Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| Feb 04 2005

  U.S. Payroll Gain Moderate in January, Jobless Rate Lowest Since 2001

  Non-farm payrolls rose a moderate 146,000 in January following a downwardly revised gain of 133,000 the month prior. Consensus expectations had been for a 200,000 January increase. Benchmark revisions to payrolls beginning in January [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 04 2005

  U.S. Payroll Gain Moderate in January, Jobless Rate Lowest Since 2001

  Non-farm payrolls rose a moderate 146,000 in January following a downwardly revised gain of 133,000 the month prior. Consensus expectations had been for a 200,000 January increase. Benchmark revisions to payrolls beginning in January [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 03 2005

  US Factory Sector Shipments & Orders Surged in 2004

  Shipments from the US factory sector rose 0.9% in December, capping off a year of 10.4% growth which was the strongest in twenty years. Some of that strength is exaggerated by a 38.0% jump in shipments from petroleum refineries, but [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 03 2005

  Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Near Four Year Low

  Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 9,000 to 316,000 last week, reversed the unrevised 7,000 increase during the prior week and landed just above the lowest levels since early 2001. Consensus expectations had been for a [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 03 2005

  ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Fell

  The Business Activity Index for the non-manufacturing sector fell in January to 59.2 following three consecutive months of increase according to the Institute for Supply Management. Consensus expectations had been for less of a [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 03 2005

  U.S. Productivity Growth Slowed Sharply

  Growth in 4Q '04 non-farm labor productivity slowed sharply to 0.8% from 1.8% growth the prior quarter. Consensus expectations had been for 2.0% growth. For the full year, growth of 4.1% was the lowest since 2001. Pending upward [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 03 2005

  U.S. Productivity Growth Slowed Sharply

  Growth in 4Q '04 non-farm labor productivity slowed sharply to 0.8% from 1.8% growth the prior quarter. Consensus expectations had been for 2.0% growth. For the full year, growth of 4.1% was the lowest since 2001. Pending upward [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 02 2005

  Federal Funds Rate Raised to 2.50%

  As expected the Federal Open Market Committee raised the target rate for federal funds by 25 basis points to 2.50%. The discount rate also was raised 25 basis points to 3.50%. The decision was unanimous and it was the sixth increase [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 02 2005

  Mortgage Applications Recovered

  Mortgage applications recovered 7.3% last week but the average level in January remained below the December average by 1.9% according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Survey. Applications to refinance jumped 16.6% w/w and [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 02 2005

  Challenger Layoff Count Down

  Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that job cut announcements in January dropped 15.3% m/m to the lowest level since August. During the last ten years there has been an 85% (inverse) correlation between the three month moving [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 02 2005

  U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Fell Sharply

  Unit sales of light vehicles in January matched Consensus expectations and gave back all of the prior month's jump with an 11.6% decline to 16.26M. Sales of light trucks dropped 12.2% as sales of domestics skid 12.8% m/m (-4.2% y/y) [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 02 2005

  U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Fell Sharply

  Unit sales of light vehicles in January matched Consensus expectations and gave back all of the prior month's jump with an 11.6% decline to 16.26M. Sales of light trucks dropped 12.2% as sales of domestics skid 12.8% m/m (-4.2% y/y) [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief