Global| Sep 15 2010Industrial Production's Rise Is Modest As Automakers Scale Back
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Last month's modest 0.2% gain in industrial production suffered from lower output of motor vehicles and matched Consensus expectations. However, overall forward momentum has lagged of late. The latest increase followed a downwardly [...]
Last month's modest 0.2% gain in industrial production suffered from lower output of motor vehicles and matched Consensus expectations. However, overall forward momentum has lagged of late. The latest increase followed a downwardly revised 0.6% July gain and monthly increases as high as 1.4% back to July of last year.
Factory sector output ticked up just 0.1% last month after a 0.8% July gain that was initially reported as 1.1%. The weakness was led by lower durable consumer goods production, which dropped 3.0% (+9.5% y/y) due to a 5.0% drop (+19.3% y/y) in auto output. Other durable goods sectors, however, suffered as well. Furniture output was off 1.9% m/m but still rose 2.3% y/y. Nondurable goods output recovered 0.5% (3.4% y/y) as apparel production jumped 1.5% (4.2% y/y) and recovered all of its July decline. Despite the hot summer, utilities output fell 1.6% but remained up 6.0% y/y due to strong gains this spring.
Capacity utilization ticked higher to 74.7% and remained well above last year's low of 68.2%. Industrial production and capacity data are included in Haver's USECON database, with additional detail in the IP database.
| Industrial Production (SA, % Change) | August | July | June | Year Ago | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Output | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 6.2 | -9.3 | -3.3 | 2.7 |
| Manufacturing | 0.1 | 0.8 | -0.3 | 6.2 | -11.1 | -4.5 | 2.9 |
| Consumer Goods | -0.4 | 0.7 | -0.1 | 4.4 | -5.8 | -4.2 | 0.9 |
| Business Equipment | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 9.9 | -12.2 | -1.5 | 4.5 |
| Construction Supplies | 0.8 | -0.4 | 0.1 | 5.0 | -16.7 | -9.5 | -1.2 |
| Materials | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 7.0 | -9.7 | -2.7 | 3.7 |
| Utilities | -1.6 | -0.3 | 3.9 | 6.0 | -2.6 | -0.1 | 3.4 |
| Capacity Utilization (%) | 74.7 | 74.6 | 74.1 | 70.0 | 70.0 | 77.9 | 81.3 |
| Manufacturing | 72.2 | 72.1 | 71.6 | 67.6 | 67.2 | 75.0 | 79.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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