Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020417a.jpg" width="353">
The US foreign trade deficit rose more than expected in February. January&#39;s deficit was revised slightly shallower, due to raised exports, from $28.5B reported last month . 
The trade deficit in 1Q so far averaged $29.9B versus $27.6B in 4Q. That degree of deterioration would sap one quarter of a percentage point from 1Q GDP growth if sustained. 
Imports of nonauto capital goods were strong for the second consecutive month as were imports of nonauto consumer goods. Imports of auto products rose 10.5% to the highest level since November 2000.
Imports of industrial supplies and materials fell 4.4% as the value of petroleum imports fell 17%. The price per barrel of crude oil rose 1.5% to $16.56 but the per day quantity of crude oil consumed fell 10.4% (-3.3% y/y).
Exports rose meaningfully for the first month since October due to strong gains in autos and food. Exports of capital goods fell for the second month in three and exports of nonauto consumer goods rose a modest 0.5% after a 5.2% January drop.
The Web site below contains new research from the Federal Reserve suggesting that US net international debt is smaller than official figures suggest.<a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2002/722/ifdp722.pdf">http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2002/722/ifdp722.pdf</a>

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EE/@EE03/@EE03.HTM">Foreign Trade</a></th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Jan</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Trade Deficit</td>
<td>$31.5B</td>
<td>$28.2B</td>
<td>$28.8B(2/01)</td>
<td>$347.5B</td>
<td>$375.7B</td>
<td>$261.8B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Exports - Goods &amp; Services</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>-12.2%</td>
<td>-5.7%</td>
<td>11.3%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Imports - Goods &amp; Services</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>-7.0%</td>
<td>-6.2%</td>
<td>18.2%</td>
<td>10.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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The US foreign trade deficit rose more than expected in February. January's deficit was revised slightly shallower, due to raised exports, from $28.5B reported last month . The trade deficit in 1Q so far averaged $29.9B versus $27.6B [...]

Trade Deficit Deepened With Improved US Economy

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020416b.jpg" width="353">
Consumer prices rose less than expected last month. Core inflation also rose less than Consensus expectations for a 0.2% gain.
As expected, energy prices were strong led by an 8.0% gain in gasoline prices and a 1.7% rise in fuel oil prices. Piped gas and electricity prices rose just 0.2% (-8.1% y/y), only the third monthly increase in fifteen months.
Core inflation was quite tame due to another decline in consumer goods prices. Tobacco prices, down 3.5%, about completely reversed the rise the prior month. Home furnishings prices were unchanged following two months down. New vehicle prices fell for the third consecutive month. Apparel prices rose a strong 1.2% but remained down 3.1% y/y.
Services prices less energy also rose just modestly. Shelter prices gained 0.1%, the weakest increase since September but medical care services rose 0.4% (4.7% y/y). Public transportation prices fell for the second consecutive month. 

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E801/@E80101/@E80101.HTM">Consumer Price Index</a></th>
<th scope="col">Mar</th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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</thead>
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<td class="firstcol">Total&nbsp;</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Total less Food &amp; Energy</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Goods less Food &amp; Energy</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Services less Energy</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Energy</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>-10.5%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>16.9%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Food &amp; Beverages</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
March Housing Starts Down, 1Q02 Strong 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> April 16, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020416c.jpg" width="353">
Housing starts fell about as expected last month. The surge in February was revised up slightly due to a raised estimate for single family starts. 
Single-family starts fell 11.4%, but for the quarter rose a sharp 8.9% versus 4Q01.
Multi-family starts rose 8.9%, recouping some of the sharp decline the prior month.
Starts fell in each of the country&#39;s regions except for a 15.5% surge in the Northeast.
Building permits fell sharply following four months of strong gain.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E901/@E90101/@E90101.HTM">Housing Starts (000s, AR)</a></th>
<th scope="col">Mar</th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>1,646</td>
<td>1,785</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>1,608</td>
<td>1,575</td>
<td>1,647</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Single Family</td>
<td>1,303</td>
<td>1,470</td>
<td>7.9%</td>
<td>1,276</td>
<td>1,233</td>
<td>1,306</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Multi Family</td>
<td>343</td>
<td>315</td>
<td>-10.7%</td>
<td>332</td>
<td>342</td>
<td>341</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Industrial Production Rose More Than Expected 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> April 16, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020416d.jpg" width="353">
Industrial production rose in March for the third month in a row led by a 0.8% gain in factory sector output, the strongest monthly increase since March 2000. February figures were little revised. Production rose 2.5% (AR) versus 4Q.
Excluding high tech, production rose 0.7% following a 0.2% February gain and a 0.4% January rise.
Output of appliances/furniture/carpeting rose a strong 1.3% following a 2.7% February gain. Business equipment rose just 0.1%, held back by a sharp drop in transportation equipment. Output of info processing equipment, up 1.1%, rose for the third straight month.
Capacity utilization rose for the third month. Capacity has increased just 0.1% monthly since March of last year.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EA/@EA.HTM">Production &amp; Capacity</a></th>
<th scope="col">Mar</th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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<td class="firstcol">Industrial Production</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>-2.9%</td>
<td>-3.7%</td>
<td>4.5%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Capacity Utilization</td>
<td>75.4%</td>
<td>74.9%</td>
<td>78.5%(3/01)</td>
<td>76.8%</td>
<td>81.8%</td>
<td>81.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Weekly Chain Store Sales Fall 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> April 16, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020416a.jpg" width="353">
Chain store sales fell 0.7% in the first full week of April. Early April sales are 1.0% below the March average.
Weakness in April sales is supported by the Redbook sales figures where, through the prior week, same store sales gains slowed to 3.3% from 4.7% in March.
During the last ten years there has been a 20% correlation between the monthly percent change in chain store sales and the change in consumer confidence.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">BTM-UBSW (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">4/13/02</th>
<th scope="col">4/06/02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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</thead>
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<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>400.8</td>
<td>403.7</td>
<td>5.0%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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Consumer prices rose less than expected last month. Core inflation also rose less than Consensus expectations for a 0.2% gain. As expected, energy prices were strong led by an 8.0% gain in gasoline prices and a 1.7% rise in fuel oil [...]

Consumer Prices Up Less Than Expected

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020415a.jpg" width="353">
Total business inventories fell in February about as expected. The previously reported rise in January inventories was revised to a slight decline as a result of lowered figures in the nonauto retail, wholesale and factory sectors.
Nonauto retail inventories, the new news in today&#39;s report, fell due to a 2.2% (-7.2% y/y) decline in apparel inventories. Inventories in the retail furniture sector, where demand has been strong, rose for the fifth consecutive month. 
Inventories of general merchandise also rose (-2.4% y/y) following three months of sharp decline.
Overall business sales fell 0.9%(-2.9% y/y), reversing a January increase.
The inventory-to-sales ratio rose slightly to 1.38 from a downwardly revised January, but remained below 1.42 for all of last year.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED06/@ED0601/@ED0601.HTM">Business Inventories</a></th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Jan</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-6.0%</td>
<td>-6.0%</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
<td>5.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Retail</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>-2.8%</td>
<td>-4.7%</td>
<td>6.8%</td>
<td>7.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Retail excl. Autos</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>-1.9%</td>
<td>-1.8%</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Wholesale</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>-5.8%</td>
<td>-5.3%</td>
<td>7.1%</td>
<td>6.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Manufacturing</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>-8.8%</td>
<td>-7.5%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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Total business inventories fell in February about as expected. The previously reported rise in January inventories was revised to a slight decline as a result of lowered figures in the nonauto retail, wholesale and factory sectors. [...]

Business Inventories Continue Falling

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020412b.jpg" width="353">
Finished producer prices rose more than expected last month due to a 5.5% surge in energy prices. Food prices rose 0.6%, the third strong monthly increase in a row. Core finished goods prices rose as expected.
Unadjusted gasoline prices jumped 18.6% and fuel oil prices rose 15.3%. Natural gas prices fell for the second month this year and are down 33.5% since the peak in January 2001. 
Core finished consumer goods prices rose 0.2% (0.7% y/y) following two months of moderate decline. Capital goods prices rose 0.1% (-0.1% y/y) for the second month in a row. 
Intermediate goods prices popped due to higher energy prices. Core intermediate prices rose for the first time since last March. 
Crude goods prices also rose due to higher energy prices, but core crude prices fell reflecting a leveling off of the recent rebound in commodity prices.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E802/@E80201/@E80201.HTM">Producer Price Index</a></th>
<th scope="col">Mar</th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Finished Goods</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>0.2 %</td>
<td>-1.6%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Core</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Intermediate Goods</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-3.4%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Core</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>-1.7%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Crude Goods</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>-22.7%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>22.8%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Core</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>-6.6%</td>
<td>-10.0%</td>
<td>7.3%</td>
<td>-4.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Retail Sales Again Up Less than Expected 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> April 12, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020412a.jpg" width="353">
Total retail sales rose modestly last month following a similar gain in February that was revised down slightly. Sales excluding autos rose as expected but the February gain was revised down slightly. 
Higher gasoline prices boosted sales at gasoline service stations by 3.8%. Excluding gasoline, nonauto retail sales rose 0.1% for the second month in a row.
Sales of furniture, home furnishings and electronics rose 0.1% and are up 7.6% during the last six months. 
Sales at clothing and accessory stores fell slightly but are up 10.4% during the last six months.
Sales at general merchandise stores fell and are up 5.0% since September.
Unit sales of domestic and imported light vehicles fell 1.4% in March to 16.44M units (SAAR). 

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Mar</th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
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<td class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/usecon/@ED/@ED04/@ED0401/@ED0401.HTM">Retail Sales &amp; Food Services</a></td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td>7.6%</td>
<td>8.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Excluding Autos</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>8.0%</td>
<td>7.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Consumer Sentiment Lower 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> April 12, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020412c.jpg" width="353">
The preliminary April reading of Consumer Sentiment by the University of Michigan fell unexpectedly versus March, probably hurt by violence in the Mideast and lower stock prices. 
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.
During the past five years there has been a 37% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the 3-month % change in real PCE.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF14/@EF1402/@EF1402.HTM">Univ. of Michigan</a></th>
<th scope="col">Mid-April</th>
<th scope="col">Mar</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Consumer Sentiment</td>
<td>94.4</td>
<td>95.7</td>
<td>6.8%</td>
<td>89.2</td>
<td>107.6</td>
<td>105.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Finished producer prices rose more than expected last month due to a 5.5% surge in energy prices. Food prices rose 0.6%, the third strong monthly increase in a row. Core finished goods prices rose as expected. Unadjusted gasoline [...]

Producer Prices Up More Than Expected

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020411a.jpg" width="353">
Prices for imported commodities rose more than expected last month. Consensus estimates were for a 0.5% gain. February figures were unrevised.
Petroleum import prices surged by the most for any one month since early 1999, to the highest level since September of last year.
Nonpetroleum import prices were unchanged and remained 11.3% below the peak set in 1995. Prices for capital goods, nonauto consumer goods and autos fell. Imported food prices rose slightly.
Export prices rose for the first time since January 2001 mostly due to higher prices for industrial materials.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E807/@E807.HTM">Import/Export Prices (NSA)</a></th>
<th scope="col">Mar</th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Import - All Commodities</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-5.7%</td>
<td>-3.5%</td>
<td>6.5%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Petroleum</td>
<td>15.7%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>-13.6%</td>
<td>-17.2%</td>
<td>66.5%</td>
<td>34.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Nonpetroleum</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>-4.2%</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>-1.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Export - All Commodities</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>-2.4%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Fall 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> April 11, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020411b.jpg" width="353">
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell about as expected from the prior week&#39;s level that was revised up. Claims figures back to 1988 were revised. 
Despite the weekly decline, filings for extended unemployment insurance benefits raised the initial claims figure and suggest a slow rate of rehiring. 
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance again rose sharply in the latest week. The prior week&#39;s level was revised up.
The four-week moving average of claims rose sharply to 433,750, the highest level since mid-December. 
The insured rate of unemployment rose to 2.9%.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">04/06/02</th>
<th scope="col">03/30/02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>438.0</td>
<td>493.0</td>
<td>10.3%</td>
<td>405.8</td>
<td>299.8</td>
<td>297.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>3,779</td>
<td>42.4%</td>
<td>3,021</td>
<td>2,114</td>
<td>2,186</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Prices for imported commodities rose more than expected last month. Consensus estimates were for a 0.5% gain. February figures were unrevised. Petroleum import prices surged by the most for any one month since early 1999, to the [...]

Import Prices Up as Oil Prices Surge

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020410a.jpg" width="353">
Crude oil prices have fallen slightly during the past week, but tensions in the Mideast have raised the spot market price of West Texas Intermediate crude more than 40% since the lows set early this year.
Refined product prices have followed with wholesale gasoline prices up a like amount during the period, but as of February the CPI for energy had yet to increase.
Wholesale heating oil prices have risen a lesser 30% due to the mild winter and the winding down of the heating season.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/daily/@D3/@D306/@D30604/@D30604.HTM">Daily Crude Oil Prices</a></th>
<th scope="col">4/09/02</th>
<th scope="col">3/05/02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil</td>
<td>$25.83</td>
<td>$23.18</td>
<td>-9.3%</td>
<td>$25.97</td>
<td>$30.34</td>
<td>$19.34</td>
</tr>
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Crude oil prices have fallen slightly during the past week, but tensions in the Mideast have raised the spot market price of West Texas Intermediate crude more than 40% since the lows set early this year. Refined product prices have [...]

Crude Oil Prices Surge

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020409a.jpg" width="353">
Chain store sales rose a slight 0.3% last week but it was only the second weekly rise in the last six. April sales began 0.7% below the March average.
The latest week contained the last day of March. The final tally placed sales last month down 0.4% from the February average.
The BTM leading indicator of chain store sales also weakened through March, falling in three of five weeks, notably in the last week.
During the last ten years there has been a 20% correlation between the monthly percent change in chain store sales and the change in consumer confidence.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">BTM-UBSW (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">4/06/02</th>
<th scope="col">3/30/02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>403.7</td>
<td>402.5</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
</tr>
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Chain store sales rose a slight 0.3% last week but it was only the second weekly rise in the last six. April sales began 0.7% below the March average. The latest week contained the last day of March. The final tally placed sales last [...]

Weekly Chain Store Sales Up Slightly

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020408a.jpg" width="353">
Corporate profits in 4Q01 surged by 93.4% (AR) from 3Q, following four successive quarters of sharp decline. 
A sharp spike in the capital consumption adjustment (CCA) was the cause of the profit surge. The spike was a result of recent tax legislation which allowed for retroactive depreciation allowances and the carry back of net operating losses.
Provisions for the immediate write-off of 30% of investments made after 9/11 also swelled the CCA.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"></th>
<th scope="col">4Q01</th>
<th scope="col">3Q01</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Corporate Profits w/ IVA &amp; CCA</td>
<td>$822.0B</td>
<td>$697.0B</td>
<td>-3.0%</td>
<td>-12.5%</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
<td>6.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; IVA</td>
<td>$16.6B</td>
<td>$3.1B</td>
<td>$-7.3B</td>
<td>$2.3B</td>
<td>$-12.4B</td>
<td>$-2.9B</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; CCA</td>
<td>$186.1B</td>
<td>$13.4B</td>
<td>$38.4B</td>
<td>$66.5B</td>
<td>$43.4B</td>
<td>$51.7B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Profits Before Tax</td>
<td>$619.4B</td>
<td>$680.6B</td>
<td>-24.1%</td>
<td>-17.4%</td>
<td>8.9%</td>
<td>7.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Profits After Tax</td>
<td>$425.2B</td>
<td>$475.6B</td>
<td>-24.5%</td>
<td>15.9%</td>
<td>9.7%</td>
<td>8.5%</td>
</tr>
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Corporate profits in 4Q01 surged by 93.4% (AR) from 3Q, following four successive quarters of sharp decline. A sharp spike in the capital consumption adjustment (CCA) was the cause of the profit surge. The spike was a result of recent [...]

Corporate Profits Surged in 4Q

Latest PMIs show US losing momentum while RoW is gaining momentum

Sticky services prices behind sticky overall PCE inflation

Flash April PMIs point to slower growth in the US but a pickup in Europe and Japan

Outlook strengthens for US while it weakens for other major economies

Crude petroleum prices are having a big impact on inflation expectations

Inflation surprising to upside in the US; by contrast to the downside in the euro area

 Gross Domestic Income is catching up with GDP

FOMC expects GDP growth above trend over the next three years

US core CPI inflation has begun to reaccelerate

Fiscal-policy aided factory building in the U.S. provided an unusually large boost to growth last year

US consumers much more optimistic than those in the Euro area and the UK

  Job openings take a step down in 2024

Fed's super core services inflation measure pushing up core rate

Blue Chip forecasters expect significant monetary easing this year except in Japan

Euro area economy stagnating while US grows above trend

Chinese and Japanese equity markets are diverging markedly

Chinese population declines in 2023 for second consecutive year

Outlook for US GDP growth on the rise; declining in euro area, Japan and China

There are still 1.4 job openings for every unemployed person in the US

US PCE inflation over the past six months has slowed to the Fed's 2% target

FOMC think rate hikes are done and looks for 75bps of decline in 2024

Weaker economic data surprises pushing down US interest rates

Recent disinflation has been widespread across Europe and North America

Recent decline in US inflation expectations helping to lower interest rates

China is losing its luster as foreign direct investment heads out

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The U.S. Leading Economic Index fell 0.6% (-5.4% y/y) during April following an unrevised 0.3% March decline, according to a report by The Conference Board. These two changes followed a 0.2% February improvement. A 0.3% April shortfall had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Five of ten components contributed negatively to the overall index in April including the ISM new orders index, building permits, stock prices, the spread between the 10-year Treasury and the Fed funds rate, as well as consumer expectations for business/economic conditions. Initial claims for unemployment insurance and the leading credit index contributed positively. New orders for capital goods and new orders for consumer goods made minimal positive contributions to the index change while the length of the average workweek had no effect on the leading index change.

A 0.2% April increase in the Coincident Economic Index followed a 0.2% March gain, revised from 0.3%. These gains came after a 0.3% February rise. Three of the four components made positive contributions to the coincident index in April, including the changes in personal income less transfers, nonagricultural payroll employment and real manufacturing & trade sales. The change in industrial production had no effect on the coincident indicators.

The Lagging Economic Index rose 0.4% (1.4% y/y) after unrevised stability in March and a 0.2% February increase. Three of the index’s seven components made positive contributions last month including the average duration of unemployment, commercial & industrial loans outstanding and the ratio of consumer credit to income. The six-month change in unit labor costs made a minimally negative contribution while the six-month change in the services CPI, banks’ prime rate and the ratio of business inventories-to-sales were unchanged.

The ratio of the coincident index to the lagging index is also viewed as a leading indicator of economic activity. This measure fell 0.2% in April, following two straight monthly increases. It was 0.8% below its most recent peak in December of last year.

The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's **BCI** database; the components are available there, and most are also in **USECON**. The expectations are in the **AS1REPNA** database. Visit the Conference Board's [website](https://www.conference-board.org/us/) for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.



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- Leading index decline is largest in six months.
- Coincident Indicators continue to increase moderately.
- Lagging index strengthens after holding steady.


U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Fall Sharply in April

Robert Brusca

240517e.jpg

**EMU Inflation Trends Offer Hope and Hype**- Inflation in the European Monetary Union rose by 0.2% month-to-month in April, the same as in March. Core inflation, however, picked up, rising by 0.4% but that was after being flat in March. The sequential growth rates from 12-months to six-months to three-months show the headline inflation rate at 2.4% over 12-months falling to 2% over 6-months, then rising to a 3% annual rate over three-months. The core rate for the monetary union rose 2.9% over 12-months at a 2.7% annual rate over six-months, it steps up to a 2.8% annual rate over three-months. Headline inflation is resisting moving down to the 2% level consistently while core inflation appears to be stuck just short of 3%. Whether these trends are good enough depends on whether the ECB sees itself implementing precision-guided policy or playing horseshoes and hand grenades.

**Headline Inflation: four largest EMU members**
Statistics for the largest four members of the monetary union show inflation worse in April on balance than for the monetary union as a whole. German inflation rose by 0.8% in April, in France it rose by 0.7%, in Spain at rose by 0.5%, while in Italy it rose by 0.3%. These are month-to-month gains. However, these figures followed either flat or declining inflation (price-) performance in March for each of these four countries. The progression of inflation for Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, however, still shows inflation resisting a consistent move down to 2%. German inflation runs at 2.6% over 12-months steps up to 2.7% over 6-months and reaches a 2.9% annual rate over 3-months. France’s 12-month inflation of 2.4% steps down to 2.2% over 6-months, then rises to a 3.2% annual rate over 3-months. In Italy, headline inflation is 1.1% over 12-months, similarly at a 1% annual rate over 6-months, then rises to a 1.7% annual rate over 3-months. Spain's inflation falls from 3.6% over 12-months to 3.2% over 6-months to 2.3% over 3-months- finally a European Monetary Union large country member with persistently decelerating inflation! On balance Italian inflation over 3-months is under the target that the ECB has for the monetary union as a whole, Spain’s inflation is transitioning from 12-months to 6-months to 3-months down close to the 2% mark, while Germany and France continue to show stubbornly too-high results for their headline inflation rates. All-in-all, that is not a great background to support a rate cut.

**Core inflation and its trends offer hope**
Core inflation rates produce much more beneficial results. Still, in April month-to-month core inflation increases are generally excessive for these four members. But that follows declining inflation – falling prices- for core rates in March. Germany is an exception to this pattern, but it still follows the rule of improvement because its inflation progress is flipped between the two months. Looking at sequential growth rates for core inflation or ex-energy inflation for these large country members, we find that inflation is persistently decelerating from 12-months to 6-months to 3-months for all of them except for France. France shows a pickup in inflation over 3-months compared to 6-months as core inflation rises to a 3-month rate of 2.9% after posting a 2.1% pace over 6-months. The 3-month pace for inflation x-energy for Germany is 2.1%, the core for Italy is at 1.7%, and the core for Spain is at 1.8%. All three-monthly core rates are at the doorstep or within the ECB's target range for headline EMU inflation. France is the exception. The 12-month core inflation rates are all above target but show signs of coming into line; German and French year-over-year inflation rates decline in April compared to March the Italian rate is unchanged year-over-year at 2.3% on the monthly comparison, while only Spain has an acceleration compared to a month ago and that's to a 3.3% rise from 3.1% in March.

**Is it good enough?**
The speed of inflation’s drop- Core inflation rates would seem to build a good enough base for the ECB to move ahead with rate cuts if it decides it wants to go that way. If it wants to be surer and clearer about reducing inflation it will pay more attention to the headline rates that are excessive- especially since no inflation metric is falling particularly fast anymore. The risk over ‘overshooting’ on the downside seems remote. Oil prices as measured by Brent in euros rose by 4.3% month-to-month in April after rising 1.6% in March. However, year-over-year Brent prices are down by 3.3%, so the impulse from oil is mixed across tenors. 

ECB credibility- A different view of reality looks at ECB inflation performance over five-years and finds all the metrics quite unacceptable. Over the last five years the compounded inflation rate for the monetary union is 3.7% and for the core it's 2.8%. For Germany it's 4.1%, for France it's 3.3%, and for Italy and Spain it's 3.4%. The core or X energy inflation rates do not behave much better, Germany is at 3.3% over five years on its core measure, France at 2.7%, Spain at 3%, and Italy at 2.5%. If the ECB is concerned about its credibility, then it's going to want to make sure that it gets inflation down inside of its target soon because the five-year compound inflation rates are so far over their target that clearly a central bank that claims to target 2% inflation cannot look at that five-year record and consider policies to have been a success. 

**Driving the road ahead**- Looking ahead it's very possible that inflation is on a downtrend and that policy is moving inflation in the right direction; the question remains concerns the certainty of that conclusion and the question ‘is inflation moving down fast enough?’  The ECB is going to have to measure the impact on its credibility against its desire to hit its inflation target in the short run and pay some attention to the effect that policy has on economic growth rates in the monetary union. On that score, unemployment rates throughout the European Monetary Union are still extremely low in historic comparisons… but, there has been a new sensitivity across central banks globally as they try to reduce their inflation rates ‘to target levels’ without having much impact on the unemployment rates at all - even though unemployment rates are in many places near some version of historic lows. Time will tell whether this sort of prevarication in inflation fighting that coddles the unemployment rate that is already so low is wise or has turned out to be foolhardy. 


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Europe

EMU Inflation Trends Offer Hope and Hype- Inflation in the European Monetary Union rose by 0.2% month-to-month in April, the same as in March. Core inflation, however, picked up, rising by 0.4% but that was after being flat in March. The sequential growth rates from 12-months to six-months to three-months show the headline inflation rate at 2.4% over 12-months falling to 2% over 6-months, then rising to a 3% annual rate over three-months. The core rate for the monetary union rose 2.9% over 12-months at a 2.7% annual rate over six-months, it steps up to a 2.8% annual rate over three-months. Headline inflation is resisting moving down to the 2% level consistently while core inflation appears to be stuck just short of 3%. Whether these trends are good enough depends on whether the ECB sees itself implementing precision-guided policy or playing horseshoes and hand grenades.

EMU Inflation Holds the line 2% Beckons

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Total housing starts increased 5.7% (-0.6% y/y) during April to 1.360 million units (SAAR) after falling 16.8% in March to 1.287 million units, revised from 1.321 million. Starts in February rose a little-revised 12.4% to 1.546 million units. Starts remained 24.6% below the most recent peak of 1.803 million in April 2022. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 1.420 million starts in April.

Housing starts by type were mixed last month. Starts of single-family units eased 0.4% (+17.7% y/y) to 1.031 million after declining 8.7% in March to 1.035 million, revised from 1.022 million. They reached a high of 1.286 units in December 2020. Multi-family starts increased 30.6% (-33.1% y/y) in April to 329,000 after falling 38.8% to 252,000 in March, revised from 299,000. They reached a high of 624,000 units in November 2022.

Regional activity was mixed in April. In the Northeast, the level of starts fell 22.6% (-43.8% y/y) to 72,000 units after declining 21.8% in March and 10.5% in February. Starts in the Midwest rose 19.1% (3.4% y/y) to 181,000 following a 36.4% March decline. Starts in the South improved 10.1% (4.9% y/y) to 799,000 after a 15.9% March decline. In the West, starts fell 2.5% (+1.7% y/y) to 308,000 after declining in each of the prior three months.

Building permits declined 3.0% (-2.0% y/y) in April 1.440 million units after falling 5.0% to 1.485 million in March, revised from 1.458 million. It was the lowest level of permits since December 2022. Single-family permits eased 0.8% (+11.4% y/y) to 976,000 in April following a 4.2% March decline and a 0.4% February slip. Multi-family permits weakened 7.4% (-21.9% y/y) to 464,000, after falling 6.5% in March.

The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.



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- Single-family starts decline but multi-family surge.
- Starts are mixed throughout the country.
- Building permits fall to lowest level in over one year.


U.S. Housing Starts Rise Modestly in April; Building Permits Fall

Sandy Batten

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Total industrial production was unchanged in April from March and 0.4% lower than a year ago. The previously released 0.4% rise in March was revised down to a meager 0.1% monthly gain. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.1% increase in production last month. Manufacturing production slumped 0.3% m/m (-0.5% y/y) after a downwardly revised 0.2% monthly gain in March (initially reported as 0.5%). 

Mining activity declined for the third time in the past four months, falling 0.6% (-1.3% /y) following an upwardly revised 1.1% m/m decline in March (previously -1.4% m/m). Utilities output was the only positive part of industrial activity in April, rising 2.8% m/m (+2.3% y/y) on top of a downwardly revised 1.6% monthly gain in March (previously 2.0% m/m).

Amid the monthly volatility, manufacturing output has been relatively flat over the past nine months. In fact, the index level in April was 99.4, exactly the same as in August 2023. The manufacturing sector has been one of the most adversely affected by the Fed’s interest rate hikes. Since April 2022 (just after the Fed initiated it rate hikes in March 2022), manufacturing output has fallen 1.4%. Within the manufacturing sector in April, durable goods production fell 0.5% m/m, its first monthly decline in three months, led by a 2.0% m/m decline in motor vehicle production and a 1.9% m/m drop in the production of electrical equipment and appliances. Production of nondurable goods edged down 0.1% m/m in April following a 0.2% monthly increase in March. Production of selected high-technology industries increased 1.0% m/m. By contrast, petroleum and coal products output slumped 4.4%m/m, the first monthly decline in three months.

Manufacturing output excluding motor vehicles slipped 01% m/m in April after being unchanged in March. Manufacturing excluding selected high-tech industries fell 0.3% m/m in April versus a 0.1% monthly gain in March. Manufacturing output excluding both selected high-tech industries and motor vehicles decreased 0.2% m/m, its sixth monthly decline in the past seven months. Production of consumer goods inched up 0.1% m/m in April following a 0.5% monthly gain in March. Output of business equipment fell 0.5% m/m on top of a 0.2% monthly decline in March. 

Production of construction supplies fell 1.0% m/m in April, the sixth monthly decline in the past seven months. Materials output edged up 0.1% m/m in April, just offsetting a 0.1% m/m decline in March.

Total capacity utilization slipped to 78.4% in April from a slightly upward revised 78.5% in March (previously 78.4%). The April reading was exactly as expected by the Actions Economics Forecast Survey. The capacity utilization rate for manufacturing fell significantly to 76.9% from 77.2%. By contrast, the capacity rate for utilities rose to 71.0 from 69.2.

Industrial production and capacity data are in Haver’s **USECON** database. Additional detail on production and capacity utilization can be found in the **IP** database. The expectations figures come from the **AS1REPNA** database.



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- IP was unchanged in April with manufacturing falling 0.3% m/m
- Manufacturing decline led by 2.0% m/m drop in motor vehicle output
- Mining fell for the third month of the past four
- Capacity utilization slipped to 78.4%


U.S. Industrial Production Unchanged in April

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Import prices for all goods rose 0.9% (NSA) in April after a 0.6% March gain, revised from 0.4%, and a 0.2% February increase, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. A 0.2% April rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The y/y change of 1.1% followed 12-month price declines all through 2023. 

Export prices increased 0.5% in April following a 0.1% March uptick, revised from 0.3%, and a minimally revised 0.7% February rise. A 0.2% price gain had been expected. These gains also followed a 0.7% January increase. The 1.0% y/y decline compared to an 11.8% y/y drop in June of last year. 

The monthly rise in April import prices was led by a 2.9% increase (5.2% y/y) in imported petroleum prices after they surged 6.7% in March. The April increase was the fourth consecutive monthly gain. The increase in imported petroleum costs was accompanied by a 9.2% decline in natural gas prices, off 42.5% y/y. Nonfuel import prices rose 0.7% (0.9% y/y) after a 0.2% March increase. Import prices for foods, feeds & beverages strengthened 1.7% (6.8% y/y), up for the fourth consecutive month. Motor vehicle & parts prices increased 0.3% (2.6% y/y) after a 0.2% rise. Capital goods prices edged 0.1% higher (-0.1% y/y) after a 0.2% decline while nonauto consumer goods prices also rose 0.1% (0.5% y/y) after falling 0.3% in March. 

The increase in April export prices included a 0.9% decline (-10.2% y/y) in agricultural export prices, which added to a 1.3% March drop . Nonagricultural export prices rose 0.7% (0.1% y/y), the fourth straight monthly gain. Export prices of industrial supplies & materials rose 1.0% (-1.7% y/y), the fourth straight month of firm gain. Automotive vehicles & parts export prices strengthened 0.8% (4.0% y/y) after easing 0.1% in March. Capital goods prices rose 0.4% (1.8% y/y) after edging 0.1% higher. A 0.1% uptick (-1.3% y/y) in nonauto consumer goods prices followed a 0.4% March rise. Foods, feeds & beverage prices were off 0.7% last month (-10.6% y/y) after falling 1.6% in March. 

The import and export price series can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures are available in the **USINT** database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database. 


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- Import prices rise for fourth consecutive month.
- Excluding fuels, import prices edge up for sixth straight month.
- Export price gain improves. 


Economy in Brief: April 2002

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