Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
Global| Sep 01 2010

Challenger Layoffs Diminish And Hiring Plans Improve

Summary

According to the outplacement firm of Challenger, Grey & Christmas the level of layoffs during August fell to 34,768, the smallest number since June of 2000. The level remains down by more than one-half from last year. Planned layoffs [...]


According to the outplacement firm of Challenger, Grey & Christmas the level of layoffs during August fell to 34,768, the smallest number since June of 2000. The level remains down by more than one-half from last year. Planned layoffs announced during the first eight months of 2010 totaled 374,121, down two-thirds from the 1,070,504 announced during the first eight months of 2009. Despite the decline in layoffs, the unemployment rate from the Census Department remains high as the number of long-term unemployed has surged.

Layoffs fell in August in the financial, construction, computer, electronics, health care, government and pharmaceutical industries but rose in apparel, industrial goods, energy, services and automotive. During the last ten years there has been a 67% (inverse) correlation between the three-month moving average of announced job cuts and the three-month change in payroll employment. Job cut announcements differ from layoffs. Many are achieved through attrition, early retirement or just never occur.

Challenger also samples firms' hiring plans and August plans reversed the declines of the prior two months. Versus August '09 plans rose 7.4%. Plans picked during August in the entertainment/leisure, auto, health care and services industries but fell sharply in computers, media and transportation.

The Challenger figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.

Challenger, Gray & Christmas August July June Y/Y 2009 2008 2007
Announced Job Cuts 34,768 41,676 39,358 -54.5% 1,288,030 1,223,993 768,264
Announced Hiring Plans 14,075 8,151 11,732 7.4% 272,573 118,600 365,583
  • Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

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