Global| Feb 03 2005Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Near Four Year Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 9,000 to 316,000 last week, reversed the unrevised 7,000 increase during the prior week and landed just above the lowest levels since early 2001. Consensus expectations had been for a [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 9,000 to 316,000 last week, reversed the unrevised 7,000 increase during the prior week and landed just above the lowest levels since early 2001. Consensus expectations had been for a larger increase to 330,000 claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims fell to 331,500 (-6.8% y/y).
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 82% correlation between the level of initial claims and the y/y change in payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance declined 116,000 and reversed all of the downwardly revised gain the prior week.
The insured rate of unemployment fell back to the four year low of 2.1%.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 01/29/05 | 01/22/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 316 | 325 | -13.7% | 343 | 402 | 404 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,696 | -15.1% | 2,926 | 3,531 | 3,570 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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