Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020417a.jpg" width="353">
The US foreign trade deficit rose more than expected in February. January&#39;s deficit was revised slightly shallower, due to raised exports, from $28.5B reported last month . 
The trade deficit in 1Q so far averaged $29.9B versus $27.6B in 4Q. That degree of deterioration would sap one quarter of a percentage point from 1Q GDP growth if sustained. 
Imports of nonauto capital goods were strong for the second consecutive month as were imports of nonauto consumer goods. Imports of auto products rose 10.5% to the highest level since November 2000.
Imports of industrial supplies and materials fell 4.4% as the value of petroleum imports fell 17%. The price per barrel of crude oil rose 1.5% to $16.56 but the per day quantity of crude oil consumed fell 10.4% (-3.3% y/y).
Exports rose meaningfully for the first month since October due to strong gains in autos and food. Exports of capital goods fell for the second month in three and exports of nonauto consumer goods rose a modest 0.5% after a 5.2% January drop.
The Web site below contains new research from the Federal Reserve suggesting that US net international debt is smaller than official figures suggest.<a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2002/722/ifdp722.pdf">http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2002/722/ifdp722.pdf</a>

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EE/@EE03/@EE03.HTM">Foreign Trade</a></th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Jan</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Trade Deficit</td>
<td>$31.5B</td>
<td>$28.2B</td>
<td>$28.8B(2/01)</td>
<td>$347.5B</td>
<td>$375.7B</td>
<td>$261.8B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Exports - Goods &amp; Services</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>-12.2%</td>
<td>-5.7%</td>
<td>11.3%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Imports - Goods &amp; Services</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>-7.0%</td>
<td>-6.2%</td>
<td>18.2%</td>
<td>10.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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The US foreign trade deficit rose more than expected in February. January's deficit was revised slightly shallower, due to raised exports, from $28.5B reported last month . The trade deficit in 1Q so far averaged $29.9B versus $27.6B [...]

Trade Deficit Deepened With Improved US Economy

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020416b.jpg" width="353">
Consumer prices rose less than expected last month. Core inflation also rose less than Consensus expectations for a 0.2% gain.
As expected, energy prices were strong led by an 8.0% gain in gasoline prices and a 1.7% rise in fuel oil prices. Piped gas and electricity prices rose just 0.2% (-8.1% y/y), only the third monthly increase in fifteen months.
Core inflation was quite tame due to another decline in consumer goods prices. Tobacco prices, down 3.5%, about completely reversed the rise the prior month. Home furnishings prices were unchanged following two months down. New vehicle prices fell for the third consecutive month. Apparel prices rose a strong 1.2% but remained down 3.1% y/y.
Services prices less energy also rose just modestly. Shelter prices gained 0.1%, the weakest increase since September but medical care services rose 0.4% (4.7% y/y). Public transportation prices fell for the second consecutive month. 

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E801/@E80101/@E80101.HTM">Consumer Price Index</a></th>
<th scope="col">Mar</th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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</thead>
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<td class="firstcol">Total&nbsp;</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Total less Food &amp; Energy</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Goods less Food &amp; Energy</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Services less Energy</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Energy</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>-10.5%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>16.9%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Food &amp; Beverages</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
March Housing Starts Down, 1Q02 Strong 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> April 16, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020416c.jpg" width="353">
Housing starts fell about as expected last month. The surge in February was revised up slightly due to a raised estimate for single family starts. 
Single-family starts fell 11.4%, but for the quarter rose a sharp 8.9% versus 4Q01.
Multi-family starts rose 8.9%, recouping some of the sharp decline the prior month.
Starts fell in each of the country&#39;s regions except for a 15.5% surge in the Northeast.
Building permits fell sharply following four months of strong gain.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E901/@E90101/@E90101.HTM">Housing Starts (000s, AR)</a></th>
<th scope="col">Mar</th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>1,646</td>
<td>1,785</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>1,608</td>
<td>1,575</td>
<td>1,647</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Single Family</td>
<td>1,303</td>
<td>1,470</td>
<td>7.9%</td>
<td>1,276</td>
<td>1,233</td>
<td>1,306</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Multi Family</td>
<td>343</td>
<td>315</td>
<td>-10.7%</td>
<td>332</td>
<td>342</td>
<td>341</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Industrial Production Rose More Than Expected 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> April 16, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020416d.jpg" width="353">
Industrial production rose in March for the third month in a row led by a 0.8% gain in factory sector output, the strongest monthly increase since March 2000. February figures were little revised. Production rose 2.5% (AR) versus 4Q.
Excluding high tech, production rose 0.7% following a 0.2% February gain and a 0.4% January rise.
Output of appliances/furniture/carpeting rose a strong 1.3% following a 2.7% February gain. Business equipment rose just 0.1%, held back by a sharp drop in transportation equipment. Output of info processing equipment, up 1.1%, rose for the third straight month.
Capacity utilization rose for the third month. Capacity has increased just 0.1% monthly since March of last year.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EA/@EA.HTM">Production &amp; Capacity</a></th>
<th scope="col">Mar</th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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<td class="firstcol">Industrial Production</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>-2.9%</td>
<td>-3.7%</td>
<td>4.5%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Capacity Utilization</td>
<td>75.4%</td>
<td>74.9%</td>
<td>78.5%(3/01)</td>
<td>76.8%</td>
<td>81.8%</td>
<td>81.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Weekly Chain Store Sales Fall 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> April 16, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020416a.jpg" width="353">
Chain store sales fell 0.7% in the first full week of April. Early April sales are 1.0% below the March average.
Weakness in April sales is supported by the Redbook sales figures where, through the prior week, same store sales gains slowed to 3.3% from 4.7% in March.
During the last ten years there has been a 20% correlation between the monthly percent change in chain store sales and the change in consumer confidence.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">BTM-UBSW (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">4/13/02</th>
<th scope="col">4/06/02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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</thead>
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<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>400.8</td>
<td>403.7</td>
<td>5.0%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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Consumer prices rose less than expected last month. Core inflation also rose less than Consensus expectations for a 0.2% gain. As expected, energy prices were strong led by an 8.0% gain in gasoline prices and a 1.7% rise in fuel oil [...]

Consumer Prices Up Less Than Expected

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020415a.jpg" width="353">
Total business inventories fell in February about as expected. The previously reported rise in January inventories was revised to a slight decline as a result of lowered figures in the nonauto retail, wholesale and factory sectors.
Nonauto retail inventories, the new news in today&#39;s report, fell due to a 2.2% (-7.2% y/y) decline in apparel inventories. Inventories in the retail furniture sector, where demand has been strong, rose for the fifth consecutive month. 
Inventories of general merchandise also rose (-2.4% y/y) following three months of sharp decline.
Overall business sales fell 0.9%(-2.9% y/y), reversing a January increase.
The inventory-to-sales ratio rose slightly to 1.38 from a downwardly revised January, but remained below 1.42 for all of last year.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED06/@ED0601/@ED0601.HTM">Business Inventories</a></th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Jan</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-6.0%</td>
<td>-6.0%</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
<td>5.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Retail</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>-2.8%</td>
<td>-4.7%</td>
<td>6.8%</td>
<td>7.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Retail excl. Autos</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>-1.9%</td>
<td>-1.8%</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Wholesale</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>-5.8%</td>
<td>-5.3%</td>
<td>7.1%</td>
<td>6.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Manufacturing</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>-8.8%</td>
<td>-7.5%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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Total business inventories fell in February about as expected. The previously reported rise in January inventories was revised to a slight decline as a result of lowered figures in the nonauto retail, wholesale and factory sectors. [...]

Business Inventories Continue Falling

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020412b.jpg" width="353">
Finished producer prices rose more than expected last month due to a 5.5% surge in energy prices. Food prices rose 0.6%, the third strong monthly increase in a row. Core finished goods prices rose as expected.
Unadjusted gasoline prices jumped 18.6% and fuel oil prices rose 15.3%. Natural gas prices fell for the second month this year and are down 33.5% since the peak in January 2001. 
Core finished consumer goods prices rose 0.2% (0.7% y/y) following two months of moderate decline. Capital goods prices rose 0.1% (-0.1% y/y) for the second month in a row. 
Intermediate goods prices popped due to higher energy prices. Core intermediate prices rose for the first time since last March. 
Crude goods prices also rose due to higher energy prices, but core crude prices fell reflecting a leveling off of the recent rebound in commodity prices.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E802/@E80201/@E80201.HTM">Producer Price Index</a></th>
<th scope="col">Mar</th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Finished Goods</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>0.2 %</td>
<td>-1.6%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Core</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Intermediate Goods</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-3.4%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Core</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>-1.7%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Crude Goods</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>-22.7%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>22.8%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Core</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>-6.6%</td>
<td>-10.0%</td>
<td>7.3%</td>
<td>-4.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Retail Sales Again Up Less than Expected 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> April 12, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020412a.jpg" width="353">
Total retail sales rose modestly last month following a similar gain in February that was revised down slightly. Sales excluding autos rose as expected but the February gain was revised down slightly. 
Higher gasoline prices boosted sales at gasoline service stations by 3.8%. Excluding gasoline, nonauto retail sales rose 0.1% for the second month in a row.
Sales of furniture, home furnishings and electronics rose 0.1% and are up 7.6% during the last six months. 
Sales at clothing and accessory stores fell slightly but are up 10.4% during the last six months.
Sales at general merchandise stores fell and are up 5.0% since September.
Unit sales of domestic and imported light vehicles fell 1.4% in March to 16.44M units (SAAR). 

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Mar</th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
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<td class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/usecon/@ED/@ED04/@ED0401/@ED0401.HTM">Retail Sales &amp; Food Services</a></td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td>7.6%</td>
<td>8.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Excluding Autos</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>8.0%</td>
<td>7.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Consumer Sentiment Lower 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> April 12, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020412c.jpg" width="353">
The preliminary April reading of Consumer Sentiment by the University of Michigan fell unexpectedly versus March, probably hurt by violence in the Mideast and lower stock prices. 
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.
During the past five years there has been a 37% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the 3-month % change in real PCE.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF14/@EF1402/@EF1402.HTM">Univ. of Michigan</a></th>
<th scope="col">Mid-April</th>
<th scope="col">Mar</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Consumer Sentiment</td>
<td>94.4</td>
<td>95.7</td>
<td>6.8%</td>
<td>89.2</td>
<td>107.6</td>
<td>105.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Finished producer prices rose more than expected last month due to a 5.5% surge in energy prices. Food prices rose 0.6%, the third strong monthly increase in a row. Core finished goods prices rose as expected. Unadjusted gasoline [...]

Producer Prices Up More Than Expected

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020411a.jpg" width="353">
Prices for imported commodities rose more than expected last month. Consensus estimates were for a 0.5% gain. February figures were unrevised.
Petroleum import prices surged by the most for any one month since early 1999, to the highest level since September of last year.
Nonpetroleum import prices were unchanged and remained 11.3% below the peak set in 1995. Prices for capital goods, nonauto consumer goods and autos fell. Imported food prices rose slightly.
Export prices rose for the first time since January 2001 mostly due to higher prices for industrial materials.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E807/@E807.HTM">Import/Export Prices (NSA)</a></th>
<th scope="col">Mar</th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Import - All Commodities</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-5.7%</td>
<td>-3.5%</td>
<td>6.5%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Petroleum</td>
<td>15.7%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>-13.6%</td>
<td>-17.2%</td>
<td>66.5%</td>
<td>34.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Nonpetroleum</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>-4.2%</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>-1.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Export - All Commodities</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>-2.4%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Fall 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> April 11, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020411b.jpg" width="353">
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell about as expected from the prior week&#39;s level that was revised up. Claims figures back to 1988 were revised. 
Despite the weekly decline, filings for extended unemployment insurance benefits raised the initial claims figure and suggest a slow rate of rehiring. 
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance again rose sharply in the latest week. The prior week&#39;s level was revised up.
The four-week moving average of claims rose sharply to 433,750, the highest level since mid-December. 
The insured rate of unemployment rose to 2.9%.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">04/06/02</th>
<th scope="col">03/30/02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>438.0</td>
<td>493.0</td>
<td>10.3%</td>
<td>405.8</td>
<td>299.8</td>
<td>297.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>3,779</td>
<td>42.4%</td>
<td>3,021</td>
<td>2,114</td>
<td>2,186</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Prices for imported commodities rose more than expected last month. Consensus estimates were for a 0.5% gain. February figures were unrevised. Petroleum import prices surged by the most for any one month since early 1999, to the [...]

Import Prices Up as Oil Prices Surge

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020410a.jpg" width="353">
Crude oil prices have fallen slightly during the past week, but tensions in the Mideast have raised the spot market price of West Texas Intermediate crude more than 40% since the lows set early this year.
Refined product prices have followed with wholesale gasoline prices up a like amount during the period, but as of February the CPI for energy had yet to increase.
Wholesale heating oil prices have risen a lesser 30% due to the mild winter and the winding down of the heating season.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/daily/@D3/@D306/@D30604/@D30604.HTM">Daily Crude Oil Prices</a></th>
<th scope="col">4/09/02</th>
<th scope="col">3/05/02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil</td>
<td>$25.83</td>
<td>$23.18</td>
<td>-9.3%</td>
<td>$25.97</td>
<td>$30.34</td>
<td>$19.34</td>
</tr>
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Crude oil prices have fallen slightly during the past week, but tensions in the Mideast have raised the spot market price of West Texas Intermediate crude more than 40% since the lows set early this year. Refined product prices have [...]

Crude Oil Prices Surge

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020409a.jpg" width="353">
Chain store sales rose a slight 0.3% last week but it was only the second weekly rise in the last six. April sales began 0.7% below the March average.
The latest week contained the last day of March. The final tally placed sales last month down 0.4% from the February average.
The BTM leading indicator of chain store sales also weakened through March, falling in three of five weeks, notably in the last week.
During the last ten years there has been a 20% correlation between the monthly percent change in chain store sales and the change in consumer confidence.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">BTM-UBSW (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">4/06/02</th>
<th scope="col">3/30/02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>403.7</td>
<td>402.5</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
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Chain store sales rose a slight 0.3% last week but it was only the second weekly rise in the last six. April sales began 0.7% below the March average. The latest week contained the last day of March. The final tally placed sales last [...]

Weekly Chain Store Sales Up Slightly

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020408a.jpg" width="353">
Corporate profits in 4Q01 surged by 93.4% (AR) from 3Q, following four successive quarters of sharp decline. 
A sharp spike in the capital consumption adjustment (CCA) was the cause of the profit surge. The spike was a result of recent tax legislation which allowed for retroactive depreciation allowances and the carry back of net operating losses.
Provisions for the immediate write-off of 30% of investments made after 9/11 also swelled the CCA.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"></th>
<th scope="col">4Q01</th>
<th scope="col">3Q01</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Corporate Profits w/ IVA &amp; CCA</td>
<td>$822.0B</td>
<td>$697.0B</td>
<td>-3.0%</td>
<td>-12.5%</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
<td>6.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; IVA</td>
<td>$16.6B</td>
<td>$3.1B</td>
<td>$-7.3B</td>
<td>$2.3B</td>
<td>$-12.4B</td>
<td>$-2.9B</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; CCA</td>
<td>$186.1B</td>
<td>$13.4B</td>
<td>$38.4B</td>
<td>$66.5B</td>
<td>$43.4B</td>
<td>$51.7B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Profits Before Tax</td>
<td>$619.4B</td>
<td>$680.6B</td>
<td>-24.1%</td>
<td>-17.4%</td>
<td>8.9%</td>
<td>7.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Profits After Tax</td>
<td>$425.2B</td>
<td>$475.6B</td>
<td>-24.5%</td>
<td>15.9%</td>
<td>9.7%</td>
<td>8.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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</body>
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Corporate profits in 4Q01 surged by 93.4% (AR) from 3Q, following four successive quarters of sharp decline. A sharp spike in the capital consumption adjustment (CCA) was the cause of the profit surge. The spike was a result of recent [...]

Corporate Profits Surged in 4Q

Recent aggressive policy easing in China has given a massive boost to equity prices

FOMC expects much more easing now than in June

US is clear world leader in business capital spending on artificial intelligence

Blue Chip forecasters expect US to lead aggressive policy rate cuts over coming year—apart from Japan

Ratio of job openings to the number unemployed in the US now below pre-pandemic level

U.S. layoffs not showing as much cooling in labor markets as unemployment rate

While goods prices have moderated, service price inflation remains elevated and sticky

Since Jan 2023, BCEI US outlook has improved, worsened for Japan and the euro area

Persistent negative US economic surprises leading to big rate-cut expectations

Germany is Euro area weakling

Flash PMIs show good start to Q3 in US; loss of momentum in the euro area

Chinese economy on downtrend could threaten global economy

Working age population labor force participation near all-time high as retirements increase

Blue Chip forecasters look for widespread policy rate cuts just ahead

Flash June PMIs point to a widespread slowdown apart from the US

Announcement of snap French election is causing concern across Europe

The UK economy’s post-pandemic under-performance relative to its pre-pandemic trend

US Beveridge Curve back to near pre-pandemic levels

Negative economic surprises in the US but positive in Europe, especially the UK

Latest PMIs show US losing momentum while RoW is gaining momentum

Sticky services prices behind sticky overall PCE inflation

Flash April PMIs point to slower growth in the US but a pickup in Europe and Japan

Outlook strengthens for US while it weakens for other major economies

Crude petroleum prices are having a big impact on inflation expectations

Inflation surprising to upside in the US; by contrast to the downside in the euro area

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Nonfarm payrolls increased 254,000 (1.5% y/y) in September after rising 159,000 in August, revised from 142,000, and 144,000 in July, revised from 89,000. Expectations had been for a 150,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The three-month average change of 186,000 is the strongest since May.

Average hourly earnings increased 0.4% last month following a gain of 0.5% in August, revised from 0.4%. The y/y earnings gain edged up to 4.0% from 3.9% in August and 3.6% in July, but remained below the 5.9% high in March 2022. A 0.3% September increase had been expected.

The unemployment rate, measured in the household survey, edged down to 4.1% in September from 4.2% in August. It reached a low of 3.4% in April of last year. An unchanged 4.2% had been expected. Household employment rose 430,000 after increasing 168,000 in July. The labor force increased 150,000 after a 120,000 July gain. The overall unemployment rate, including workers who were marginally attached & working part-time for economic reasons declined to 7.7% from 7.9%.

In the **payroll survey**, private-sector employment increased 223,000 (1.4% y/y) in September after rising 114,000 in August. Construction sector employment increased 25,000 (2.8% y/y) last month after rising 31,000 in August. Factory sector payrolls eased 7,000 (-0.2% y/y) after falling 27,000. Mining & logging sector jobs rose 3,000 (-0.6% y/y) during September after rising 1,000 in each of the prior two months.

Private service-producing employment strengthened 202,000 in September (1.5% y/y) after a 109,000 August rise. Increases varied greatly amongst service sector categories. Private education & health service jobs rose 81,000 (3.8% y/y) after rising 60,000 in August while leisure & hospitality employment rose 78,000 (2.0% y/y) after a 53,000 gain. Professional & business service jobs rose 17,000 (0.4% y/y) after easing 4,000 in both August and July. Within that category, the number of temporary jobs fell 13,800 (-6.0% y/y) and have fallen consistently since a March 2022 high. Trade, transportation & utilities employment gained 13,000 (0.6% y/y) after falling 5,000 while financial activities jobs rose 5,000 in September (0.4% y/y) after improving 10,000 in August. Information sector employment increased 4,000 in last month (-0.2% y/y) after falling 7,000 in August.

Government sector payrolls improved 31,000 in September (2.1% y/y) after increasing 45,000 in August. Local government jobs improved 16,000 (2.0% y/y) after rising 33,000 in August while state government employment rose 13,000 (2.5% y/y) after an 11,000 gain. The number of federal government jobs increased 2,000 (1.7% y/y) following a 1,000 rise.

The 0.4% September rise in private-sector average hourly earnings reflected a 0.5% gain (4.9% y/y) in the goods-producing sector which followed a 0.4% improvement in August. Earnings in construction improved 0.4% (4.6% y/y) while factory sector earnings rose 0.5% (5.1% y/y), following a 0.4% gain. In the private services-sector, earnings rose 0.3% last month (3.7% y/y) after a 0.5% gain. Professional & business service sector earnings strengthened 0.8% (5.0% y/y) after a 0.6% rise. Leisure & hospitality earnings improved 0.2% (4.3% y/y) after rising 0.3%. Financial sector earnings increased 0.2% (4.2% y/y) after a 0.5% gain. Private education & health services earnings improved 0.3% (3.1% y/y) for the fourth straight month. Trade, transportation and utilities pay edged 0.1% higher (2.8% y/y) in September after a 0.4% rise. Information sector earnings declined 0.4% (+3.6% y/y) after strengthening 1.1% in July.

241004C5.jpg

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The length of the average workweek in the private sector eased to 34.2 hours in September after rising in August to 34.3 hours. The workweek in the goods-producing sector of 39.9 hours compared to 39.8 hours in August. The construction sector average workweek lengthened to 39.2 hours from 39.0. The factory sector workweek held steady at 40.0 hours while the average workweek in the private service sector slipped to 33.1 hours. The aggregate weekly hours index in the private sector, a key indicator of production and income, slipped 0.1% in September (+0.9% y/y) after rising 0.3%. The Q3 average increased 0.2% (AR) from Q2’24.

In the **household survey**, the jobless rate fell to 4.1% as employment rose 0.3% and the size of the labor force edged 0.1% higher. The labor force participation rate was 62.7% for the third straight month. The rate for teenagers rebounded to 37.2%, while for individuals aged 20-24, it was little-change at 70.6%. For rate for workers aged 25-54, the rate fell to 83.8% but for workers 55 and over, it held steady at 38.6 hours.

The employment/population ratio for all workers rose to 60.2% in September and has been moving sideways since early last year. It remained below its high of 61.1% in February 2020, just prior to the pandemic.

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Surprising job strength is narrowly based.
- Earnings increase is better-than-expected; August pay growth lifted.
- Jobless rate slips to three-month low.

U.S. Payroll Employment Accelerates in September and Wage Growth Firms; Jobless Rate Edges Lower

Robert Brusca

241004E.jpg

French industrial output rose sharply in August, a gain of 1.6% after declining by 0.2% in July. Output in August was led by consumer goods; nondurable goods output increased 4.2% month-to-month in August while consumer durable goods output increased by 3% month-to-month. Output of capital goods was also strong during the month, with a 1.6% gain, although intermediate goods output continued to be weak, falling by 0.4% in August and dropping for the second month in a row.

Sequentially French output explodes over three months although it's relatively mild mannered over 12 months and over six months. The strength in French output is relatively recent. Manufacturing output gains 0.3% over 12 months; over six months it is falling at a 0.5% annual rate but that transforms into a 31.1% annual rate over three months as output sharply recovered in June and in August.

**Sequential growth for MFG components**
Components find consumer durable goods output falling by 6.3% over 12 months, gaining at a 4% annual rate over six months then rising at a strong 14.9% annual rate over three months showing steady acceleration. Consumer nondurable goods output rises by 5.9% over 12 months; output slows to gain at a 4.3% annual rate over six months then it expands sharply to grow at a 19% annual rate over three months. French capital goods output is up only 0.3% over 12 months, but it then expands at a 1.5% annual rate over six months and gains at a 14.2% annual rate over three months showing steadily accelerating growth on this time sequence. Intermediate goods output falls by 3.4% over 12 months, falls more sharply, at a 6.6% annual rate over six months, then cuts that weakness to only a 0.2% annual rate drop over three months.

**Quarter-to-date**
With two months into the third quarter, manufacturing output is rising at 1.6% annual rate, with consumer nondurable output up at a 7% annual rate and consumer durable goods output up at a 3.8% annual rate. Capital goods output is up at a 4.3% annual rate; intermediate goods output is falling at a 5% annual rate in the quarter-to-date.

During this period when output has been experiencing some mild increases, they have transformed into strong increases over three months. Yet, motor vehicle registrations have been consistently weak. That important big ticket consumer item has not taken off.

241004.jpg

**Manufacturing: IP vs. PMI**
The chart shows that manufacturing output as measured by the IP index has been relatively flat. But output as signaled by the S&P PMI survey has showed building weakness in French manufacturing. The PMI trend to weakness was being arrested early in 2024 but then the incipient rebound turned into more weakness. Just this month there has been some small rebound and stabilization in the MFG PMI.

It's here from the PMI, that data give much more of a sense of French output being weak than we get from looking at the industrial output report itself. French industrial output has been fairly flat, but with a small uptrend in place.

Smoothed year-on-year gains show that French output generally saw year-on-year expansion from early-2022 to May 2024. Since then, output has been more erratic with a deep decline logged in May IP. The sector has subsequently been digging itself back out. This month’s surge in output is continuing evidence of that recovery in progress. We do not get the same sense of weakness from looking at French IP data that we form looking at French PMI data.

France

French IP Ignites for a Month

Andrew Cates

**Policy rate expectations**
Blue Chip panellists continue to forecast that policy rates in most major economies will decline sharply in coming months. The ECB, for example, is expected to lower its key policy rates by around 105 basis points over the next 12 months while the BoE is expected to lower its Bank rate by 125 bps over the same time frame. These forecasts contrast with the US where policy rates are expected to be lowered by 125 basis point between now and this time next year. The BoJ in the meantime continues to remain an outlier in this generic global trend with Japan’s policy rate specifically expected to climb by 45bps over the next 12 months.

241004Z1.jpg

**The US labour market**
Ahead of the payrolls data for September that are due later this week there have been some mixed messages on the state of the US labour market in recent days. September’s ADP report concerning private sector employment, for example, was a little stronger than expected. On the weaker side, the latest Job Openings and Labour Turnover (JOLTS) survey revealed a steep decline in the number of people in the US workforce that have been quitting their jobs, a strong signal that the labour market is loosening. As chart 2 below suggests, that ought to additionally imply weaker wages pressures in the period ahead as well.

241004Z2.jpg

**Geopolitical risks and oil prices**
Soft landing narratives have been aided by evidence suggesting that labour markets are cooling, that wage pressures are ebbing and that broader inflationary pressures are fading. But, as noted above, the escalation of geopolitical turbulence in the Middle East is now challenging these views. A widely watched gauge of geopolitical risks has bolted sharply higher in recent days off the heels of this turbulence, as evidenced in chart 3 below. And energy markets – oil prices in particular – appear to now be responding to this instability as well.

241004Z3.jpg

**The real consumer price of energy versus US productivity growth**
It goes without saying that energy prices exert a powerful influence over the world economy. Aside from headline inflation linkages, high real energy prices have arguably been a key factor that’s kept productivity growth in many major economies muted over the past few years. As chart 4 below indicates, longer-term upswings in US productivity growth have tended to be preceded by weaker real energy prices. Equally, longer-term downswings in productivity have typically followed periods when real energy prices have been rising.

241004Z4.jpg

**Globalisation versus de-globalisation** 
A further disruption of supply chains is also a looming threat to the world economy if the instability in the Middle East were to intensify. In the background to this, and thanks to several additional factors that have undermined world trade in recent years, a de-globalisation of the world economy has been unfolding. That said, latest data from the World Bank suggest we should not get too carried with that de-globalisation narrative. The level of world trade in services, for example, reached a record high in 2023.

241004Z5.jpg

**Indebtedness and interest rates**
There is no doubt that ongoing geopolitical instability, combined with other factors such as heightened protectionism, could accelerate a broader trend toward de-globalization in the coming period. This, along with other structural challenges such as high energy prices and ageing demographics, may be hindering long-term productivity growth. Offsetting factors do exist, most notably the productivity potential of Artificial Intelligence. However, until those offsets fully materialize, many policymakers are likely to again rely on monetary policy tools and other re-leveraging initiatives to boost economic growth to politically acceptable levels. The strong negative correlation between long-term US real interest rates and global indebtedness in chart 6 below highlights how these policy efforts have become central to maintaining economic stability, often at the expense of increasing financial vulnerabilities.

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In recent weeks, financial markets have generally aligned with expectations of a soft landing for the global economy, facilitated by more accommodative policies from central banks (see chart 1). This week’s dataflow have largely reinforced these views (see chart 2) as have the communications from many policymakers. However, the escalation of geopolitical turbulence in the Middle East in recent days is now challenging this narrative. By potentially choking supply chains and raising risk premiums in energy markets, there could be growth and inflation-related consequences for the world economy in the coming weeks (see charts 3). This also serves as a reminder that there are longer-term headwinds that are placing a brake on global growth at present, including high real energy prices (chart 4), de-globalization pressures (chart 5) and lingering debt-related imbalances (see chart 6). And many of these issues could be exacerbated if the turmoil in the Middle East were to intensify.

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Charts of the Week: Geopolitical Scarring

Winnie Tapasanun

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The U.S. ISM Services PMI rose to 54.9 in September, the highest level since February 2023, after a 0.1-point uptick to 51.5 in August, according to today’s report by the Institute for Supply Management, indicating expansion in the services sector for the third straight month, in seven of nine months in 2024, and for the 49th time in 52 months. The September index was up from a four-year-low 48.8 in June, 53.4 in September 2023, and a low of 49.0 in December 2022; however, having remained down from a record-high 67.1 in November 2021. The 12-month average was 51.8, reflecting strong growth in the U.S. services sector. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected 51.7 for September.

Haver Analytics constructs a composite index combining the services index and the manufacturing reading. This index rose to 53.9 in September after a 0.2-point increase to 51.0 in August, showing expansion for fourth time in five months. The latest figure was higher than a four-year-low 48.8 in June, 52.8 in September 2023, and a low of 48.9 in December 2022; nevertheless, having remained well below a record-high 66.3 in November 2021. These series date back to July 1997.

In the latest services survey, the business activity index rebounded to 59.9 in September from 53.3 in August, indicating business activity expanded for the 51st time in 52 months and at the highest level since May. The index was up from its recent low of 49.6 in June and a low of 52.7 in December 2022 but below a record-high 69.5 in November 2021. An increased 30.1% of respondents (NSA) reported higher activity in September while a lessened 8.2% reported an activity decline. The new orders index advanced to 59.4 in September from 53.0 in August, indicating expansion in new orders for the 50th time in 52 months and at the fastest pace since February 2023. The index was up from its recent low of 47.3 in June and a low of 45.0 in December 2022 but down from a record-high 69.5 in October 2021. An increased 30.9% of respondents (NSA) reported higher orders in September while a lessened 10.4% reported a decline. Meanwhile, the supplier deliveries index (NSA) rose to 52.1 in September from 49.6 in August, indicating slower supplier delivery performance after two months in faster territory.

On the labor front, the employment index decreased to 48.1 in September on top of a 0.9-point decline to 50.2 in August, showing employment activity in the services sector contracted after two months of expansion. The latest reading, while above a low of 43.8 in December 2023, was below a high of 54.1 in August 2023 and a high of 58.3 in April 2021. A lessened 13.0% of respondents (NSA) indicated higher employment in September while 14.4% reported a decline.

On the inflation front, the prices index rose to 59.4 in September after a 0.3-point increase to 57.3 in August, indicating prices paid by services organizations for materials and services had risen (i.e., above 50) since June 2017 and at the fastest rate since January’s high of 64.0. The index was up versus its recent low of 53.4 in March and a low of 54.8 in June 2023; however, having remained significantly below a record-high 83.8 in March 2022. An increased 22.7% of respondents (NSA) reported price rises in September while a lessened 6.0% reported price declines.

Additionally, the new export orders index increased to 56.7 in September following a 7.6-point drop to 50.9 in August, indicating new export orders expanded for the 10th time in 11 months at a faster rate. The imports index rebounded to 52.7 in September from 50.3 in August, registering the third consecutive month of expansion after contracting in June and May. The inventories index advanced to 58.1 in September from 52.9 in August, indicating inventories expanded for the second successive month and at the fastest pace since May 2023. The inventory sentiment index fell to 54.0 in September after declining to 54.9 in August, showing continued expansion since May 2023 but at the slowest rising rate since June 2023. The backlog of orders index increased to 48.3 in September after dropping to 43.7 in August, posting the third contraction in four months. These series are not seasonally adjusted and not included in the ISM Services PMI total.

The ISM Services PMI is a composite index consisting of four equally weighted diffusion indexes (25% each): Business Activity, New Orders, Employment, and Supplier Deliveries. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector; below 50 suggests contraction. Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM index that is inversed; a reading above 50 indicates slower deliveries. The ISM figures are available in Haver's **USECON** database, with additional detail in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations figure from Action Economics is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- 54.9 in September vs. 51.5 in August, higher than expected; 3.1 pts. above the 12-month avg. of 51.8.
- Business Activity (59.9, a four-month high), New Orders (59.4, the highest since Feb. ’23), Employment (48.1, the first contraction since June), and Supplier Deliveries (52.1 vs. 49.6).
- Prices Index rises 2.1 pts. to 59.4, the highest since January.

U.S. ISM Services PMI Jumps in September; Highest Level Since February ’23

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New orders for manufactured goods eased 0.2% (+0.9% y/y) during August, after strengthening 4.9% in July, revised from 5.0%, according to the Census Bureau. Orders declined 3.3% in June. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.2% increase in total factory orders. Excluding the transportation sector, orders eased 0.1% (+0.5% y/y) after rising 0.3% in July.

New orders for durable goods were unchanged during August (+1.5% y/y), unrevised from the advance release, and followed a 9.8% July gain. The weakness in durable goods orders reflected a 0.8% easing (+2.5% y/y) in transportation sector orders. This followed a 34.6% jump in July, which was buoyed by higher civilian aircraft orders. Motor vehicle & parts orders eased 0.7% (-1.8% y/y) after a 1.0% decline. Orders for all factory products outside the transportation sector slipped 0.1% (+0.5% y/y) in August following a 0.3% July increase. Elsewhere, primary metals orders rose 0.2%, up 0.1% y/y. Machinery orders gained 0.4% (0.1% y/y), while computer & electronics rose 0.4% (2.8% y/y). Electrical equipment orders rose 2.4% (2.8% y/y), following a 0.8% decline.

Shipments by all manufacturing industries eased 0.5% in August (+1.0% y/y) after rising 0.8% in July. Durable goods shipments fell 0.6% (+1.7% y/y) after two months of roughly 1.1% gain. Transportation product shipments fell 2.0% (+5.0% y/y) after a 3.4% rise. Shipments excluding the transportation sector eased 0.2% (+0.2% y/y) after rising 0.3% in July. Machinery shipments rose 0.3% in August (-0.9% y/y) while computer & equipment shipments eased 0.2% (-0.1% y/y). Electrical equipment & appliance shipments rose 0.4% (+0.7% y/y). Nondurable goods shipments, which equal orders, fell 0.5% (+0.3% y/y) after increasing 0.6% in July. Food product shipments eased 0.1% (+1.3% y/y) while apparel shipments rose 0.4% (-2.4% y/y) after two months of decline. Textile product shipments weakened 1.7% both m/m and y/y after falling 0.3% in July. Paper product shipments rose 0.3% (2.1% y/y), following a 0.8% increase. Petroleum & coal product shipments declined 2.3% (-10.9% y/y) in August, after rising 0.5%. Basic chemical shipments rose 0.3% (5.8% y/y) after a 0.8% July increase.

There are no unfilled orders figures for nondurable goods industries. Unfilled orders for durable goods rose 0.4% (4.1% y/y) in August after a 0.2% rise. Transportation unfilled orders rose 0.5% (6.8% y/y) after increasing 0.3% in July. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders rose 0.2% (-0.4% y/y) after holding steady in July. Unfilled orders for durable goods less transportation have been trending sideways since 2022. Unfilled orders for machinery eased 0.1% (-3.7% y/y) while electrical equipment & appliance backlogs rose 0.4% (-0.0%) after a 0.2% decline.

Inventories of all manufactured products rose 0.1% in August (0.6% y/y) after holding steady in July. Durable goods inventories edged 0.1% higher (1.3% y/y) after holding steady in July. Transportation equipment inventories edged 0.1% higher (4.7% y/y) and inventories less transportation rose 0.2% (-0.4% y/y) after holding steady for five straight months. Nondurable goods inventories rose 0.2% (-0.5% y/y) after remaining unchanged for two months, though petroleum inventories rose 0.8% (-1.9% y/y) in August after easing 0.1% in July.

Manufacturers’ orders and shipments of durable and nondurable goods, along with unfilled orders and inventories, are compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau. They are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics forecast data are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Improved y/y in orders momentum remains in place.
- Shipments weighed down by a decline in nondefense aircraft sales.
- Unfilled orders and inventories rise modestly.

Economy in Brief: April 2002

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