Global| Feb 03 2005U.S. Productivity Growth Slowed Sharply
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Growth in 4Q '04 non-farm labor productivity slowed sharply to 0.8% from 1.8% growth the prior quarter. Consensus expectations had been for 2.0% growth. For the full year, growth of 4.1% was the lowest since 2001. Pending upward [...]
Growth in 4Q '04 non-farm labor productivity slowed sharply to 0.8% from 1.8% growth the prior quarter. Consensus expectations had been for 2.0% growth. For the full year, growth of 4.1% was the lowest since 2001.
Pending upward revisions to GDP growth due to raised estimates of exports (to Canada) likely will result in an upward revision to this preliminary estimate.
Slower output growth of 2.8% (4.2% y/y) versus 4.2% growth in 3Q caused the slowdown. That was partially offset by hours worked which slowed to 1.9% growth from 2.4%.
Unit labor costs grew 2.3%, the fastest since 2Q '02, though compensation growth slowed to 3.1% (3.6% y/y).
Productivity in the manufacturing sector improved to 5.6% (4.8% y/y) versus 4.2% growth in 3Q. Unit labor cost growth in the factory sector was about stable at 0.4% (-1.5% y/y).
| Non-farm Business Sector (SAAR) | 4Q '04 | 3Q '04 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Output per Hour | 0.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.4% |
| Compensation | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.3% |
| Unit Labor Costs | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% | -0.4% | -1.1% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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