (1.4% y/y) in March, revised from 81,000. In the South, employment rose 3,000 (1.3% y/y) during April, after rising 10,000 (1.4% y/y) in March, revised from 27,000. In the West, employment rose 9,000 (0.6% y/y) after declining 43,000 (+0.6% y/y), revised from a 41,000 decline in March.

The ADP National Employment Report and Pay Insights data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Historical figures date back to January 2010 for private employment. Pay data date back to October 2020. The expectation figure is available in Haver's **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Employment increase is modest in both services & factory sectors.
- Wage growth for “job stayers” moderates.
- Small and medium-sized business employment slows.

U.S. ADP Payrolls Rise Modestly in April

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Mortgage applications declined 4.2% (+16.4% y/y) in the week ended April 25, after dropping 12.7% (+18.7% y/y) in the week ended April 18, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications to refinance an existing mortgage dropped 3.7% (+42.0% y/y) in the week ended April 25 after plunging 20.0% (+42.5% y/y) in the week ended April 18. Loan applications to purchase a home declined 4.4% (+3.5% y/y) in the latest week after falling 6.6% (+6.4% y/y) in the prior week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed rate loan edged down 1bp to 7.08% in the week ended April 25 from 7.09% in the week ended April 18. The effective rate on a 15-year fixed rate loan rose 2bps to 6.36% in the week ended April 25 from 6.34% in the week of April 18. The rate on a 30-year jumbo loan rose 3bps to 7.06% in the latest week from 7.03% in the prior week, while the rate on a 5-year ARM eased 7bps to 6.12% in the week ended April 25 from 6.19% in the week ended April 18.

The share of applications to refinance an existing mortgage remained at a 10-month low of 37.3% in the week ended April 25, unchanged from the prior week. The share of loans with an adjustable rate fell to 7.4% in the latest week from 7.5% in the week ended April 18.

The average size of a mortgage loan declined 0.7% (+1.6% y/y) to $384,100 in the week ended April 25, after dropping 6.8% (+1.3% y/y) to $386,800 in the week ended April 18. The average size of a loan to purchase a home rose to $440,100 (+0.9% y/y) in the latest week from $439,900 (+0.5% y/y) in the week prior. The average size of a loan to refinance an outstanding mortgage dropped to $289,800 (+18.5% y/y) in the week ended April 25 from $297,700 (+16.4% y/y) in the week ended April 18.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Refinancing and purchase loan applications decline.
- Effective interest rates are range-bound.
- Average loan size falls

Mortgage Applications Continue to Fall in Latest Week

Tom Moeller

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The Conference Board's Index of Consumer Confidence fell 8.4% (-11.8% y/y) to 86.0 after a 6.2% decline in March to 93.9, revised from down 7.2%. A reading of 87.2 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The April figure was 23.8% below its November 2024 high. Weakness in confidence is widespread amongst components in this latest report.

The Expectations Index plunged 18.7% (-20.9% y/y) to 54.4, after falling 10.6% in March, revised from a 12.8% decline. This latest figure was the weakest since October 2011. The Present Situation index fell 0.7% (-5.0% y/y) to 133.5, after declining 2.7% in March and 1.3% in February. The reading was the lowest in seven months.

The percentage of respondents assessing business conditions as “good” rose to 19.2% this month after declining to 18.3% in March. The index hit a high of 22.0% in October. The percentage assessing conditions as “bad” eased to 16.1% after rising to 16.5% in March. The appraisal of labor market conditions dipped m/m in April as 31.7% of respondents thought jobs were plentiful, down from 33.6% in March. Jobs were viewed as hard to get by 16.6% of respondents this month, up from 16.1% in March. This measure has risen from 11.0% in January 2024. The labor market differential calculated by Haver Analytics (the percentage of consumers who think jobs are plentiful minus the percentage who believe that jobs are currently hard to get) fell to 15.1% compared to 17.5% in March and remained below a high of 47.1% in March 2022. This series has a 60% correlation with the unemployment rate over the last ten years.

Expectations for business conditions deteriorated in April. A lessened 15.7% of respondents expect conditions to improve over the next six months, down from 20.8% in both February and January, while a higher 34.8% expect them to deteriorate, up from 25.5% in February. On employment, a lessened 13.7% expect the number of jobs to increase over the next six months. The percentage expecting the number of jobs to decline in the next six months rose to 32.1% after surging to 26.6% in February. A lessened 15.0% expect income to increase in six months. That remained down from a high of 20.7% in November and compares to a higher 18.2% who expect income to decrease, up from 11.8% in October.

The expected rate of price inflation over the next twelve months jumped to 7.0% in April after increasing to 6.0% in March. This compares to a low of 5.0% in November. Interest rates are expected to rise this year by a higher 56.1% of respondents, up from a 45.5% low in November 2024. The percentage of respondents expecting equity prices to increase over the next twelve months declined to 36.1% after dropping from 57.2% in November, while the percentage expecting a decline in stock prices jumped to 48.5% from a 21.7 low in November.

The percentage of respondents planning to buy a home fell in April to 4.5% from 5.6% in March. Plans to purchase an automobile eased to 10.5% this month, down from 10.7% in March and February.

The Consumer Confidence data are available in Haver’s **CBDB** database. The total indexes, which are indexed to 1985=100, appear in **USECON**, and market expectations are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Confidence weakens to lowest level since May 2020.
- Expectations reading plummets to 2011 low; present situation reading eases.
- Inflation and interest rate expectations rise further.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Slides Again in April; Inflation Expectations Strengthen