Global| Mar 14 2019Import Prices Strengthen With Higher Oil Costs; Export Prices Move Up As Well
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Labor Department reported that import prices rose 0.6% during February (-1.3 y/y) after improving 0.1% in January, revised from a 0.5% decline. A 0.3% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These figures [...]
The Labor Department reported that import prices rose 0.6% during February (-1.3 y/y) after improving 0.1% in January, revised from a 0.5% decline. A 0.3% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These figures are not seasonally adjusted.
The rise in import prices last month was paced by a 4.7% increase (-7.9% y/y) in petroleum costs which followed a 7.1% gain. Nonpetroleum import costs edged 0.1% higher, but still were down an increased 0.5% y/y. Industrial supplies & materials costs rose 2.2% (-3.2% y/y) after a 1.1% rise, but excluding petroleum, they gained 0.8% (0.1% y/y) after a 2.7% drop. Capital goods prices eased 0.1% (-0.7% y/y) after holding steady in January. Motor vehicle & parts prices were unchanged (-0.5% y/y) after a 0.2% decline. Nonauto consumer goods prices rose 0.3% (0.1% y/y) and reversed the prior month's decline.
Export prices also improved 0.6% (0.3% y/y) after three months of sharp decline. A 0.1% uptick had been expected. Agricultural commodities prices rose 0.3% last month (-0.2% y/y) after a 2.1% weakening. Nonagricultural export costs strengthened 0.7% (0.3% y/y) after three straight months of decline. Food, feeds & beverage prices rose 0.3% (0.4% y/y) after a 2.0% fall. The cost of industrial supplies & materials rebounded 1.6% (-2.2% y/y) after three months of sharp decline. Capital goods prices rose 0.2% (1.6% y/y) after a 0.4% rise, but the cost of computers, peripherals and semiconductors fell 0.4% (-0.7% y/y). Motor vehicle & parts prices improved 0.4% (0.6% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick. Nonauto consumer goods prices increased 0.3% (0.0% y/y) and reversed January's decline.
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imports - All Commodities | 0.6 | 0.1 | -1.4 | -1.3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | -3.3 |
| Petroleum & Petroleum Products | 4.7 | 7.1 | -15.3 | -7.9 | 22.0 | 26.6 | -19.7 |
| Nonpetroleum | 0.1 | -0.6 | 0.2 | -0.5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | -1.5 |
| Exports - All Commodities | 0.6 | -0.5 | -0.7 | 0.3 | 3.4 | 2.4 | -3.2 |
| Agricultural | 0.3 | -2.1 | 3.7 | -0.2 | 0.6 | 1.5 | -5.4 |
| Nonagricultural | 0.7 | -0.3 | -1.1 | 0.3 | 3.7 | 2.5 | -3.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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