Tom Moeller

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020618b.jpg" width="353">
Consumer prices were unchanged last month versus Consensus expectations for a 0.1% rise. Less food &amp; energy prices rose an expected 0.2%.
Tobacco prices partially reversed their April surge and fell 2.7%. Excluding tobacco, the core CPI rose 0.2% (2.4% y/y) for the sixth consecutive month.
Energy prices fell for the second month this year. Gasoline prices fell 2.8% (-17.2% y/y) but fuel oil prices rose 1.0% (-13.4% y/y). Piped gas and electricity prices rose 1.1%s.
Core inflation was quite tame. Home furnishings and operation prices rose 0.3% but are unchanged y/y. New vehicle prices fell for the fifth consecutive month. Apparel prices fell for the third month this year.
Core services prices rose moderately. Shelter prices rose just 0.2% (4.0% y/y) but medical care services were again strong, up 0.6% (5.1% y/y). Public transportation prices also were strong, up 2.1% (1.2% y/y).

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E801/@E80101/@E80101.HTM">Consumer Price Index</a></th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total&nbsp;</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Total less Food &amp; Energy</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Goods less Food &amp; Energy</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Services less Energy</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Energy</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>4.5%</td>
<td>-12.2%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>16.9%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Food &amp; Beverages</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Housing Starts Strong in May 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> June 18, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020618c.jpg" width="353">
Housing starts were much stronger than expected last month owing to gains in single and multi-family starts. April starts were little revised. 
Single-family starts rose 9.6% following two months of decline, though starts did not reach their February peak level.
Multi-family starts surged 20.3% due to gains in the 5+ category which had fallen sharply in April.
Starts in each of the country&#39;s regions rose quite strongly.
Building permits rose moderately after a slight April gain. Permits are roughly 2.0% below the peak levels of this past winter.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E901/@E90101/@E90101.HTM">Housing Starts (000s, AR)</a></th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>1,733</td>
<td>1,553</td>
<td>8.0%</td>
<td>1,603</td>
<td>1,573</td>
<td>1,647</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Single Family</td>
<td>1,389</td>
<td>1,267</td>
<td>8.4%</td>
<td>1,273</td>
<td>1,232</td>
<td>1,306</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Multi Family</td>
<td>344</td>
<td>286</td>
<td>6.5%</td>
<td>330</td>
<td>341</td>
<td>341</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Chain Store Sales Up for the Second Week 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> June 18, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020618a.jpg" width="353">
Chain store sales rose 0.7% in the second week of June following a surge the prior week, according to the BTM-UBSW survey.
So far in June sales are up 1.8% from the May average.
The leading indicator of chain store sales published by BTM fell moderately in early June after surging the end of May.
During the last ten years there has been a 40% correlation between the year-to-year percent change in monthly chain store sales and the change in general merchandise store sales.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">BTM-UBSW (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">6/15/02</th>
<th scope="col">6/8/02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>414.6</td>
<td>411.6</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Consumer prices were unchanged last month versus Consensus expectations for a 0.1% rise. Less food & energy prices rose an expected 0.2%. Tobacco prices partially reversed their April surge and fell 2.7%. Excluding tobacco, the core [...]

CPI Total Unchanged, Core Prices Weak

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020617a.jpg" width="353">
Growth in the monetary aggregates, both broad and narrow, surged last month. The surge, however, was only back to a monthly rate of growth often observed through 2001.
Earlier in 2002, growth in monetary aggregates slowed dramatically. Therefore, on a three-month basis, liquidity growth remained depressed. 
The surge in May was due mostly to a shift in &quot;other checkable deposits&quot; which had dropped sharply in April but resumed growing in May. That added to a surge in retail money funds and savings deposits.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E1/@E103/@E10301/@E10301.HTM">Money Supply</a></th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">M2</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>7.9%</td>
<td>8.8%</td>
<td>6.1%</td>
<td>7.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">M3</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>7.8%</td>
<td>11.5%</td>
<td>9.4%</td>
<td>8.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">MZM</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>14.0%</td>
<td>15.9%</td>
<td>8.1%</td>
<td>12.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
NAHB Housing Index Flat in 2002 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> June 17, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020617b.jpg" width="353">
The Nat&#39;l Association of Home Builders index of new home sales remained unchanged in June versus May, which was revised down slightly.
The index components for both current and expected new home sales have been flat-to-lower for most of this year. 
During the last fifteen years there has been a 70% correlation between the annual percent change in the NAHB Index and the change in new home sales.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Housing Market Index</td>
<td>60</td>
<td>60</td>
<td>58</td>
<td>56</td>
<td>62</td>
<td>73</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Growth in the monetary aggregates, both broad and narrow, surged last month. The surge, however, was only back to a monthly rate of growth often observed through 2001. Earlier in 2002, growth in monetary aggregates slowed [...]

Liquidity Improved in May

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020614a.jpg" width="353">
Total business inventories fell in April an expected 0.2%. The previously reported decline in March inventories was deepened due mostly to a lowered estimate of wholesale inventories.
Retail inventories, reported for the first time, rose for the third month this year. Nonauto retail inventories fell slightly, the third drop this year. Nonauto retail inventories are down 2.2% since the peak in January 2001. 
Inventories of autos, furniture &amp; home furnishings and building materials have been rising for several months. Conversely, general merchandise inventories have been declining steadily and apparel inventories recently have been flat-to-lower.
Overall business sales rose 1.8% (0.6% y/y) on the strength of higher retail, wholesale and factory sales.
The inventory-to-sales ratio fell to 1.35 on the strength of sales.
For a comprehensive discussion of inventory behavior during the recent cycle, see the NY Fed&#39;s analysis at <a href="http://www.newyorkfed.org/rmaghome/curr_iss/html/civ8n5/civ8n5.html">http://www.newyorkfed.org/rmaghome/curr_iss/html/civ8n5/civ8n5.html</a> .

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED06/@ED0601/@ED0601.HTM">Business Inventories</a></th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">Mar</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>-6.1%</td>
<td>-6.1%</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
<td>5.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Retail</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-2.5%</td>
<td>-5.0%</td>
<td>6.1%</td>
<td>7.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Retail excl. Autos</td>
<td>-0.0%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>-1.9%</td>
<td>-2.0%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Wholesale</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>-7.0%</td>
<td>-5.5%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Manufacturing</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
<td>-8.6%</td>
<td>-7.5%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Industrial Production Rose Weakly 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> June 14, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020614b.jpg" width="353">
Industrial production rose less than expected in May, but it still was the fifth consecutive monthly rise. April&#39;s gain was revised slightly lower. Factory sector output rose 0.2%, the same as in April for the fifth gain this year.
Excluding high tech, production rose 0.1% following three months of 0.3% gain. High tech output rose 1.2% on the strength of strong semiconductor output and higher computer production.
Output of consumer goods was flat, held back by lower auto and nondurable production but buoyed by strength of home electronics and appliances.
Output of business equipment rose slightly following three months of decline. Output of transportation equipment fell 3.1% for the fourth very-weak month this year
Capacity utilization rose for the fifth month this year. Monthly gains in capacity have been 0.1% since April of last year.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EA/@EA.HTM">Production &amp; Capacity</a></th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Industrial Production</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>-1.6%</td>
<td>-3.7%</td>
<td>4.5%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Capacity Utilization</td>
<td>75.5%</td>
<td>75.4%</td>
<td>77.5%(5/01)</td>
<td>76.8%</td>
<td>81.8%</td>
<td>81.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Consumer Sentiment Down Sharply 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> June 14, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020614c.jpg" width="353">
The mid-June reading of Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan fell unexpectedly versus May.
Sentiment nearly reversed all of the gains of the prior three months.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.
During the past five years there has been a 37% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the 3-month change in real PCE.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF14/@EF1402/@EF1402.HTM">Univ. of Michigan</a></th>
<th scope="col">Mid-June</th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Consumer Sentiment</td>
<td>90.8</td>
<td>96.9</td>
<td>-1.9%</td>
<td>89.2</td>
<td>107.6</td>
<td>105.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Total business inventories fell in April an expected 0.2%. The previously reported decline in March inventories was deepened due mostly to a lowered estimate of wholesale inventories. Retail inventories, reported for the first time, [...]

Business Inventories Fell As Expected

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020613b.jpg" width="353">
Total retail sales fell more than expected last month due to broad based declines. April sales were little revised. Sales excluding autos also fell versus expectations for a slight rise. 
Declines were widespread. Sales of motor vehicles (-5.8% YTD), apparel (-0.7% YTD), general merchandise (+1.7% YTD), gasoline (+8.6% YTD), building materials (+7.1% YTD) and restaurants (+0.1% YTD) all fell.
Sales of furniture, home furnishings and electronics rose sharply (0.9% YTD) led by strong electronics sales. 
Unit sales in May of domestic and imported light vehicles fell a sharp 9.7% to 15.67M (SAAR). 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/usecon/@ED/@ED04/@ED0401/@ED0401.HTM">Retail Sales &amp; Food Services</a></td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
<td>8.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Excluding Autos</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>7.3%</td>
<td>7.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Producer Prices Fell for Second Month 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> June 13, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020613c.jpg" width="353">
Finished producer prices fell vs. Consensus expectations for a 0.1% gain. It was the second consecutive decline in May led by lower energy prices. Core finished goods prices were unchanged (-0.1% YTD), about as expected.
Energy prices fell for the first time since January led by lower prices for gasoline and heating oil. Market gasoline prices in early June are flat-to-lower versus May.
Food prices fell for the second consecutive month.
Core finished consumer goods prices were unchanged (0.1% YTD). Core nondurable goods prices were unchanged and durable goods prices fell for the fourth month this year. Capital goods prices also dropped for the fourth month this year. 
Intermediate goods prices were broadly weak led by lower nondurable prices. 
Crude goods prices rose, although many commodity prices fell through the month.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E802/@E80201/@E80201.HTM">Producer Price Index</a></th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Finished Goods</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>-2.7%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Core</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Intermediate Goods</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>-3.0%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Core</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-1.4%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Crude Goods</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
<td>-15.9%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>22.8%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Core</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>-9.9%</td>
<td>7.3%</td>
<td>-4.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Up Moderately 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> June 13, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020613a.jpg" width="353">
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose moderately in the latest week, about as expected. The prior week&#39;s level, which had fallen sharply, was little revised. 
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell for the third week and the prior week&#39;s level was revised down.
The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 402,500, -2.2% y/y. 
The insured rate of unemployment fell slightly to 2.9%.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">6/8/02</th>
<th scope="col">6/1/02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>390.0</td>
<td>384.0</td>
<td>-6.5%</td>
<td>405.8</td>
<td>299.8</td>
<td>297.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>3,773</td>
<td>27.1%</td>
<td>3,021</td>
<td>2,114</td>
<td>2,186</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Total retail sales fell more than expected last month due to broad based declines. April sales were little revised. Sales excluding autos also fell versus expectations for a slight rise. Declines were widespread. Sales of motor [...]

Retail Sales Broadly Lower in May

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020612a.jpg" width="353">
Prices for imported commodities were unchanged last month versus April. Consensus estimates were for a 0.4% gain. April figures were revised up due to a stronger gain in nonpetroleum import prices.
Petroleum import prices rose modestly. It was the weakest gain in petroleum prices this year. So far in June, the price of Arab Light crude oil has averaged just under $22.00/bbl versus $23.14 in May.
Nonpetroleum import prices fell unexpectedly for the third month this year. The decline came despite the fourth strong gain in food prices this year.
Prices for imported capital goods, nonauto consumer goods and autos were all flat or lower.
Export prices fell for the third month this year following two months of moderate gain. Prices in most categories were flat or down except industrial supplies which rose modestly.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E807/@E807.HTM">Import/Export Prices (NSA)</a></th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Import - All Commodities</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>-3.8%</td>
<td>-3.5%</td>
<td>6.5%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Petroleum</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>12.7%</td>
<td>-2.2%</td>
<td>-17.2%</td>
<td>66.5%</td>
<td>34.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Nonpetroleum</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>-3.0%</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>-1.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Export - All Commodities</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>-1.7%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Prices for imported commodities were unchanged last month versus April. Consensus estimates were for a 0.4% gain. April figures were revised up due to a stronger gain in nonpetroleum import prices. Petroleum import prices rose [...]

Import Prices Surprisingly Unchanged

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020611a.jpg" width="353">
Chain store sales jumped 1.6% in the first week of June following four consecutive weeks when sales were flat or down according to BTM-UBSW.
For all of May, sales rose 0.8% from the April average owing to a surge in sales early in the month.
The leading indicator of chain store sales published by BTM also jumped late in May. The index rose 1.1% in the last full week of the month following a 0.7% gain the week prior.
During the last ten years there has been a 40% correlation between the year-to-year percent change in monthly chain store sales and the change in general merchandise store sales.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">BTM-UBSW (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">6/8/02</th>
<th scope="col">6/1/02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>411.6</td>
<td>405.0</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Chain store sales jumped 1.6% in the first week of June following four consecutive weeks when sales were flat or down according to BTM-UBSW. For all of May, sales rose 0.8% from the April average owing to a surge in sales early in the [...]

Chain Store Sales Jumped

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020610a.jpg" width="353">
Consumer borrowing rose somewhat more than expected in April. March figures were revised up due to faster reported growth in both revolving and nonrevolving credit. It was the fastest m/m gain in consumer credit outstanding since November. 
Revolving credit rose by a moderate 0.6% m/m. It was the first material monthly gain since November. Nevertheless, year-to-year growth in revolving credit slowed to its lowest rate since the credit crunch of 1980.
Nonrevolving credit rose 0.5%. That rate of gain has been steady for the last four months but down versus a 0.7% average monthly gain last year.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E1/@E103/@E10308/@E10308.HTM">Consumer Credit Outstanding</a></th>
<th scope="col">April m/m</th>
<th scope="col">Mar m/m</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>$8.8B</td>
<td>$6.8B</td>
<td>5.6%</td>
<td>7.0%</td>
<td>10.2%</td>
<td>7.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Revolving</td>
<td>$4.2B</td>
<td>$2.3B</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>5.3%</td>
<td>11.5%</td>
<td>6.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Nonrevolving</td>
<td>$4.8B</td>
<td>$4.4B</td>
<td>7.8%</td>
<td>8.2%</td>
<td>9.2%</td>
<td>8.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Consumer borrowing rose somewhat more than expected in April. March figures were revised up due to faster reported growth in both revolving and nonrevolving credit. It was the fastest m/m gain in consumer credit outstanding since [...]

Consumer Credit Growth Up in April

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020607a.jpg" width="353">
Payrolls rose somewhat less than expected last month and the modest gain in April payrolls was revised down.
The Establishment Survey of nonfarm payrolls, hours, and earnings was revised to reflect annual benchmark adjustments and updated seasonal adjustment factors. Revisions were small.
Despite the weakness in nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate fell unexpectedly. Household employment rose 441,000 (-0.6% y/y) and the labor force rose 199,000 (0.9% y/y).
The one-month diffusion index for nonfarm payrolls rose to 50.6, the first month above 50 since last March. This breadth of change measure was reported last month rising to 50.7 for April but that was revised down to 49.7.
Factory sector jobs continued to fall, down 11.2% versus the peak in April 1998. The one month diffusion index for the factory sector fell to 46.7%.
Construction sector jobs (-2.6% y/y) fell for the fifth month this year. 
Employment in the service sector (-0.2% y/y) rose moderately for the third consecutive month. 
The index of aggregate hours worked (employment times hours worked) fell 0.1% and so far in 2Q is up just slightly from the 1Q average. 
Average hourly earnings rose a less than expected 0.2%.
The employment figures for nonfarm payrolls are based on reports provided to the US Labor Department by businesses, while the figures from which the unemployment rate is derived are based on a survey of US households.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">

</table>
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EB/@EB01/@EB01.HTM">Employment</a></th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Payroll Employment</td>
<td>41,000</td>
<td>6,000</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Manufacturing</td>
<td>-19,000</td>
<td>-22,000</td>
<td>-6.1%</td>
<td>-4.2%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Average Weekly Hours</td>
<td>34.2</td>
<td>34.2</td>
<td>34.2</td>
<td>34.2</td>
<td>34.4</td>
<td>34.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Average Hourly Earnings</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate</td>
<td>5.8%</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>4.8%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Payrolls rose somewhat less than expected last month and the modest gain in April payrolls was revised down. The Establishment Survey of nonfarm payrolls, hours, and earnings was revised to reflect annual benchmark adjustments and [...]

May Payrolls Weak, but the Jobless Rate Fell

Latest PMIs show US losing momentum while RoW is gaining momentum

Sticky services prices behind sticky overall PCE inflation

Flash April PMIs point to slower growth in the US but a pickup in Europe and Japan

Outlook strengthens for US while it weakens for other major economies

Crude petroleum prices are having a big impact on inflation expectations

Inflation surprising to upside in the US; by contrast to the downside in the euro area

 Gross Domestic Income is catching up with GDP

FOMC expects GDP growth above trend over the next three years

US core CPI inflation has begun to reaccelerate

Fiscal-policy aided factory building in the U.S. provided an unusually large boost to growth last year

US consumers much more optimistic than those in the Euro area and the UK

  Job openings take a step down in 2024

Fed's super core services inflation measure pushing up core rate

Blue Chip forecasters expect significant monetary easing this year except in Japan

Euro area economy stagnating while US grows above trend

Chinese and Japanese equity markets are diverging markedly

Chinese population declines in 2023 for second consecutive year

Outlook for US GDP growth on the rise; declining in euro area, Japan and China

There are still 1.4 job openings for every unemployed person in the US

US PCE inflation over the past six months has slowed to the Fed's 2% target

FOMC think rate hikes are done and looks for 75bps of decline in 2024

Weaker economic data surprises pushing down US interest rates

Recent disinflation has been widespread across Europe and North America

Recent decline in US inflation expectations helping to lower interest rates

China is losing its luster as foreign direct investment heads out

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

New York

London

Singapore

Tokyo

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

240517f5.jpg

240517g5.jpg

The U.S. Leading Economic Index fell 0.6% (-5.4% y/y) during April following an unrevised 0.3% March decline, according to a report by The Conference Board. These two changes followed a 0.2% February improvement. A 0.3% April shortfall had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Five of ten components contributed negatively to the overall index in April including the ISM new orders index, building permits, stock prices, the spread between the 10-year Treasury and the Fed funds rate, as well as consumer expectations for business/economic conditions. Initial claims for unemployment insurance and the leading credit index contributed positively. New orders for capital goods and new orders for consumer goods made minimal positive contributions to the index change while the length of the average workweek had no effect on the leading index change.

A 0.2% April increase in the Coincident Economic Index followed a 0.2% March gain, revised from 0.3%. These gains came after a 0.3% February rise. Three of the four components made positive contributions to the coincident index in April, including the changes in personal income less transfers, nonagricultural payroll employment and real manufacturing & trade sales. The change in industrial production had no effect on the coincident indicators.

The Lagging Economic Index rose 0.4% (1.4% y/y) after unrevised stability in March and a 0.2% February increase. Three of the index’s seven components made positive contributions last month including the average duration of unemployment, commercial & industrial loans outstanding and the ratio of consumer credit to income. The six-month change in unit labor costs made a minimally negative contribution while the six-month change in the services CPI, banks’ prime rate and the ratio of business inventories-to-sales were unchanged.

The ratio of the coincident index to the lagging index is also viewed as a leading indicator of economic activity. This measure fell 0.2% in April, following two straight monthly increases. It was 0.8% below its most recent peak in December of last year.

The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's **BCI** database; the components are available there, and most are also in **USECON**. The expectations are in the **AS1REPNA** database. Visit the Conference Board's [website](https://www.conference-board.org/us/) for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.



240517h5.jpg

240517i5.jpg

- Leading index decline is largest in six months.
- Coincident Indicators continue to increase moderately.
- Lagging index strengthens after holding steady.


U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Fall Sharply in April

Robert Brusca

240517e.jpg

**EMU Inflation Trends Offer Hope and Hype**- Inflation in the European Monetary Union rose by 0.2% month-to-month in April, the same as in March. Core inflation, however, picked up, rising by 0.4% but that was after being flat in March. The sequential growth rates from 12-months to six-months to three-months show the headline inflation rate at 2.4% over 12-months falling to 2% over 6-months, then rising to a 3% annual rate over three-months. The core rate for the monetary union rose 2.9% over 12-months at a 2.7% annual rate over six-months, it steps up to a 2.8% annual rate over three-months. Headline inflation is resisting moving down to the 2% level consistently while core inflation appears to be stuck just short of 3%. Whether these trends are good enough depends on whether the ECB sees itself implementing precision-guided policy or playing horseshoes and hand grenades.

**Headline Inflation: four largest EMU members**
Statistics for the largest four members of the monetary union show inflation worse in April on balance than for the monetary union as a whole. German inflation rose by 0.8% in April, in France it rose by 0.7%, in Spain at rose by 0.5%, while in Italy it rose by 0.3%. These are month-to-month gains. However, these figures followed either flat or declining inflation (price-) performance in March for each of these four countries. The progression of inflation for Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, however, still shows inflation resisting a consistent move down to 2%. German inflation runs at 2.6% over 12-months steps up to 2.7% over 6-months and reaches a 2.9% annual rate over 3-months. France’s 12-month inflation of 2.4% steps down to 2.2% over 6-months, then rises to a 3.2% annual rate over 3-months. In Italy, headline inflation is 1.1% over 12-months, similarly at a 1% annual rate over 6-months, then rises to a 1.7% annual rate over 3-months. Spain's inflation falls from 3.6% over 12-months to 3.2% over 6-months to 2.3% over 3-months- finally a European Monetary Union large country member with persistently decelerating inflation! On balance Italian inflation over 3-months is under the target that the ECB has for the monetary union as a whole, Spain’s inflation is transitioning from 12-months to 6-months to 3-months down close to the 2% mark, while Germany and France continue to show stubbornly too-high results for their headline inflation rates. All-in-all, that is not a great background to support a rate cut.

**Core inflation and its trends offer hope**
Core inflation rates produce much more beneficial results. Still, in April month-to-month core inflation increases are generally excessive for these four members. But that follows declining inflation – falling prices- for core rates in March. Germany is an exception to this pattern, but it still follows the rule of improvement because its inflation progress is flipped between the two months. Looking at sequential growth rates for core inflation or ex-energy inflation for these large country members, we find that inflation is persistently decelerating from 12-months to 6-months to 3-months for all of them except for France. France shows a pickup in inflation over 3-months compared to 6-months as core inflation rises to a 3-month rate of 2.9% after posting a 2.1% pace over 6-months. The 3-month pace for inflation x-energy for Germany is 2.1%, the core for Italy is at 1.7%, and the core for Spain is at 1.8%. All three-monthly core rates are at the doorstep or within the ECB's target range for headline EMU inflation. France is the exception. The 12-month core inflation rates are all above target but show signs of coming into line; German and French year-over-year inflation rates decline in April compared to March the Italian rate is unchanged year-over-year at 2.3% on the monthly comparison, while only Spain has an acceleration compared to a month ago and that's to a 3.3% rise from 3.1% in March.

**Is it good enough?**
The speed of inflation’s drop- Core inflation rates would seem to build a good enough base for the ECB to move ahead with rate cuts if it decides it wants to go that way. If it wants to be surer and clearer about reducing inflation it will pay more attention to the headline rates that are excessive- especially since no inflation metric is falling particularly fast anymore. The risk over ‘overshooting’ on the downside seems remote. Oil prices as measured by Brent in euros rose by 4.3% month-to-month in April after rising 1.6% in March. However, year-over-year Brent prices are down by 3.3%, so the impulse from oil is mixed across tenors. 

ECB credibility- A different view of reality looks at ECB inflation performance over five-years and finds all the metrics quite unacceptable. Over the last five years the compounded inflation rate for the monetary union is 3.7% and for the core it's 2.8%. For Germany it's 4.1%, for France it's 3.3%, and for Italy and Spain it's 3.4%. The core or X energy inflation rates do not behave much better, Germany is at 3.3% over five years on its core measure, France at 2.7%, Spain at 3%, and Italy at 2.5%. If the ECB is concerned about its credibility, then it's going to want to make sure that it gets inflation down inside of its target soon because the five-year compound inflation rates are so far over their target that clearly a central bank that claims to target 2% inflation cannot look at that five-year record and consider policies to have been a success. 

**Driving the road ahead**- Looking ahead it's very possible that inflation is on a downtrend and that policy is moving inflation in the right direction; the question remains concerns the certainty of that conclusion and the question ‘is inflation moving down fast enough?’  The ECB is going to have to measure the impact on its credibility against its desire to hit its inflation target in the short run and pay some attention to the effect that policy has on economic growth rates in the monetary union. On that score, unemployment rates throughout the European Monetary Union are still extremely low in historic comparisons… but, there has been a new sensitivity across central banks globally as they try to reduce their inflation rates ‘to target levels’ without having much impact on the unemployment rates at all - even though unemployment rates are in many places near some version of historic lows. Time will tell whether this sort of prevarication in inflation fighting that coddles the unemployment rate that is already so low is wise or has turned out to be foolhardy. 


240517.jpg

Europe

EMU Inflation Trends Offer Hope and Hype- Inflation in the European Monetary Union rose by 0.2% month-to-month in April, the same as in March. Core inflation, however, picked up, rising by 0.4% but that was after being flat in March. The sequential growth rates from 12-months to six-months to three-months show the headline inflation rate at 2.4% over 12-months falling to 2% over 6-months, then rising to a 3% annual rate over three-months. The core rate for the monetary union rose 2.9% over 12-months at a 2.7% annual rate over six-months, it steps up to a 2.8% annual rate over three-months. Headline inflation is resisting moving down to the 2% level consistently while core inflation appears to be stuck just short of 3%. Whether these trends are good enough depends on whether the ECB sees itself implementing precision-guided policy or playing horseshoes and hand grenades.

EMU Inflation Holds the line 2% Beckons

240516f4.jpg

240516g4.jpg

Total housing starts increased 5.7% (-0.6% y/y) during April to 1.360 million units (SAAR) after falling 16.8% in March to 1.287 million units, revised from 1.321 million. Starts in February rose a little-revised 12.4% to 1.546 million units. Starts remained 24.6% below the most recent peak of 1.803 million in April 2022. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 1.420 million starts in April.

Housing starts by type were mixed last month. Starts of single-family units eased 0.4% (+17.7% y/y) to 1.031 million after declining 8.7% in March to 1.035 million, revised from 1.022 million. They reached a high of 1.286 units in December 2020. Multi-family starts increased 30.6% (-33.1% y/y) in April to 329,000 after falling 38.8% to 252,000 in March, revised from 299,000. They reached a high of 624,000 units in November 2022.

Regional activity was mixed in April. In the Northeast, the level of starts fell 22.6% (-43.8% y/y) to 72,000 units after declining 21.8% in March and 10.5% in February. Starts in the Midwest rose 19.1% (3.4% y/y) to 181,000 following a 36.4% March decline. Starts in the South improved 10.1% (4.9% y/y) to 799,000 after a 15.9% March decline. In the West, starts fell 2.5% (+1.7% y/y) to 308,000 after declining in each of the prior three months.

Building permits declined 3.0% (-2.0% y/y) in April 1.440 million units after falling 5.0% to 1.485 million in March, revised from 1.458 million. It was the lowest level of permits since December 2022. Single-family permits eased 0.8% (+11.4% y/y) to 976,000 in April following a 4.2% March decline and a 0.4% February slip. Multi-family permits weakened 7.4% (-21.9% y/y) to 464,000, after falling 6.5% in March.

The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.



240516h4.jpg

240516i4.jpg

- Single-family starts decline but multi-family surge.
- Starts are mixed throughout the country.
- Building permits fall to lowest level in over one year.


U.S. Housing Starts Rise Modestly in April; Building Permits Fall

Sandy Batten

240516r2.jpg

240516s2.jpg

Total industrial production was unchanged in April from March and 0.4% lower than a year ago. The previously released 0.4% rise in March was revised down to a meager 0.1% monthly gain. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.1% increase in production last month. Manufacturing production slumped 0.3% m/m (-0.5% y/y) after a downwardly revised 0.2% monthly gain in March (initially reported as 0.5%). 

Mining activity declined for the third time in the past four months, falling 0.6% (-1.3% /y) following an upwardly revised 1.1% m/m decline in March (previously -1.4% m/m). Utilities output was the only positive part of industrial activity in April, rising 2.8% m/m (+2.3% y/y) on top of a downwardly revised 1.6% monthly gain in March (previously 2.0% m/m).

Amid the monthly volatility, manufacturing output has been relatively flat over the past nine months. In fact, the index level in April was 99.4, exactly the same as in August 2023. The manufacturing sector has been one of the most adversely affected by the Fed’s interest rate hikes. Since April 2022 (just after the Fed initiated it rate hikes in March 2022), manufacturing output has fallen 1.4%. Within the manufacturing sector in April, durable goods production fell 0.5% m/m, its first monthly decline in three months, led by a 2.0% m/m decline in motor vehicle production and a 1.9% m/m drop in the production of electrical equipment and appliances. Production of nondurable goods edged down 0.1% m/m in April following a 0.2% monthly increase in March. Production of selected high-technology industries increased 1.0% m/m. By contrast, petroleum and coal products output slumped 4.4%m/m, the first monthly decline in three months.

Manufacturing output excluding motor vehicles slipped 01% m/m in April after being unchanged in March. Manufacturing excluding selected high-tech industries fell 0.3% m/m in April versus a 0.1% monthly gain in March. Manufacturing output excluding both selected high-tech industries and motor vehicles decreased 0.2% m/m, its sixth monthly decline in the past seven months. Production of consumer goods inched up 0.1% m/m in April following a 0.5% monthly gain in March. Output of business equipment fell 0.5% m/m on top of a 0.2% monthly decline in March. 

Production of construction supplies fell 1.0% m/m in April, the sixth monthly decline in the past seven months. Materials output edged up 0.1% m/m in April, just offsetting a 0.1% m/m decline in March.

Total capacity utilization slipped to 78.4% in April from a slightly upward revised 78.5% in March (previously 78.4%). The April reading was exactly as expected by the Actions Economics Forecast Survey. The capacity utilization rate for manufacturing fell significantly to 76.9% from 77.2%. By contrast, the capacity rate for utilities rose to 71.0 from 69.2.

Industrial production and capacity data are in Haver’s **USECON** database. Additional detail on production and capacity utilization can be found in the **IP** database. The expectations figures come from the **AS1REPNA** database.



240516t2.jpg

240516u2.jpg

- IP was unchanged in April with manufacturing falling 0.3% m/m
- Manufacturing decline led by 2.0% m/m drop in motor vehicle output
- Mining fell for the third month of the past four
- Capacity utilization slipped to 78.4%


U.S. Industrial Production Unchanged in April

240516j5.jpg

240516k5.jpg

Import prices for all goods rose 0.9% (NSA) in April after a 0.6% March gain, revised from 0.4%, and a 0.2% February increase, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. A 0.2% April rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The y/y change of 1.1% followed 12-month price declines all through 2023. 

Export prices increased 0.5% in April following a 0.1% March uptick, revised from 0.3%, and a minimally revised 0.7% February rise. A 0.2% price gain had been expected. These gains also followed a 0.7% January increase. The 1.0% y/y decline compared to an 11.8% y/y drop in June of last year. 

The monthly rise in April import prices was led by a 2.9% increase (5.2% y/y) in imported petroleum prices after they surged 6.7% in March. The April increase was the fourth consecutive monthly gain. The increase in imported petroleum costs was accompanied by a 9.2% decline in natural gas prices, off 42.5% y/y. Nonfuel import prices rose 0.7% (0.9% y/y) after a 0.2% March increase. Import prices for foods, feeds & beverages strengthened 1.7% (6.8% y/y), up for the fourth consecutive month. Motor vehicle & parts prices increased 0.3% (2.6% y/y) after a 0.2% rise. Capital goods prices edged 0.1% higher (-0.1% y/y) after a 0.2% decline while nonauto consumer goods prices also rose 0.1% (0.5% y/y) after falling 0.3% in March. 

The increase in April export prices included a 0.9% decline (-10.2% y/y) in agricultural export prices, which added to a 1.3% March drop . Nonagricultural export prices rose 0.7% (0.1% y/y), the fourth straight monthly gain. Export prices of industrial supplies & materials rose 1.0% (-1.7% y/y), the fourth straight month of firm gain. Automotive vehicles & parts export prices strengthened 0.8% (4.0% y/y) after easing 0.1% in March. Capital goods prices rose 0.4% (1.8% y/y) after edging 0.1% higher. A 0.1% uptick (-1.3% y/y) in nonauto consumer goods prices followed a 0.4% March rise. Foods, feeds & beverage prices were off 0.7% last month (-10.6% y/y) after falling 1.6% in March. 

The import and export price series can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures are available in the **USINT** database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database. 


240516l5.jpg

240516m5.jpg

- Import prices rise for fourth consecutive month.
- Excluding fuels, import prices edge up for sixth straight month.
- Export price gain improves. 


Economy in Brief: June 2002

Jump to: