Global| Jun 15 2011Empire State Factory Index Turns Negative
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that its Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions fell to -7.79. The figure was the first negative reading since November of last year. The number ran counter to Consensus [...]
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that its Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions fell to -7.79. The figure was the first negative reading since November of last year. The number ran counter to Consensus expectations for 13.5. These data are diffusion indexes which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting poorer business conditions from those reporting improvement. Thus, they have a good correlation with growth in the series covered. Since inception in 2001, the business conditions index has a 77% correlation with the quarterly change in real GDP.
Deterioration amongst the component series was widespread. Three of the series turned negative including new orders, shipments and delivery times (faster speeds). The employment series also weakened to its lowest since March. During the last ten years there has been an 82% correlation between the index and the m/m change in the BLS measure of factory sector employment. The index of prices paid also reversed the gains of the prior two months.
The Empire State index of expected business conditions in six months dropped sharply to its lowest level since March 2009. The separate series for capital spending fell moderately.
The Empire State data is available in Haver's SURVEYS database. The figures are diffusion indexes. Like the Philadelphia Fed Index of General Business Conditions, the Empire State Business Conditions Index reflects answers to independent survey questions; it is not a weighted combination of the components. The series dates back only to 2001.
| Empire State Manufacturing Survey | Jun | May | Apr | Jun'10 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General Business Conditions (diffusion index, %) | -7.79 | 11.88 | 21.70 | 17.71 | 13.80 | -2.81 | -9.96 |
| New Orders | -3.61 | 17.19 | 22.34 | 17.55 | 9.93 | -2.51 | -6.23 |
| Shipments | -8.02 | 25.75 | 28.29 | 15.62 | 11.66 | 2.80 | 0.36 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.00 | 9.68 | 2.56 | -1.23 | -6.58 | -13.36 | -8.72 |
| Delivery Time | -3.06 | 2.15 | -1.28 | 9.88 | -2.87 | -8.18 | -3.63 |
| Inventories | 1.02 | 10.75 | -1.28 | 1.02 | -1.48 | -22.89 | -7.87 |
| Employment | 10.20 | 24.73 | 23.08 | 12.35 | 11.78 | -17.28 | -5.36 |
| Prices Paid | 56.12 | 69.89 | 57.69 | 27.16 | 29.63 | 1.33 | 46.99 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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